Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[Aric Dunn]

yes that is true.. except we had a exposed center almost all day and still do a little now.. i have been tracking it all day...

I can see that. I can also see that you know what you're talking about. I'm just enjoying the discussion. This is a lot of fun for me.

yeah sorry if i sound pushy .. and thats what its all about enjoying and learning..

[vacanechaser]

yes that is true.. except we had a exposed center almost all day and still do a little now.. i have been tracking it all day..

well well, i guess we know someone who has nothing better to do!!! lol.. whats up mr. dunn???


nice new burst near the mid-level center.. which of course if that continues can pull the low level in.. or spin up another... could we get it named tomorrow???? Hmmm?? 1996 anyone???


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Aric Dunn]

yes that is true.. except we had a exposed center almost all day and still do a little now.. i have been tracking it all day..

well well, i guess we know someone who has nothing better to do!!! lol.. whats up mr. dunn???


nice new burst near the mid-level center.. which of course if that continues can pull the low level in.. or spin up another... could we get it named tomorrow???? Hmmm?? 1996 anyone???


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

possibly .. but that is a LLC .. not much mid level ... because we are just now starting to get convection again...

anyway .. i have a feeling i will be seeing you this summer.. on the road somewhere!!! probably in florida

[vacanechaser]

yes that is true.. except we had a exposed center almost all day and still do a little now.. i have been tracking it all day..

well well, i guess we know someone who has nothing better to do!!! lol.. whats up mr. dunn???


nice new burst near the mid-level center.. which of course if that continues can pull the low level in.. or spin up another... could we get it named tomorrow???? Hmmm?? 1996 anyone???


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

possibly .. but that is a LLC .. not much mid level ... because we are just now starting to get convection again...

anyway .. i have a feeling i will be seeing you this summer.. on the road somewhere!!! probably in florida

yea, i have been thinking the same thing... this is the first time i have had to really look it over all day.... so catching up a bit.. nice spin though..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[wxman57]

your last two are progressively off from your first one that was accurate... i assure you its where the red circle was..
and those ir images are less resolution than the NOAA images.. but hey we will see soon enough

http://img247.imageshack.us/img247/3460/96lgyj1.jpg

We'll just have to disagree, Aric. I know those last 2 IR images I posted aren't the best quality. I was looking at high res visible imagery at work. But even on the loop you posted, the center is clearly visible near 10.5N earlier in the afternoon, and your circle is around 10.2N. That doesn't fit with previous positions from visible imagery.

Time to head out for a nice evening bike ride and dinner with the wife. We have a nice outdoor cafe we bike to near downtown Houston. It's about a 12-mile ride there (and 12 back) but I get to eat a cookie for dessert if I ride. Already lost 16 pounds in the past 4 months from avoiding French fries and chocolate. Down to almost what I weighed when I was 20 years old (nearing 50 now). Be back by 10pm.

[Aric Dunn]

alright im going to jump the gun .. because i feel like it.. but i see something very samll happeing on the NE side of that little burst of convection.. there is a smaller little area that looks as though it is moving up the ese to e side of the circ... probably just another pulse .. but i was saying earlier that the ITCZ should not be as much of a influence in a few hours.. as it is breaking off.. and that we should see a possible increase in convection .. because we will have a better inflow on the SW and wsw sides... but just going to watch over the next few hours.. again im just being picky right now.. because i can

[Berwick Bay]

Yes Tampa, I do appreciate your posts along with MGC, Ivanhater, and many others which I think are knowledgable and appropriate to a "talkin tropics" forum. BTW I agree with you that an upgrade to depression tomorrow is a good bet. As for track, I love to test my abilities to forecast a tropical track against the posted computer models. Right now, I would favor the "BAMS" or shallow track?? model which I've seen some post. It takes the system on a more southerly track into the Central Lesser Antilles (not Northern Antilles), taking the storm then south of Puerto Rico and then on to near the south coast of Hispaniola. I favor it because there is nothing to take the storm on a radical turn NW. All models call for a gradual turn WNW. The low lat of this storm makes me believe that the most gradual turn possible, the one favored by the BAMS is most likely.

[Aric Dunn]

your last two are progressively off from your first one that was accurate... i assure you its where the red circle was..
and those ir images are less resolution than the NOAA images.. but hey we will see soon enough

http://img247.imageshack.us/img247/3460/96lgyj1.jpg

We'll just have to disagree, Aric. I know those last 2 IR images I posted aren't the best quality. I was looking at high res visible imagery at work. But even on the loop you posted, the center is clearly visible near 10.5N earlier in the afternoon, and your circle is around 10.2N. That doesn't fit with previous positions from visible imagery.

