2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[JetFuel_SE]

https://i.imgur.com/Bg6ZVMZ.png
EC monthlies forecast an active Atlantic.

Yeah idk about that one.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/Zi8y8MA.png
https://i.imgur.com/99TtItN.png
Euro also shows a huge AMO+ and a fairly wet Atlantic for peak hurricane season.

Wow, it looks like that forecast still calls for the -PDO to last during the JAS timeframe, but the +AMO in the Atlantic looks about as classic and healthy as you can get. Quite a stark difference between that and, say, last year.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/Zi8y8MA.png
https://i.imgur.com/99TtItN.png
Euro also shows a huge AMO+ and a fairly wet Atlantic for peak hurricane season.

I’ve never seen such conflicting signals before. Strong El Niño vs an insane +AMO. Which one will win out? Who knows at this point. However, I’m still leaning towards a near-average season with comparable storm tracks and formation hotspots as 2018 (decent tropical EAtl activity, fruitful subtropics, a complete graveyard in the tropical WAtl that kills any MDR systems that get too close). The Nino shear should, in theory, be enough to put a lid on this season.

Imagine if we had a neutral or -ENSO this year with that SSTA configuration. We’d have a really good shot of breaking 200 ACE with that.

[SFLcane]

That's 9 hurricanes folks!

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1654481052549742599

[DorkyMcDorkface]

About 17 NS and 9 HU lol during a potentially strong Niño lol

[SFLcane]

Thank you!

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1654484750571286528

[SFLcane]

Drop this one here too...

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1654489134486962182

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1654490823713517571

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1654501396417245185

[cycloneye]

And then comes the lowering MSLP for June, July and August.

[SFLcane]

And then comes the lowering MSLP for June, July and August.

https://i.imgur.com/OePB5Q5.png

That is alot of blue were it matters

[Yellow Evan]

And then comes the lowering MSLP for June, July and August.

https://i.imgur.com/OePB5Q5.png

That is alot of blue were it matters

It's also highly unrealistic for a strong El Nino with the increase in surface divergence over the Caribbean that such pattern usually brings.

[NotSparta]

And then comes the lowering MSLP for June, July and August.

https://i.imgur.com/OePB5Q5.png

This is kind of wild to see during an oncoming moderate/strong El Niño from a model that used to bathe the Atlantic in red if ENSO wasn't foregone La Niña. Really shows the bias switch

[WeatherBoy2000]

And then comes the lowering MSLP for June, July and August.

https://i.imgur.com/OePB5Q5.png

This is kind of wild to see during an oncoming moderate/strong El Niño from a model that used to bathe the Atlantic in red if ENSO wasn't foregone La Niña. Really shows the bias switch

The euro predicted a really active season last year and that did not pan out. When considering the likely robust el nino that's coming up, I think it's leaning too much in favor of the Atlantic again.

[Zonacane]

And then comes the lowering MSLP for June, July and August.

https://i.imgur.com/OePB5Q5.png

That would be an enormous hurricane outbreak. Nino and early season be damned

[Category5Kaiju]

With considering everything that is happening now, I am going to go on a limb and say that I genuinely do not think there are any good comparison years with 2023, at least in recent times. I see 2002, 2006, and 2009 thrown around quite a bit, but those three years had very dry Sahel regions, and their inactivity was basically compounded by decent strength El Ninos. 1982, 1997, and 2015 were Super Nino years, and I don't think this year will see anything that strong. El Nino years in the 1980s and 1990s had anomalously cold Atlantic sea surface temperatures, so I don't think those are very good analog years either.

We might need to look further back in time for analog years. I see Eric Webb has mentioned years like 1899, 1965, and 1969 being plausible analogs. I also wonder if we could throw 1951, 1953, and 1963 into the mix too.

[cycloneye]

Agree with him.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1654484750571286528

[gatorcane]

Looks like El Niño and possibly a strong one is imminent looking at the latest SST anomaly maps. Should be a lot of shear over the Caribbean and Gulf this hurricane season. Could see some big storms further out into the Central and East Atlantic though given the higher SST anomalies there and since those regions won’t be as impacted by the El Nino shear. Thinking Cape Verde and even Azores may have to watch.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1654599311324479489

[chaser1]

That's it, I've seen enough. The unusually positive AMO will prove to be the "gasoline", whereas El Nino might actually serve as an anticyclonic "flint" for northeast motion tropical development. What began early this year as mild curiosity, has rapidly transitioned into an outright fear and concern this season for everyone...........
East of 30W. Laugh now Iceland, but you may have just entered - the "warm zone"