Akash and Gonu thread

[mempho]

Sorry about the oversized graphics...I'm not sure how I can resize them.

[mempho]

Looks like they did it automatically when I reloaded.

[Cyclenall]

Gonu is actually holding up pretty well for where it is. I'm surprised there isn't a huge amount of dry air sucked in already and by the looks of it, the eye is coming back.

[AZRainman]

Prices are rising because oil production is peaking. The key element at the moment is that Ghawar, Saudi Arabia's crown jewel, has apparently joined Mexico's Cantarell in the rapid decline list. Production is limiting, not shipping. Now short-term, yes, blocking the Straits for a couple days will send prices up. But only in the short term, assuming no port damage.

Here's a prime example of the tanker boom and how it benefited those who paid attention:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=OSG&t=5y

Your continued lack of reputable data/links in regards to spare tanker capacity is apparent, so I will presume you have no data and are just guessing cause it sounds good. So why don't you show me the charts that says oil production and tanker transportation has been declining over the last few years. Maybe you can also tell me how the Saudis plan to increase oil production 40% by 2009, if Ghawar is almost tapped out.

Limited tanker capacity is all booked for months in advance and even tankers being used to "store oil" in the gulf. Add in more hot wars where the US military is now the biggest purchaser of oil in the world, higher demand, supply line problems, labor strikes, climate change, market volatility, and less reinvesting in the refining industry are all factors in price.

The tanker boom is fueled by high demand for oil and its transportation. The booming tanker market is also occurring because double hauled tankers are being built to replace the old ones in which single hauled tankers will all have to be scrapped by 2010. Also, Venezuela now imports less crude to the US, where as tankers are undergoing longer transportation distances and thus that has increased the ton/mile transportation demand which ties up tankers for longer periods of time, not to mention the backlogs of full tankers sitting idle in US ports due to limited refining and storage capacity. We can also include the rogue waves and more volatile seas due to climate change that capsizing more ships and disrupting supply lines.

So I don't count on oil prices rebounding this summer and tankers will not pick up slack. Oil and transport use has not subsided over the last several years and that is regardless of oil fields playing out, where China is picking up all the demand and is forecasted to become the leading energy consumer in the coming years.

Gonu is going to be a surprise to many on how it factors into pricing and the tropical season has just started, where an active and severe hurricane season holds no benefit to lowering crude or fuel prices.

[Zardoz]

As predicted, the dry desert air is already starting to break it up:

MET-7 Infrared

It shouldn't have any significant effect on the oil industry. Folks living along the coast, on the other hand, will consider it significant, indeed.

This is a most unusual event. Whether or not it is a portent of the future remains to be seen.

[Coredesat]

Interestingly enough, it does seem the eye is beginning to poke back out again. I guess there was an eyewall replacement cycle, though it didn't look like a normal cycle due to dry air entrainment.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/I ... .100pc.jpg

You can really see where the dry air has weakened the convection, though not quite as much as I'd expect from an airmass that dry.

[Zardoz]

...Maybe you can also tell me how the Saudis plan to increase oil production 40% by 2009, if Ghawar is almost tapped out...

They aren't. That was a burst of PR nonsense they put out to serve some immediate strategic purpose at the time. They put out crap like that all the time, and have been doing so for years. They have since back-pedalled on that and are now saying that they "won't need to increase production". The truth is that they are essentially maxed out, and can't produce any more even if they wanted to. There is a mountain of evidence indicating that Ghawar is in decline.

You need to catch up on what is really going on. These people can help you:

http://www.peakoil.com/forums.html

[Coredesat]

I should note that this thread is about the storm and not about oil production; you should probably go to Off Topic to discuss that.

A lot of the recent posts on the last three pages have been less and less relevant to the storm itself and more to the Middle Eastern oil industry as a whole. Yes, Gonu will have an effect. No, we don't know what it might be. I think the fact that it could affect a city of 600,000 that has not seen a tropical cyclone of Gonu's intensity in recorded history is probably more important.

EDIT:

Here's a very interesting blog post on Weather Underground about the area (it's actually a guest post by Margie Kieper and Steve Gregory, since Jeff Masters is on vacation):

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200706

It does contain a forecast, but it's not my own, and I'm not sure if I should throw up the disclaimer; I won't since that's not what I'm pointing people to.

[AZRainman]

You need to catch up on what is really going on. These people can help you:

http://www.peakoil.com/forums.html

They also say production hasn't peaked yet, so your point is in regards to the present storm?



If go back a few pages and see that I posted this link that referenced Gonu and it's effect to the markets, and then you can catch up:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2623

I more interested Gonu in how it effects the storm region, crude prices and that net effect on our standards of living, the Saudis are not in harms way either.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Over the next 6-12 hours the sst's will go from the 84 degrees to around 81 degrees. But as it moves into the Gulf of Omen, as its taking Aim at Iran; the sst's are around 30-32c. Which are some of the warmest on earth.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... km5000.gif

[AZRainman]

Eye is clearly visible again and it looks like another system is forming in the Bay of Bengal.

