Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[toad strangler]

snippet from today's CSU update... I'm guessing the odds for a west coast peninsular FL landfall are lower than the rest as it's not cited. OR the entire peninsula (East and West) is included with the whole East Coast


PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)
HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL

AREAS (AFTER 4 AUGUST):
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline - 74% (full-season average for last century is
52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 49% (full-season average for last
century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 48% (fullseason average for last century is 30%)

[NDG]

That's about as an aggressive forecast from the CSU team as they can get, they see the evidence for such forecast.

[SFLcane]

Anything from TSR?

[mcheer23]

Anything from TSR?

24/10/4
ACE 166

[CyclonicFury]

Anything from TSR?

Yes. 24-10-4 166 ACE
http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... ug2020.pdf

[TampaFl]

snippet from today's CSU update... I'm guessing the odds for a west coast peninsular FL landfall are lower than the rest as it's not cited. OR the entire peninsula (East and West) is included with the whole East Coast


PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)
HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL

AREAS (AFTER 4 AUGUST):
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline - 74% (full-season average for last century is
52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 49% (full-season average for last
century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 48% (fullseason average for last century is 30%)

Toad Strangler totally I agree with your point on "OR the entire peninsula (East and West) is included with the whole East Coast". Either way those numbers & percentages are just mind blowing!!

[SFLcane]

Anything from TSR?

24/10/4
ACE 166

That's not that active actually compared to others. Lower end is definitely possible if dry air sticks around.

[CyclonicFury]

Anything from TSR?

24/10/4
ACE 166

That's not that active actually compared to others. Lower end is definitely possible if dry air sticks around.

TSR has always been conservative with ACE totals lately in their August forecasts.

August 2019 prediction: 100 ACE (Actual: 130 ACE)
August 2018 prediction: 58 ACE (Actual: 129 ACE)
August 2017 prediction: 116 ACE (Actual: 224 ACE)
August 2016 prediction: 94 ACE (Actual: 141 ACE)

[cycloneye]

TSR is now posted on the first post list.

[toad strangler]

Anything from TSR?

24/10/4
ACE 166

That's not that active actually compared to others. Lower end is definitely possible if dry air sticks around.

But they didn't cite dry air as far as I can tell. Might have missed it though.

[cycloneye]

No mention of dry air.

[EquusStorm]

Given the major SAL outbreaks that made up August 2017 I hardly think dry air will be relevant as we enter the heart of the season; even if it hangs around, which is unlikely since it clears up virtually every year in late August if y'all be patient, it would only worsen the threat to the US with later-developing systems too late to recurve

Part of me wants to say a total of 24 named storms seems hard to reach, but we had 16 named storms last year after August 20 in only a technically slightly above average season...

[SFLcane]

24/10/4
ACE 166

That's not that active actually compared to others. Lower end is definitely possible if dry air sticks around.

TSR has always been conservative with ACE totals lately in their August forecasts.

August 2019 prediction: 100 ACE (Actual: 130 ACE)
August 2018 prediction: 58 ACE (Actual: 129 ACE)
August 2017 prediction: 116 ACE (Actual: 224 ACE)
August 2016 prediction: 94 ACE (Actual: 141 ACE)

Do they have older forecasts? Like 2010?

[CyclonicFury]

That's not that active actually compared to others. Lower end is definitely possible if dry air sticks around.

TSR has always been conservative with ACE totals lately in their August forecasts.

August 2019 prediction: 100 ACE (Actual: 130 ACE)
August 2018 prediction: 58 ACE (Actual: 129 ACE)
August 2017 prediction: 116 ACE (Actual: 224 ACE)
August 2016 prediction: 94 ACE (Actual: 141 ACE)

Do they have older forecasts? Like 2010?

Here's a complete archive going back to 1999:
http://tropicalstormrisk.com/for_hurr.html

[St0rmTh0r]

Given the major SAL outbreaks that made up August 2017 I hardly think dry air will be relevant as we enter the heart of the season; even if it hangs around, which is unlikely since it clears up virtually every year in late August if y'all be patient, it would only worsen the threat to the US with later-developing systems too late to recurve

Part of me wants to say a total of 24 named storms seems hard to reach, but we had 16 named storms last year after August 20 in only a technically slightly above average season...

It is very likely that actual activity exceeds all forecasts. I remember back in 05 the midseason forecasts were way under. Looking at the pattern there is a strong chance of several very HIGH impacts along the coasts. This is about as dangerous a season as you'll see. The pace this season is on would put the totals over 30. I think how strong the nina gets will determine if it's over or under I'm leaning towards over

[psyclone]

The west coast of Florida is considered part of the east coast for CSU calc purposes...hence the term "florida peninsula". What a terrifying...dare i say...shart worthy forecast from the normally reserved gang at CSU. The northern hemisphere's TC energy is likely to bundle in the Atlantic basin this year...much as it did in 2017.

[cycloneye]

Not so fast.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1291091500781035520

[toad strangler]

Not so fast.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1291091500781035520

This was pretty much a given no? I thought so ...

[cycloneye]

Here is the screenshot of the CSU 2 week forecast.

[cycloneye]

The two week forecast from CSU is now posted on the first post.Below is the link.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-0805.pdf