T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[Extremeweatherguy]

URNT12 KNHC 261842
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/1754Z
B. 15 DEG 43 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1415 M
D. 40 KT
E. 334 DEG 27 NM
F. 118 DEG 51 KT
G. 017 DEG 591 NM
H. 997 MB
I. 15 C/ 1523 M
J. 22 C/ 1511 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.2/3 NM
P. AF304 0405A ERNESTO
MAX FL WIND INBOUND 51 KT NE QUAD 1718Z.
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 58 KT NE QUAD AT 1757Z

wow! Still 997mb and 58kt. FL winds.

[JonathanBelles]

does anyone have the splosh model? (the surge and wind one)

[gatorcane]

How come it looks like it has gained significant lattitude since yesterday. The outflow is now north of the Greater Antilles.

[tallywx]

Plot of new center fix shows Ernesto off to the NE of the 2 p.m. advisory position.

My gut tells me this thing will pass to the NORTH of Jamaica, perhaps by a significant margin.

[Bailey1777]

Good question.

[StormTracker]

What's the normal time-frame for a flight to report findings? If they went in at 11:15a.m. and it's 3:00p.m. now, I hope everything went ok on their mission!

[CalmBeforeStorm]

URNT12 KNHC 261842
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/1754Z
B. 15 DEG 43 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1415 M
D. 40 KT
E. 334 DEG 27 NM
F. 118 DEG 51 KT
G. 017 DEG 591 NM
H. 997 MB
I. 15 C/ 1523 M
J. 22 C/ 1511 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.2/3 NM
P. AF304 0405A ERNESTO
MAX FL WIND INBOUND 51 KT NE QUAD 1718Z.
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 58 KT NE QUAD AT 1757Z

wow! Still 997mb and 58kt. FL winds.

This position, roughly 15.8 71.2, represents a repositioning back towards the east and more in the convection, from the 2:00 NHC plot.

[gatorcane]

yep this track should probably shift right again with the center trying to form again farther NE....just great.

[Innotech]

on Sat it almost seems like Ernesto waited for shear to slacken and then just yanked the convection back over the LLc.

[ALhurricane]

URNT12 KNHC 261842
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/1754Z
B. 15 DEG 43 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1415 M
D. 40 KT
E. 334 DEG 27 NM
F. 118 DEG 51 KT
G. 017 DEG 591 NM
H. 997 MB
I. 15 C/ 1523 M
J. 22 C/ 1511 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.2/3 NM
P. AF304 0405A ERNESTO
MAX FL WIND INBOUND 51 KT NE QUAD 1718Z.
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 58 KT NE QUAD AT 1757Z

wow! Still 997mb and 58kt. FL winds.

This position, roughly 15.8 71.2, represents a repositioning back towards the east and more in the convection, from the 2:00 NHC plot.

Definitely further back in the convection than previously thought. Also look at lines I and J. There is now a 7C difference in temperature from inside the center compared to outside of the center. That is the 'best' it has looked.

[ConvergenceZone]

yep this track should probably shift right again with the center trying to form again farther NE....just great.

that might be good news for Florida though gator, becauses if it goes over enough of the landmass of Cuba, we all know what will happen to the storm then, there won't be much of a storm left.

[gatorcane]

does anybody notice the gain in lattitude? Is it just me?

[Epsilon_Fan]

he wants to be a hurricane, if only shear will let him

[Brent]

What's the normal time-frame for a flight to report findings? If they went in at 11:15a.m. and it's 3:00p.m. now, I hope everything went ok on their mission!

That vortex is recent(just before 2pm ET)... they are fine.

[Damar91]

yep this track should probably shift right again with the center trying to form again farther NE....just great.

I feel your pain!

[jpigott]

given the significant jump north in latitude I think some of us on the board here (including pro-mets) owe an apology to the GFS.

[teal61]

Just as I suspected about 20 pages ago.The center has been relocated to the east. I know some will say that its moving NW but I don't think so, the over all system is still moving WNW.

[Innotech]

Looks like it is being inhibted to the north by the mountains of Hispaniola

Its really gaining symettry lately. I think its about to get out of the shear and get down to business....
Its also well north of forecast point. Center relocation most probably.

[ALhurricane]

given the significant jump north in latitude I think some of us on the board here (including pro-mets) owe an apology to the GFS.

I will take your wink as meaning that statement was in jest.

No apologies to the GFS. It still won't be right.

[Extremeweatherguy]

given the significant jump north in latitude I think some of us on the board here (including pro-mets) owe an apology to the GFS.

no, no one owes an apology to the GFS. This slight jump north is a repositioning of the center, not the motion. The final track will change very little (if much at all) due to this.