[wxmann_91]

Note that the image was from 6Z, over 2 hr before the time of this post. Seems there's something wrong with the sats. Anybody know the more current intensity estimate? (EDIT: just figured out it's down to 125 kt)

This has been much more resilient than I expected... the SSMIS data actually showed a pretty structurally sound cyclone at 2Z. Believe a new microwave pass will show something drastically different. Dry air's finally doing its thing. Convection intensity/cloud tops are decreasing. Note that the CIRAS analysis and WV imagery shows some extremely dry air continuing to assert itself in the Persian Gulf... believe some of that stuff is getting entrained into the storm.

[Windy]

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[font=Arial Black]NOBODY CARES[/font][/align]

[Chacor]

Yes, this thread is about the STORM not oil. Keep it on-topic please!

On-topic: The IMD's track is interesting... not making it affect Iran and instead recurve to near Dubai.

[Nimbus]

Gonu was too large to thrive in a dry air environment. Proximity to desert should continue limiting storm inflow. If Gonu chose a small eye during the ERC the inflow requirements would be a little less but the end result should still be the same.

Oil tankers anchor offshore near pumping facilities and wait their turn to be filled and emptied. I doubt there will be much real impact on oil delivery from Gonu.

The Hubbert peak for oil production would make an interesting thread over in "off topic".

[Zajko]

Hi Guys,

Just joined this forum after finding it during a search for info re Tropical Cyclone Gonu. Really interesting info here and my thanks to all your knowledgeable posters who've improved my understanding of this whole phenomenon. I'm living in Oman right now and I can tell you that here in Muscat, the wind is already picking up and it's strongest surf I've seen here even now. Heading down to the SE tip of the country by car this evening (to Sur / Ras al Jinz) to check it out down there...this is presuming I can get down there without getting into serious trouble.

This SE coast of Oman, let me tell you, is pretty much wild, empty desert. Masirah Island has one reasonably sized town, but between there and Ras al Jinz (the fr Eastern corner/tip of Arabia where Gonu looks to be headed right now) is just sand, no road at all. However, the town of Sur, just north of the cape, is a big place with 100,000 or so people, three or four 4* hotels - one of which I hope to be staying in tonight, plus a big new university college and a large boat-building industry. That coastline is quite exposed at the best of times - let's hope Gonu veers north/weakens before landfall as this thing could do a lot of damage down there tomorrow.

[P.K.]

Gonu has weakened a little more.

Dated: 5th June, 2007


Subject: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “GONU’ over East
Central and adjoining westcentral and north
Arabian Sea


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI



TROPICAL STORM “GONU” ADVISORY NO. TWENTYFIVE ISSUED AT 1100 UTC OF 5TH JUNE, 2007 BASED ON 0900 UTC CHARTS OF 5TH JUNE 2007. THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “GONU” OVER NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF 5TH JUNE 2007 OVER NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 21.50N AND LONG 61.00E, ABOUT 800 KMS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DWARKA (42731).


CURRENT INTENSITY IS T5.5 RPT T5.5 AND CI 6.0 RPT 6.0. SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HPA. MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 100 KTS GUSTING 110 KTS.



FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS NORTHERN PART OF SOUTHEAST COAST OF OMAN, CLOSE TO THE STATION, 41268 BY TOMORROW THE 6TH JUNE AROUND 0000UTC. 24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T5.0 RPT T5.0. SEA CONDITION WILL BE PHENOMENAL.

[mf_dolphin]

Zajko good luck and stay safe.

[Category 5]

Hi Guys,

Just joined this forum after finding it during a search for info re Tropical Cyclone Gonu. Really interesting info here and my thanks to all your knowledgeable posters who've improved my understanding of this whole phenomenon. I'm living in Oman right now and I can tell you that here in Muscat, the wind is already picking up and it's strongest surf I've seen here even now. Heading down to the SE tip of the country by car this evening (to Sur / Ras al Jinz) to check it out down there...this is presuming I can get down there without getting into serious trouble.

This SE coast of Oman, let me tell you, is pretty much wild, empty desert. Masirah Island has one reasonably sized town, but between there and Ras al Jinz (the fr Eastern corner/tip of Arabia where Gonu looks to be headed right now) is just sand, no road at all. However, the town of Sur, just north of the cape, is a big place with 100,000 or so people, three or four 4* hotels - one of which I hope to be staying in tonight, plus a big new university college and a large boat-building industry. That coastline is quite exposed at the best of times - let's hope Gonu veers north/weakens before landfall as this thing could do a lot of damage down there tomorrow.

You just awswered alot of our questions. Thanks alot. Welcome to Storm2k

And stay safe.

[Chacor]

Take care with the storm Zajko.