2014 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Brings it to 952 mbar. It's unusual that models make stuff this strong.

Yeah true also interesting is the pattern of pumping out a string of lows on the model very typical of a active vigorous monsoon pattern.
Tthat track looks to close for comfort for the Philippines given the margin for error could be a few hundred miles either way.

00Z brings it down further to 947 mb passing very near the philippines and taiwan and recuves...Development around 90 hours originating from the monsoon trough...

[dexterlabio]

I can't access the NCEP models page. Do you have any alternative links where I can view the latest model runs?

[South Texas Storms]

I can't access the NCEP models page. Do you have any alternative links where I can view the latest model runs?

Here you go: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Finally. GFS, NAVGEM & CMC are showing at least a category 1 typhoon, with GFS & CMC showing something at a category 2-3 over the Bashi Channel. It is quite possible because the conditions are favorable enough. CMC is showing 2 typhoons having a Fujiwhara effect.


GFS




NAVGEM



CMC

[xtyphooncyclonex]

06Z run of GFS shows more or less a similar scenario with the GEM, 2 strong typhoons.

GEM is showing for 126 hrs apart a large span of typhoon-force winds over the Marianas Islands, and could bring horrible weather for euro6208!

Typhoons Neoguri and Rammasun??

[euro6208]

NWS GUAM discussion talks about the possible tropical cyclone developments. Very Very wet forecast for the islands...

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 300757 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
557 PM CHST MON JUN 30 2014

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIAN DISCUSSION SECTIONS

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EAST OF LUZON TO KOSRAE...PASSING
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM. NORTH OF THE TROUGH...GENTLE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
MARIANAS. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS INCREASING A LITTLE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...AND HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH ARE SEEN AS FAR NORTH AS 150 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS CONTINUES TO SPIN UP CIRCULATIONS IN ITS LATEST RUN...
BRINGING TWO PAST THE MARIANAS IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ONE FROM THE
EAST AND THE OTHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE SUCH AN EVENT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE GFS LOOKS WAY TOO FAST WITH THESE
DEVELOPMENTS...WHICH IS A KNOWN MODEL BIAS. THEREFORE FOR NOW
HAVE GONE WITH THE ECMWF...WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE MONSOON TROUGH
NORTH INTO THE MARIANAS AROUND FRIDAY...BUT WITHOUT ANY FAST SPIN-
UPS. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST...AS ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WORDING STILL LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR THE NEXT
5-7 DAYS WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH IN PLACE FOR A WHILE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
DISTURBANCE OR CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP THAT COULD BRING INCREASED
RAINFALL AND WINDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...BUT THERE IS
CURRENTLY NO INDICATION OF ANYTHING DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH PERSISTENT MONSOON WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES GETTING ESTABLISHED
ACROSS PALAU AND YAP...HAVE INTRODUCED A SOUTHWEST SWELL STARTING
AT 2 FEET ON WEDNESDAY AND BUILDING TO 4 FEET BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND WAVES...WILL BRING COMBINED
SEAS UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET BY THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
MODERATE RIP RISK LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FILLED IN
ACROSS KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES WHILE DRIER WEATHER IS BUILDING
IN FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. FORECASTS FOR
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WERE ADJUSTED TO ADD SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS LIFTED TO JUST NORTH
OF KOSRAE BUT REMAINS OVER POHNPEI. MODELS SHOW GENTLE TRADES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DRIER
WEATHER OVER KOSRAE ON TUESDAY AND OVER POHNPEI ON THURSDAY AS
THE MONSOON TROUGH PULLS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST. GFS INDICATES
SOME MIDWEEK MOISTURE ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WITHIN AN AREA
OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE. FOR NOW...THIS REMAINS A WEAK SIGNAL
SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THEN.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF YAP AND PALAU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS PALAU AND
YAP STATE SOUTH OF THE AXIS. HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE JUST SOUTH OF
PALAU...BUT MODELS BRING THIS WEATHER OVER THE ISLAND DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DRIER WEATHER IS SEEN THIS EVENING ON
YAP...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN THERE TOMORROW.
FORECAST REMAINS A TRICKY ONE AS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS DEVELOPING LATER IN THE WEEK NEAR
BOTH YAP AND KOROR. WEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KTS CURRENTLY IN THE
KOROR FORECAST WERE ADDED TO YAP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
COMBINED SEAS WERE ALSO BUMPED UP FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. MODELS
STILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS MORE...BUT WILL HOLD BACK FOR NOW.
IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON KOROR.
RAIN TOTALS IN RECENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE NOT WARRANTED MUCH
CONCERN. HOWEVER...HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE REMAINED OFF SHORE TO THE
SOUTH. IF THE BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED TO
THE SOUTH SHIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...RAIN TOTALS ON KOROR COULD APPROACH THE MUD SLIDE
THRESHOLD. LATEST MODEL RUN SHOWS FEWER SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY...BUT
THIS REMAINS A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN REQUIRING CLOSE MONITORING.
FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...MODELS PUSH THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS NORTH OF YAP AND KOROR...BUT WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL BE
AN ISSUE.

