2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[skyline385]

Papin joining enhanced the wave-breaking theory for this season

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1561566433791787008?s=20&t=mgxjVDk3q1C7-QBsiMdIvg

The original tweet also mentions reduced shear forecast by models, which may suggest wavebreaking being less of a concern by end August.

Yea I don't really trust Bulk shear forecasts for ensemble mean into the future. They always converge towards less shear at any point in the year as the ensemble members start cancelling each other out. Here's an example of current forecasted shear compared to one predicted a few days ago.

[NotSparta]

Papin joining enhanced the wave-breaking theory for this season

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1561566433791787008?s=20&t=mgxjVDk3q1C7-QBsiMdIvg

The original tweet also mentions reduced shear forecast by models, which may suggest wavebreaking being less of a concern by end August.

Yea I don't really trust Bulk shear forecasts for ensemble mean into the future. They always converge towards less shear at any point in the year as the ensemble members start cancelling each other out. Here's an example of current forecasted shear compared to one predicted a few days ago.

https://i.imgur.com/DfqMwmS.jpg

Looks pretty consistent to me

[AtlanticWind]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status ... F5i4Q&s=09

[AtlanticWind]

2022 Hurricane Season


Loading.... Loading.... Loading.... Loading.....

Sorry 2022 Hurricane Season not available.

Please try again later.

[Category5Kaiju]

2022 Hurricane Season


Loading.... Loading.... Loading.... Loading.....

Sorry 2022 Hurricane Season not available.

Please try again later.

More like:

2022 Northern Hemisphere cyclone season (WPAC, Atlantic, and EPAC)

Loading….Loading….Loading.

Sorry, an unknown error has occurred. Please try again later.

[tolakram]

I still say wave breaking is one of those lazy terms for something not clearly understood. You can google atmospheric wave breaking and read some papers both old and new and make up your own mind. Maybe this is the tip of the iceberg to helping us better understand what makes for ideal tropical storm conditions, or maybe not.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1561699581557198848

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1561695934542761984

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1561440804576583680

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1561704650193215490

[Patrick99]

I've been noticing something on the SAL loops for most of this season - it looks like the dry air has been oriented NE to SW most of the time, really drilling down into the ITCZ, killing waves and squashing their moisture feed into a thin line. In other seasons I seem to recall the dry air being oriented more E-W, just coming off the coast and floating above the tropical waves.

On the latest loop, it looks like that is starting to happen more.....dry air still there of course but starting to just slide off Africa east to west without as much of that north/south component. Maybe this will give the waves more of a chance.

[kevin]

Has there been any research towards the impact of the Hunga Tonga eruption earlier this year on TC formation globally? I know major eruptions such as Mount Pinatubo, Krakatoa, and Tambora cooled down temperatures globally by (fractions of) degrees. Their ash clouds also slowly dispersed through the atmosphere and all of this lead to volcanic winters such as 1816 'the year without a summer'. I wasn't able to find anything regarding its potential relationship with TC formation. Considering the Hunga Tonga eruption is, according to Wikipedia: "The eruption was the largest explosion recorded in the atmosphere by modern instrumentation, far larger than any 20th century volcanic event or nuclear bomb test. It is thought that in recent centuries, only the Krakatoa eruption of 1883 rivalled the atmospheric disturbance produced" I wondered whether it might have something to do with the inactivity in the Atlantic as well as slow activity in f.e. the WPAC.

[JuracánBori]

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1561704650193215490

I would find 1988 hurricane season difficult of an analog for this year. That year had a relatively active August with 4 NS. We should see.

[tolakram]

Has there been any research towards the impact of the Hunga Tonga eruption earlier this year on TC formation globally? I know major eruptions such as Mount Pinatubo, Krakatoa, and Tambora cooled down temperatures globally by (fractions of) degrees. Their ash clouds also slowly dispersed through the atmosphere and all of this lead to volcanic winters such as 1816 'the year without a summer'. I wasn't able to find anything regarding its potential relationship with TC formation. Considering the Hunga Tonga eruption is, according to Wikipedia: "The eruption was the largest explosion recorded in the atmosphere by modern instrumentation, far larger than any 20th century volcanic event or nuclear bomb test. It is thought that in recent centuries, only the Krakatoa eruption of 1883 rivalled the atmospheric disturbance produced" I wondered whether it might have something to do with the inactivity in the Atlantic as well as slow activity in f.e. the WPAC.

Just discussed a page back or so. HT put up a ton of moisture in the air, not so much ash or sulphur. Not sure how it effects things.

[Category5Kaiju]

Something I have to wonder is now that the WPAC seems to be waking up, I wonder if whatever factors were greatly suppressing that basin for the past weeks or so may be starting to let up a bit, and assuming such factors have any relation with what is happening in the Atlantic, if that means the Atlantic should experience a wake up soon as well.

At least this assumption rests on that very intriguing idea tolakram raised several posts back about whether it's actually a thing where the Atlantic may actually need the WPAC to be active to some extent in order to be active as well.

[SteveM]

At least this assumption rests on that very intriguing idea tolakram raised several posts back about whether it's actually a thing where the Atlantic may actually need the WPAC to be active to some extent in order to be active as well.

You just need to look back at the WPAC during the most busy ATL seasons to know that isn't the case.

[skyline385]

Something I have to wonder is now that the WPAC seems to be waking up, I wonder if whatever factors were greatly suppressing that basin for the past weeks or so may be starting to let up a bit, and assuming such factors have any relation with what is happening in the Atlantic, if that means the Atlantic should experience a wake up soon as well.

At least this assumption rests on that very intriguing idea tolakram raised several posts back about whether it's actually a thing where the Atlantic may actually need the WPAC to be active to some extent in order to be active as well.

Said the same thing in the models thread earlier, I too think that the WPAC waking up might mean that activity resumes on the NATL too

Kinda interesting how we have two systems in the WPAC now as well after weeks of inactive, maybe the switch will flip this time.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[KWT]

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1561704650193215490

I would find 1988 hurricane season difficult of an analog for this year. That year had a relatively active August with 4 NS. We should see.

The ACE for this time in 1988 was even lower than 2022. Most of those storms were very brief spin ups and it took until the very end of August to get a stronger system (and even then it did nearly of its main strengthening in September.

88 makes alot of sense at the moment. Above average bit not the hyperactive season that was previously forecasted.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1561704650193215490

I would find 1988 hurricane season difficult of an analog for this year. That year had a relatively active August with 4 NS. We should see.

The ACE for this time in 1988 was even lower than 2022. Most of those storms were very brief spin ups and it took until the very end of August to get a stronger system (and even then it did nearly of its main strengthening in September.

88 makes alot of sense at the moment. Above average bit not the hyperactive season that was previously forecasted.

While it wasn't a hyperactive season, I am on the firm belief that 1988 could have easily been much more active and intense had it occurred during a warm AMO phase. Just by looking at the progression of the season (and especially considering how it was able to produce menances like Gilbert and Joan without difficulty), one would have to wonder if it could have snuck in like 2 or so more majors if it were to occur like in the present day. Much like years like 2008 or 2021, I view 1988 as a good example of a season that, had it have had a slightly different setup, would have easily attained hyperactive status.

[Steve]

Also remember that it doesn’t have to be named storms that do the proverbial dirty work. We are in a MJO Phase 1/2 August pattern at the moment without any systems involved. 99l joined the frontal boundary and the SE US is in a +precip, -temperature pattern. Storms will surely come, but like I said, you don’t always need them to be the catalysts.