2020 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 19 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A more concentrated
low pressure system could form within this region during the next
few days and environmental conditions could support some slow
development of the system through early next week while it moves
generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS has a system forming west of the 0/30 in 4 days. NHC needs a yellow marker.

Also continues to move the timeframe up in regards to two storms further east. 0z run plows one into Cabo San Lucas by day 11 not that I trust steering currents that far out.

[Yellow Evan]

Just for some broader context to show how much GFS/ECMWF have been struggling. This is last week's 10 day ECMWF.

[Kingarabian]

I mean this shear map shows why:
https://i.imgur.com/P1PvdjH.png

Looks like there’s a TUTT placed over the western Hawaiian Islands and the shear belt extends all the way through the East Pacific into Mexico and even the Gulf of Mexico. Wouldn’t this be typical of a La Niña season?

TUTT's are always present near the Hawaiian islands. I'm not too concerned about the shear right now as we've seen the same setup in the past couple of years. This is a atypical La Nina setup, similar to 2016 and 2017. The cooler waters are not really extending past 7N (yet). So as long as this is true, the EPAC should be able to muster our some storms until the Nina completely takes over.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS only has a system further west and still shows a hurricane into Baja California Sur.



12z GFS through 96 days. Now at least hinting at two systems.

[cycloneye]

Now there are two.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
could support some slow development of this system through early
next week while the disturbance moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. An area of disturbed weather has developed a few hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Some slow development of this
system is possible through early next week as it moves westward,
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Latto

[Yellow Evan]

[Astromanía]

Baja California Sur is still on the target?

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF has 2 weak storms in 10 days, both fairly far west.

[Kingarabian]

Weird how disturbances are struggling to spinup in the Eastern EPAC and models delay development till they reach 120W-130W.

[cycloneye]

Is now a trio.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 20 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
could support some slow development of this system through early
next week while the disturbance moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. An area of disturbed weather has developed a few hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Some slow development of this
system is possible through early next week as it moves westward,
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

3. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the
coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. Additional development
could then occur as the system moves west-northwestward parallel to
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[Kingarabian]

The recent GFS runs show the 0/30 system beginning to come together in 48 hours. It should be the favored system, and should be tagged as an invest soon as that's what models have been the most consistent about.

[AnnularCane]

Is now a trio.

"Soon the duet will become a trio..."


Sound of Music reference. Sorry about that.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS is more of the same. Shows the 10/30 briefly developing, 0/30 is the stronger signal, and 0/20 develops into a robust system that interact with a system further to its west before slamming into Baja and Sinaloa.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at some of the other models other than the GFS/ECMWF, 12z NASA develops the 0/20 only and the 0z run shows the 0/20 and a more robust hurricane behind it. ICON, JMA, and UKMET do not show any systems, however.

[Kingarabian]

Looking at some of the other models other than the GFS/ECMWF, 12z NASA develops the 0/20 only and the 0z run shows the 0/20 and a more robust hurricane behind it. ICON, JMA, and UKMET do not show any systems, however.

Would like the UKMET to get on board. Was a good performer over the past few years. CMC acknowledges both 0 and 10/30 systems. Favors the 0/20. NASA and ICON models are pretty useless IMO. JMA is also useless with its public resolution.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at some of the other models other than the GFS/ECMWF, 12z NASA develops the 0/20 only and the 0z run shows the 0/20 and a more robust hurricane behind it. ICON, JMA, and UKMET do not show any systems, however.

Would like the UKMET to get on board. Was a good performer over the past few years. CMC acknowledges both 0 and 10/30 systems. Favors the 0/20. NASA and ICON models are pretty useless IMO. JMA is also useless with its public resolution.

I've seen the NASA sniff stuff out before the GFS/ECMWF have in the past, though I haven't looked at that model much the last 1-2 years.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1274495866288685056

[Yellow Evan]

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS run continues with the 0/30 development.