2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SconnieCane]

00z Gfs has a Cat 4 landfall into South Florida on 10/11 identical to Wilma’s path without the Yucatán interaction then second landfall in NC on 10/13; this is the wave that follows the first wave which gets buried in the BOC

Fantasyland at this time of course

The landfall is in fantasy range, but the development really isn't at this point.

[Spacecoast]

Genesis Probabilities 0-168 hours
1st system: GFS(6z),UKMET(00z), NAVGEM(00z),and CMC(00z) no longer have the 1st system becoming TC as of now.

2nd system: GFS(6z),UKMET(00z), NAVGEM(00z),no longer have the 2nd system becoming TC next 168 hours. CMC(00z) has 27% probability

[chaser1]

Who's excited for freak Hurricane Aleph in the central Atlantic a la Zeta on December 29? obviously not serious and the chances of this are essentially zero.

If all the fantasy land runs from mid-September verified and the current ones for October verify, it wouldn't surprise me that the Greek Alphabet would be all used up (13 storms in October, 6 in November and 4 in December would do the trick). Obviously, again, near impossible.

Fun fact is that the word "alphabet" contains letters from the Greek and Hebrew alphabet, alpha and bet (the first letter of the Greek and second letter of the Hebrew alphabet). Funny enough, if we somehow were to use up all the Greek letters in the distant distant future and decide to use the first letter of the Hebrew alphabet, we would use Aleph which is actually a silent letter so really we should be reading the storm as "Tropical Storm _____" and not pronounce Aleph.

Think about how zero prep and heeded warnings would play out with that one LOL

[Spacecoast]

I really hate to criticize any model's performance, as I think every one of them are excellent tools, and the alternative is pencil and paper calculations.
Completely over my head

but,...

Is it crazy to start thinking about how many Carib modelstorms the ECMWF has correctly predicted would not occur
vs.
how many GFS-Para Carib modelstorms seem to 'vanish' from subsequent runs, and have failed to develop at all in real life?

Last night's apocalyptic GFS runs compared to today's relatively tame runs illustrate what some refer to as 'wild fluxuations' after 240 hours.
It seems more like an ever-changing 'wild imagination' after 6-7 days.
Not sure when fantasyland starts anymore. I think 120hours must be the border between plausable-land and fantasy-land for the GFS.

Although too boring to post, the ECWMF appears to be more accurate in the 120-240 range, and certainly has less of a hair trigger by refusing genesis as 'easily' as other models. It may miss genesis of Carib storms like it missed genesis of many CV storms,but so far, (after dozens of pages of discussion) there hasn't been any development, or genesis in the Caribbean.

Do NOT get me wrong, I absolutely believe there will be development of at least 1 (possibly major) actual Caribbean cyclone(s) sometime before the end of the season, perhaps in the next 10 days. I feel 70% confident this will happen, anyway.

The ECMWF may correctly predict it. I absolutely feel 50% confident it will.

Just sayin',..it's only my personal observation as a novice, of course. I do not wish to re-ignite any model war.

[chaser1]

I'll refrain from any bombastic reference to any one model other than to say that one or more models is on the verge of one big flop. Per 18Z data, the GFS Para and the NAM are suggesting a closed 1005 mb low just north of Honduras in 30 hr's & 39 hr's respectively. GFS has trended further east each of the last 3 model runs. Present depiction of the sharp trough suggests it remaining slightly positively tilted out to 84 hr's. By the way.... 84 hr NAM (6Z Sunday) has it's deepest depiction of this system by showing a 993 mb low east of Cozumel.

The point here is that varying models are showing genesis between 24-36 hr.s. Meanwhile, the EURO and UK have nada. Either camp could be right but that simply means that some of these model have degraded to such a point that they are either inaccurately predicting genesis within a 48 hr. window OR that they lack the sophistication to anticipate development within a 48 hr period of time. The only way I see any type of compromise is if the EURO finally gets more onboard on it's 0Z run late tonight and possibly depicting genesis around the 72-84 hr time frame AND an outcome where all other models were simply predicting genesis 36-48 hr's to fast.

If the train simply left the station without the EURO on board, then present trending may suggest that a quicker (and deeper) development suggest an increase threat to Florida. On the other hand if the EURO crawls out of the train's caboose with a delayed development and a stall over Yucatan or the BOC, then someone's gonna have to cut out sugar from the other more aggressive models diets LOL.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: still another run without Caribbean TC genesis through 144. Could it be onto something, i.e. nondevelopment for the first wave?

[otowntiger]

0Z UKMET: still another run without Caribbean TC genesis through 144. Could it be onto something, i.e. nondevelopment for the first wave?

And that’d be alright! Will other models start to follow suit?

[SFLcane]

0Z UKMET: still another run without Caribbean TC genesis through 144. Could it be onto something, i.e. nondevelopment for the first wave?

And that’d be alright! Will other models start to follow suit?

Gfs not enthusiastic about either wave so may nothing develops.

