TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Bocadude85]

Even so, the USA is PROBABLY safe, because even with the turn west, it will be at such a high altitutde lat/long wise that it will be hard for it NOT to recurve out to sea, unless there's something sitting on top of it blocking it from doing so.

Remember Jeanne of 2004?

[Nimbus]

Now what does the CMC at 144 hours remind me of? With all these pidly 2006 tropical storms this season I can't remember whether that ridge scenario was in place for another storm or not. You have to ask yourself one question. Do you feel lucky?

[SouthFloridawx]

The 00Z Nagaps did not develop this system.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr

I wouldn't be waiting for it too urgently.

[SouthFLTropics]

You can clearly see the trough to the north of this system that is going to pull it north into the Atlantic. It does appear though that this trough probably will pull out and be replaced by the Bermuda high once again. I believe that the models are picking up on that. The big question then is when this system turns back to the west, how far west does it get before turning back to the North and then hopefully Northeast. It will most likely come down to timing with the next trough coming across the CONUS. Hopefully it will pick it up and kick it out to sea before this thing makes it to the coast. I do believe though that the islands should be safe at this time. The current trough to the north of the system will probably be enough to pull it far enough north to miss the islands. The Bahama's on the other hand may be an entirely different proposition. As always, its a wait and see game.

[Hurricaneman]

Im going to monitor this one, butthe timing of the trough is going to be the deciding factor

[ALhurricane]

The GFS and ECMWF have been persistent in forecasting a trough over the central and eastern U.S. for the next 7 to 10 days. I see very little way that Florence-to-be threatens the U.S. at all. This one will likely remain out to sea.

[SouthFloridawx]

SouthFLTropics:
I agree with you... It is very plain to see what is pulling 90L towards the north.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html
I wonder if it is going to survive that ULT.

[cycloneye]

The 00Z Nagaps did not develop this system.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr

I wouldn't be waiting for it too urgently.

Yes,NOGAPS is= I dont know why that model does not see this system.

[HURAKAN]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13.3N
38.7W OR ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11.5N-16N BETWEEN 37W AND
43W. THIS LOW IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NWWD AT
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE WARM OCEAN WATERS. IF THE CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON.

[HurricaneHunter914]

If 90L forms soon, she will be a CV Storm right?

[skysummit]

If you left town for a TS, you have no clue.
unless you live right on the beach, there is no reason to evac for a TS.

Now that you've shown your lack of knowledge in geography, I'll leave that alone.

the reason i posted this is because someone said that they didn't want to be affected by any storm. If you are scared by hurricanes, then move somewhere else

I've been through more hurricanes and recovery efforts than you can dream of. Believe me, I'm not scared of them by any means, however these types of posts that you make, will allow the respect you've gained from other members go downhill pretty quick.

[wxman57]

The GFS and ECMWF have been persistent in forecasting a trough over the central and eastern U.S. for the next 7 to 10 days. I see very little way that Florence-to-be threatens the U.S. at all. This one will likely remain out to sea.

Would that be the same GFS and ECMWF that forecast the strong ridge over Florida that would certainly prevent Ernesto from heading in that direction?

I do notice a westward trend in the GFS, moving Florence closer to the east U.S. Coast, so I'm just a LITTLE more concerned that it could become a threat to the Mid Atlantic Coast.

[AZRainman]

Nice image, by the looks of 90L it should get a TD status.

[rnbaida]

Winds at 126 hours for the GFDL model for 90L
Looks like 80-90kt winds

[rnbaida]

convection doenst look very good...

[ConvergenceZone]

The GFS and ECMWF have been persistent in forecasting a trough over the central and eastern U.S. for the next 7 to 10 days. I see very little way that Florence-to-be threatens the U.S. at all. This one will likely remain out to sea.

You are probably right, and as I stated in an earlier thread, having them curve out to sea is NORMAL, and not curving out to sea is AbNormal. So this is typical...

What we will need to worry about from here on out is Carib and Gulf of Mexico storms, and it looks like they will be the only threats to the USA....

[HurricaneHunter914]

It's going through the diurnal minimum so it's very normal for this to happen. Still, 90L has a great outflow and circulation to it.

[skysummit]

It's going through the diurnal minimum so it's very normal for this to happen. Still, 90L has a great outflow and circulation to it.

Yup...the convection is the easy part.

[WeatherEmperor]

The GFS and ECMWF have been persistent in forecasting a trough over the central and eastern U.S. for the next 7 to 10 days. I see very little way that Florence-to-be threatens the U.S. at all. This one will likely remain out to sea.

Do you have links to other global models that agree with this trough over the eastern US the next 7-10 days?

<RICKY>

[rnbaida]

It's going through the diurnal minimum so it's very normal for this to happen. Still, 90L has a great outflow and circulation to it.

right that is what i thought, but the outflow does look very good. I think we should have a TD by 5pm.... Anyone else think so too?