2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

12z GEFS: area most at risk from TS+ from SE LA to Sarasota with 6 hits in there 10/8-12 from whatever systems.

[aspen]

12z GFS-Parallel...lol

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS-Parallel...lol
https://i.imgur.com/Uk5WALQ.png

Yeah that’s not happening!

[FireRat]

12z GFS-Parallel...lol
https://i.imgur.com/Uk5WALQ.png

Yeah that’s not happening!

yeah that's insane, whats that a double fujiwara or even a quad!
Its birdshot, no way indeed lol

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS-Parallel...lol
https://i.imgur.com/Uk5WALQ.png

Yeah that’s not happening!

yeah that's insane, whats that a double fujiwara or even a quad!
Its birdshot, no way indeed lol

Well obviously if there’s two systems in the East Pacific close to Mexico then there will be shear in the Gulf and Caribbean.

[SconnieCane]

Yeah that’s not happening!

yeah that's insane, whats that a double fujiwara or even a quad!
Its birdshot, no way indeed lol

Well obviously if there’s two systems in the East Pacific close to Mexico then there will be shear in the Gulf and Caribbean.

Why would Gulf/Caribbean systems not shear the EPAC systems? Why does it always have to be the other way around?

[TheStormExpert]

yeah that's insane, whats that a double fujiwara or even a quad!
Its birdshot, no way indeed lol

Well obviously if there’s two systems in the East Pacific close to Mexico then there will be shear in the Gulf and Caribbean.

Why would Gulf/Caribbean systems not shear the EPAC systems? Why does it always have to be the other way around?

Good question. But I believe it has to do with the outflow from the north creating westerly shear. Not sure if a Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean system can cause easterly shear in the East Pacific?

[FireRat]

I was thinking the same thing. Perhaps the northern outflow gives a westerly shear more than the other way around because of how the world rotates.

[Loveweather12]

I hear more waves may form after these two storms? Is this true? I saw someone posted the GEFS model. I wonder how long the Caribbean will stay favorable

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems to be hinting at another CAG starting around the 18th, wouldn’t be surprised as around that time the CFS has had something around that time for a few months

[SFLcane]

The GFS seems to be hinting at another CAG starting around the 18th, wouldn’t be surprised as around that time the CFS has had something around that time for a few months

If the ensembles show it that might be interesting.

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is what the GFS shows in 15-16 days. Very far out I know but like you I am totally stunned that outside of the wester portions of the Panhandle, almost the entire peninsula is untouched in this record settinf year. Something like Michelle 2001 or Mitch 1998 is possible perhaps. I find it hard to believe that having the Pacific waters in La Nina territory that there wont be at least 1 Caribbean major hurricane




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[SFLcane]

Here is what the GFS shows in 15-16 days. Very far out I know but like you I am totally stunned that outside of the wester portions of the Panhandle, almost the entire peninsula is untouched in this record settinf year. Something like Michelle 2001 or Mitch 1998 is possible perhaps. I find it hard to believe that having the Pacific waters in La Nina territory that there wont be at least 1 Caribbean major hurricane

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201005/2ada590735b5ad5f0b51d59b02f74d9b.jpg


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Ensembles did well predicting the current activity in the Caribbean. Its still only early October.

[SFLcane]

GEPS ensembles long range getting active.

[869MB]

GEPS ensembles long range getting active.

https://i.imgur.com/Y95zOyz.gif

SFLane very interesting long range ensembles run. I think it’s kind of ironic while reading through the Hurricane Delta discussion thread I couldn’t help but notice the high OHC waters off of South Florida and Bahamas. Stay tuned...the 2020 hurricane season continues.

[AutoPenalti]

GEPS ensembles long range getting active.

https://i.imgur.com/Y95zOyz.gif

Not sure how much I buy that, what would be the catalyst?

[SFLcane]

More to come folks!

GEFS has done very well with long term genesis.

[toad strangler]

From the East? Man, I don't know ...

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, we can not get complacent in Florida. We have been extremely lucky in 2020 with tropical activity missing most of the peninsula, except the extreme western panhandle.

But, there is a hint of a CAG to form across the Western Caribbean during the next 10 days and that could be genesis of another tropical cyclone later this month. The later we get into October, the more climatology will settle in and the chances of seeng these cyclones getting.picked up by mid-latitude troughs and affecting Florida increase significantly.

STAY TUNED!!!!!°

[GeneratorPower]

From the East? Man, I don't know ...

Why not? It seems unclimatological but not impossible.