2015 Global model runs discussion

[tropicwatch]

The navgem is pretty cool. Looks to lay out where the trough might be early Monday morning.

[NCSTORMMAN]

This is my first post on here but I follow this site a lot when storms are approaching or if I want to check the tropics. Is there any chance of something developing in the Gulf of Mexico? Seems like conditions may be better at least SST wise. That is not an official forecast or anything from me just a question.

Welcome 'NC... Well, there's a chance for a "home brew" type system to form from any remnant frontal trough that might dip into the N. Gulf, or we were to see any disturbance bubble up perhaps from the Western Caribbean. Right now though, there doesn't seem to be any significant model support to assume that should occur anytime in the foreseeable future. Then again, each day is a different day and one never knows when one or more forecast models might begin to start sniffing out some new disturbance. Recent days have begun to suggest that perhaps one or more lows might be prospects for development between the Southeast Conus and Bermuda, but once again, model support here has at least temporarily waned. I personally wouldn't think there will be an uptick in activity until perhaps the beginning of August.

Thanks for your input. I see some models are showing systems and others are not. I think in my opinion that there will be two storms. One in the Atlantic off the southeast and one in the Gulf of Mexico west of Florida. Of course I will probably be wrong (check my signature). I just have that feeling though.

[NCSTORMMAN]

The navgem is pretty cool. Looks to lay out where the trough might be early Monday morning.

http://tropicwatch.info/navgem_mslp_uv850_us_17.png

So, each one of the Low Pressures could be a storm in the making? Am I reading that correctly?

[wxman57]

The navgem is pretty cool. Looks to lay out where the trough might be early Monday morning.

http://tropicwatch.info/navgem_mslp_uv850_us_17.png

So, each one of the Low Pressures could be a storm in the making? Am I reading that correctly?

No, the model is indicating general low pressure along a frontal boundary. It's not indicating the formation of 4 tropical storms.

[NCSTORMMAN]

The navgem is pretty cool. Looks to lay out where the trough might be early Monday morning.

http://tropicwatch.info/navgem_mslp_uv850_us_17.png

So, each one of the Low Pressures could be a storm in the making? Am I reading that correctly?

No, the model is indicating general low pressure along a frontal boundary. It's not indicating the formation of 4 tropical storms.

Okay thanks for clarifying that I am not a weatherman. Could any of those spawn a tropical cyclone?

[TheStormExpert]

Okay thanks for clarifying that I am not a weatherman. Could any of those spawn a tropical cyclone?

Yes, but only one Tropical Cyclone would likely come from them.

[Hammy]

Euro is developing a low off of NC in 24 hours (though short lived), another off of Florida in 72 hours, and a third at 144 hours in the general vicinity (maybe a bit east) of where Claudette formed. The second one (off of Florida) seems to be the most likely to develop, as per the model and location.

NAM is also showing the low off of NC in about a day, but also does not seem to develop it. (the low is already forming in eastern SC but unlike Claudette, the shear seems far too high)

GFS, which doesn't seem to do well especially with non-tropical origin genesis, is just spitting several 24-hour lows off of the southeast coast.

[emeraldislenc]

what direction would the one in 72 hours off the coast of Florida head?

[Hammy]

what direction would the one in 72 hours off the coast of Florida head?

Pretty much everything is going out to sea by the looks of things, but it could sit a few hundred miles offshore for a day or two first based on the model.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Euro is developing a low off of NC in 24 hours (though short lived), another off of Florida in 72 hours, and a third at 144 hours in the general vicinity (maybe a bit east) of where Claudette formed. The second one (off of Florida) seems to be the most likely to develop, as per the model and location.

NAM is also showing the low off of NC in about a day, but also does not seem to develop it. (the low is already forming in eastern SC but unlike Claudette, the shear seems far too high)

GFS, which doesn't seem to do well especially with non-tropical origin genesis, is just spitting several 24-hour lows off of the southeast coast.

So, the Gulf of Mexico should be quiet?

[gatorcane]

Yep the Euro continues to show development now. It starts in 3-4 days off the NE Florida coast so it's looking like development chances are increasing. Usually if the Euro is showing something in this range it nearly always happens. Maybe we get a mention by the NHC in the next outlook or two as we are almost within 5 days when genesis would occur?

[Ntxw]

So, the Gulf of Mexico should be quiet?

Not necessarily quiet just not likely to see development per the models there. Certain runs they show lower pressures as height falls, but so far per consensus somewhere off of the SE US coast looks most likely. And as wxman57 mentioned any development will be moving away thus at this time no direct impacts as the eastern US trof/front kicks everything east/northeastward on guidance.

[TheStormExpert]

We can't rule out a Arthur like track from last season, and by the looks of it the Euro develops barely a Tropical Storm.

[NCSTORMMAN]

So, the Gulf of Mexico should be quiet?

Not necessarily quiet just not likely to see development per the models there. Certain runs they show lower pressures as height falls, but so far per consensus somewhere off of the SE US coast looks most likely. And as wxman57 mentioned any development will be moving away thus at this time no direct impacts as the eastern US trof/front kicks everything east/northeastward on guidance.

Okay thanks. I really appreciate you guys breaking stuff down.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: We can't rule out a Arthur like track from last season, and by the looks of it the Euro develops barely a Tropical Storm.

It's possible, Arthur had a stronger ridge to the north of it though thus keeping it around longer and pushing it closer in. As of right now, per the Euro the ridge breaks down much quicker to the east coast trof. But we are still talking beyond 5 days on movement.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: We can't rule out a Arthur like track from last season, and by the looks of it the Euro develops barely a Tropical Storm.

It's possible, Arthur had a stronger ridge to the north of it though thus keeping it around longer and pushing it closer in. As of right now, per the Euro the ridge breaks down much quicker to the east coast trof. But we are still talking beyond 5 days on movement.

Still has it paralleling the coast close enough that it wouldn't take much of a left shift before the OBX of NC get skirted it seems.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z UKMET is on board with development and close to the 12Z ECMWF. With these two reliable models on board, you got to think the NHC will pull the trigger and mention in one of their upcoming outlooks as we are within the 5 day window (though barely). May just wait for one more cycle of models before doing so, so maybe the 2AMEST outlook?



12Z ECMWF for comparison:

[NCSTORMMAN]

All I know is we are having some rough weather here in Southport, NC to the southwest of Wilmington, NC

[sandyb]

We had the worst storms here in Newport/Morehead City today that I have ever seen from the low that came across our state. I don't know if we have had a hurricane that strong before.

[NCSTORMMAN]

We had the worst storms here in Newport/Morehead City today that I have ever seen from the low that came across our state. I don't know if we have had a hurricane that strong before.

Yeah the weather has been bad at the coast today. Let us hope these models are right about the storms forming not hitting our coast.