Time to head out for a nice evening bike ride and dinner with the wife. We have a nice outdoor cafe we bike to near downtown Houston. It's about a 12-mile ride there (and 12 back) but I get to eat a cookie for dessert if I ride. Already lost 16 pounds in the past 4 months from avoiding French fries and chocolate. Down to almost what I weighed when I was 20 years old (nearing 50 now). Be back by 10pm.

thats ok thats why its a discusion .. !! i know its hard .. but i have tracked almost every few images today.. i can see it very clearly .. myself.. so its settled we disagree .. but that ok because its not that important right now anyway. (but im right on this one )

oh and have fun riding.. im taking a break .. and sitting.. been at school most of the day doing differential equations.. lol fun

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 032323
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.1 39.8 287./11.1
6 10.3 40.3 294./ 5.1
12 10.1 40.7 250./ 4.5
18 9.7 41.0 211./ 5.0
24 9.5 41.7 257./ 7.6
30 9.3 42.3 244./ 6.1
36 9.2 43.0 261./ 6.8
42 9.6 43.1 338./ 4.3
48 9.7 43.8 284./ 6.5
54 9.3 45.0 253./12.9
60 10.5 46.1 317./15.9
66 10.2 47.9 261./17.6

STORM DISSIPATED AT 66 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.



This is the 18z GFDL run for 96L.This model in it's first run at 18:00z,dissipated it at 60 hours.Now at this 18:00z run it extends it's life six more hours.

[Toadstool]

Palm Beach post on 96L...
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/palmbeach/stormblog/entries/2007/07/03/bumpy_weather_ahead.html

[Cyclone1]

Does it say "TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96?" What does that mean?

[cycloneye]

Does it say "TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96?" What does that mean?

Always when there are invests,they have that header,but it does not mean it's a depression.

[wxman57]

thats ok thats why its a discussion .. !! i know its hard .. but i have tracked almost every few images today.. i can see it very clearly .. myself.. so its settled we disagree .. but that ok because its not that important right now anyway. (but im right on this one )

By the way, that's my job, Aric. As lead hurricane forecaster I'm tracking it all day long, every image. But I see it farther north away from the convection. Generally I use McIDAS full resolution imagery but I'm limited to what I can get to on the web from home. Maybe what we're seeing is the opinion of two people - one who wants it to just die and not make him work all day tomorrow (now who would that be?) and another who's like some action out there. See ya later!

Oh, and Aric, I enjoy reading your posts but I don't know anything of your background. No info on your profile. Can you fill me in?

[Cyclone1]

Does it say "TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96?" What does that mean?

Always when there are invests,they have that header,but it does not mean it's a depression.

Oh, ok. Thanks.

[Aric Dunn]

thats ok thats why its a discussion .. !! i know its hard .. but i have tracked almost every few images today.. i can see it very clearly .. myself.. so its settled we disagree .. but that ok because its not that important right now anyway. (but im right on this one )

By the way, that's my job, Aric. As lead hurricane forecaster I'm tracking it all day long, every image. But I see it farther north away from the convection. Generally I use McIDAS full resolution imagery but I'm limited to what I can get to on the web from home. Maybe what we're seeing is the opinion of two people - one who wants it to just die and not make him work all day tomorrow (now who would that be?) and another who's like some action out there. See ya later!

Oh, and Aric, I enjoy reading your posts but I don't know anything of your background. No info on your profile. Can you fill me in?

possibly so we both have a bias view.. lol its ok really .. have fun .. time will tell .. yeah i will PM you when you get back ok ?

maybe i will make a nice slide show for you

[Aric Dunn]

well this will help in the location.... it was when that burst just started.... you can cleatly see the curved bands right around the center .. at 10.2 to 10.3 north..

10.5 would be too far north . but is still close enough.. since we are talking about a for the most part meager distance..

[Ivanhater]

96l is holding strong...wont have much time to track it tomorrow with work and fireworks downtown, but ill check in ...interesting little system

[windstorm99]

Iam thinking if convection persists through tommorow we may have a TD on the 1130am outlook tommorow.

The islands need to keep tabs on the situation but nothing to panic over at the present time.

[Aric Dunn]

this is a little more discernible for those that are having trouble with other one

yeah so i changed the image.. i drew where the bands are and the center.. copmare that with the image above and the real image of this one here

[jrod]

Aric, where do you find all those satellite links?