CHUUK WEATHER WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH
THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS STILL SHOW LESS AGREEMENT ON EXTENDED
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT DO SHOW INCREASED MOISTURE ON
THURSDAY SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO RELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BETTER FINE TUNE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. MODELS SHOW A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD ON FRIDAY.
THIS RIDGE WOULD USHER IN DRIER WEATHER FOR CHUUK ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If the CMC scenario pans out, there would be 2 tropical storms over the basin coexisting 2 days from now. It is based on their latest run. The GFS makes Neoguri form earlier than Rammasun, but this occurs in 3 days time. Also in the GFS scenario, Rammasun will be named when Neoguri would be a STS. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and NAVGEM are showing a large TS or a large minimal typhoon by the NAVGEM. Neoguri reminds me of IVAN 1997 while Rammasun is like JOAN 1997, well, the GFS showed this output last year, only resulting in 1 category 5 super typhoon which was Usagi.

[euro6208]

Monsoon trough heating up and likely to spawn multiple systems...

[euro6208]

Development...



Peak east of taiwan...



Tropical Storm Neoguri over Guam.



Neoguri strengthens to 979 mb in Philippine Sea while a new TC develops west of Guam...



Twin typhoons with Neoguri down to 970 mb and Rammasun northwest of Guam



Neoguri 951 mb approaches Philippines and Rammasun down to 966mb



Very strong Neoguri stalls off the luzon coast and Rammasun goes down further to 940mb!

[euro6208]

This is likely what the models are developing into Neoguri and Surface forecast has this reaching the Marianas deepening...

[euro6208]

Invest 90W Thread



Area southeast of Guam is now an Invest...

[euro6208]

Monsoon dominant over the area. Very high risk of rain and winds for the islands

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 010107
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1107 AM CHST TUE JUL 1 2014

PMZ161-171-172-020100-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-
1107 AM CHST TUE JUL 1 2014

...MONSOON WINDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICRONESIA...

A MONSOON PATTERN WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR ALL OF THE ISLANDS IN THE REPUBLIC
OF PALAU...YAP STATE AND CHUUK STATE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.

MARINE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL
CRAFT IN THE YAP AND PALAU AREAS. COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE RANGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET BY THURSDAY AND COULD BE LARGER
BY FRIDAY. A HAZARDOUS SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY FOR
WEST AND SOUTH FACING REEFS OF YAP AND KOROR.

HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES MIGHT ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF RIVERS AND
STREAMS AND THE RISK OF MUDSLIDES DURING THE COMING DAYS.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING
MARINE ACTIVITIES. LISTEN FOR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICES.

$$

SIMPSON

[euro6208]

91W THREAD



Area in the Palau/Yap area

[euro6208]

06Z showing a midget rammasun ?

Parade of storms continue...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This reminds me of the GFS prediction last November. Could we have a super typhoon in the near future?

[euro6208]

Tropical cyclone formations remain elevated during week 2...

[ManilaTC]

Has anyone been having problems accessing the NRL website lately?

[Hurricane_Luis]

Has anyone been having problems accessing the NRL website lately?

Yes I have, chrome says its loading but nothing comes up, just a white page.

[hurricanes1234]

Has anyone been having problems accessing the NRL website lately?

Yes, on my Kindle it says it's loading, then after a while it comes up with "Webpage not available".

[euro6208]

TSR lowers its forecast but still expects the 2014 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will be
the most active since 2004. TSR predicts activity will be about 10% above the
1965-2013 climate norm.


July 3rd update out...

26 Tropical Storms
16 Typhoons
9 Intense Typhoons (Major)
ACE of 335

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

A decrease since the last update 2 months ago but still calling for a very active season...