[toad strangler]

0Z UKMET: still another run without Caribbean TC genesis through 144. Could it be onto something, i.e. nondevelopment for the first wave?

And that’d be alright! Will other models start to follow suit?

Gfs not enthusiastic about either wave so may nothing develops.

Watch Nov get us after we all let our guard down.

[SFLcane]

And that’d be alright! Will other models start to follow suit?

Gfs not enthusiastic about either wave so may nothing develops.

Watch Nov get us after we all let our guard down.

Na...

[SFLcane]

The Caribbean thankfully has not been able to really produce a prolific major in some time.

[Ryxn]

Gfs not enthusiastic about either wave so may nothing develops.

Watch Nov get us after we all let our guard down.

Na...

November 2016, 2008, 2005, 2001, 1999, 1994, and 1985 would like to say hello

Well in terms of "getting us" as in having November USA impacts, only 1985 (Kate, C2 at landfall) and to some extent 1994 (Gordon, TS at landfall) say hello but as for having notable Novembers, all of the years take the cake. 1999, 2001, 2008, and 2016 had strong late-season major hurricanes affecting Central America and the Caribbean. They were wrong-way Lenny (near-Cat 5), Michelle (Cat 4), Paloma (Cat 4), and Otto (record late Cat 3 major). 2001 in addiction had 2 other hurricanes so a record 3 hurricanes in November.

1994 (again) had 2 long-lasting hurricanes and 2005 had a record 3 tropical storms (one of them being the freak Hurricane Epsilon). 1994 didn't even have ANY storms form in October preceding its November activity. Also in 1932, there was a Category 5 in the Western Caribbean in November (and a Cat 2 in the Atlantic). And Mitch of 1998 (which also had a hurricane at the end of November) and Hattie of 1961 were both Category 5 Hurricanes at the end of October very close to November.....so November does have the ability to surprise.

Honorable mentions include November 2009 which had Cat 2 Ida racing north toward the US but thankfully only making landfall as a Tropical Storm. Also 1996 had Marco which was a VERY IRRADIC Category 1 Hurricane in the Caribbean. It managed to traverse all of the Western Caribbean without making landfall. If conditions were a little better and stearing was different, it could have been a strong and damaging hurricane.

However I would not go as far as to say it is likely judging by November 2010, 2011, and 2017 which were all La Niña Novembers that either had no storms or had a minimal tropical storm forming. But still, it's possible. Stay tuned!

[SFLcane]

Would be very surprised to see anything more than a TS from either system at this point.

[Nuno]

Would be very surprised to see anything more than a TS from either system at this point.

I wouldn't base such predictions based on the temperamental models that keep flip flopping. Way too soon to be this confident in anything

[SFLcane]

Would be very surprised to see anything more than a TS from either system at this point.

I wouldn't base such predictions based on the temperamental models that keep flip flopping. Way too soon to be this confident in anything

Hard to go against the Ukmet and Euro showing nothing. We shall see

[SconnieCane]

Would be very surprised to see anything more than a TS from either system at this point.

Watching these models not produce anything over these 30-31°C waters is like being a land-based storm chaser looking at a loaded gun forecast sounding with a perfect hodograph...but it's nuclear capped.

[Ubuntwo]

Would be very surprised to see anything more than a TS from either system at this point.

I wouldn't base such predictions based on the temperamental models that keep flip flopping. Way too soon to be this confident in anything

At this point it's well within 5 days, so worth putting some weight on.

[TheStormExpert]

Would be very surprised to see anything more than a TS from either system at this point.

I wouldn't base such predictions based on the temperamental models that keep flip flopping. Way too soon to be this confident in anything

The models might be garbage but all indications are nothing significant comes from either area of interest.

It amazes me out of 23 storms that we’ve only seen 2 major hurricanes.

[otowntiger]

Would be very surprised to see anything more than a TS from either system at this point.

I wouldn't base such predictions based on the temperamental models that keep flip flopping. Way too soon to be this confident in anything

The models might be garbage but all indications are nothing significant comes from either area of interest.

It amazes me out of 23 storms that we’ve only seen 2 major hurricanes.

yes, that is remarkable, but very fortunate! So far one good thing about this season. However even with only 2 majors the folks in SW Louisiana only needed one to make this an extremely destructive season and to a lesser extent the folks in S. Al and extreme western FL panhandle.

[TheStormExpert]

I wouldn't base such predictions based on the temperamental models that keep flip flopping. Way too soon to be this confident in anything

The models might be garbage but all indications are nothing significant comes from either area of interest.

It amazes me out of 23 storms that we’ve only seen 2 major hurricanes.

yes, that is remarkable, but very fortunate! So far one good thing about this season. However even with only 2 majors the folks in SW Louisiana only needed one to make this an extremely destructive season and to a lesser extent the folks in S. Al and extreme western FL panhandle.

Definitely, all it takes is one. Fortunately Florida was able to get untouched with all the coastline we have.

For awhile I’ve been feeling like this is a repeat of 2012 in a sense on steroids. A lot of quantity with some quality mixed in.