2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Kingarabian]

In regards to this potential future BOC system, it will come down to steering. 18z GFS has this crashing into CA/Mexico.



Also something following it in the Caribbean Sea. Although these two features are modeled weak, Franklin 2017, and Harvey were also very weak before they made it into the BOC. Granted they developed two months later than these modeled systems.

[TampaBull]

I believe the system entering BOC is the same system some models were showing potential spin-up around the 15th near the Lesser Antilles.

[StruThiO]

6z GFS 240h



00z ECWMF 240h

[Aric Dunn]

Euro and EPS are slowly increasing .. Solid tropical wave enters the western carrib... From the timing, it looks like the Tropical wave Crossing 40 west currently. It is actually a well defined wave, dry at the moment, but as it approaches the islands looks like models juice it up.. then buy the time it gets into the western carrib things look decent.

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS is getting a little frosty starting in 6 to 7 days in the western carrib.

[Cpv17]

12z GFS is getting a little frosty starting in 6 to 7 days in the western carrib.

Yeah at least it’s something to watch and keep us entertained.

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS is getting a little frosty starting in 6 to 7 days in the western carrib.

Yeah at least it’s something to watch and keep us entertained.

EURO, GFS, ICON showing something.. 7 to 10 days out.. I would say it is definitely something to watch. especially since there is a wave to track with it ..

[SFLcane]

12z GFS is getting a little frosty starting in 6 to 7 days in the western carrib.

[Aric Dunn]

14 days from now.. lol

[Cpv17]

12z GFS is getting a little frosty starting in 6 to 7 days in the western carrib.

Yeah at least it’s something to watch and keep us entertained.

EURO, GFS, ICON showing something.. 7 to 10 days out.. I would say it is definitely something to watch. especially since there is a wave to track with it ..

I haven’t really looked at any other models besides the GFS yet, but it’s literally pushing north towards the FL panhandle and pushing a building ridge backwards lol at least from what I can tell.

[SFLcane]

Models suggesting development once again.

[Aric Dunn]

it actually starts coming together in as little as 48 to 72 hours.. thought it was the wave in te Atlantic that eventually sparks it off but its not

so looks like we only get a few days break everyone lol

[aspen]

It’s only June 7th, and not only have we had 3 named storms, but the models are hinting at up to two more forming in the next 10 days. This is going to be a really long season, isn’t it?

[Cpv17]

It’s only June 7th, and not only have we had 3 named storms, but the models are hinting at up to two more forming in the next 10 days. This is going to be a really long season, isn’t it?

Do you live along the Gulf coast? Honestly I think every state along the Gulf will be hit this year. Louisiana is already crossed off the list.

[aspen]

It’s only June 7th, and not only have we had 3 named storms, but the models are hinting at up to two more forming in the next 10 days. This is going to be a really long season, isn’t it?

Do you live along the Gulf coast? Honestly I think every state along the Gulf will be hit this year. Louisiana is already crossed off the list.

Nope, I’m all the way up in CT. But it’s going to be a long season for people in the Gulf and meteorologists and weather enthusiasts in general.

[SFLcane]

Hmm..The system that develops comes when the wave that moves into that region around Day 8. Almost no GEFS signal for now.

[shiny-pebble]

Of course these storms will be June slop storms but the fact that models are showing possibly two more storms for June is concerning. The models and the tropics were dead this time last year and two years ago. Wonder what August and September will bring...

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[cajungal]

It’s only June 7th, and not only have we had 3 named storms, but the models are hinting at up to two more forming in the next 10 days. This is going to be a really long season, isn’t it?

Do you live along the Gulf coast? Honestly I think every state along the Gulf will be hit this year. Louisiana is already crossed off the list.

I would hope you would be right. But in 2005, Louisiana was hit 3 times. Cindy, Katrina, and Rita.

[Cpv17]

It’s only June 7th, and not only have we had 3 named storms, but the models are hinting at up to two more forming in the next 10 days. This is going to be a really long season, isn’t it?

Do you live along the Gulf coast? Honestly I think every state along the Gulf will be hit this year. Louisiana is already crossed off the list.

I would hope you would be right. But in 2005, Louisiana was hit 3 times. Cindy, Katrina, and Rita.

Louisiana is a magnet to tc’s. I’m confident LA will get hit again and probably by something stronger.

[toad strangler]

Of course these storms will be June slop storms but the fact that models are showing possibly two more storms for June is concerning. The models and the tropics were dead this time last year and two years ago. Wonder what August and September will bring...

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don't forget October!