ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

It looks like No El Nino during the last months of 2013 going thru the first months of 2014 according to the updated forecast from the ENSO Models.



http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/s ... 2&userID=2

[hurricanetrack]

Not sure what looks like El Nino - none of the averages were above .5C. That being said, I think a weak El Nino might do some good by putting some moisture back in the atmosphere so bring it on. Can't hurt any worse than this season, right?

[cycloneye]

Not sure what looks like El Nino - none of the averages were above .5C. That being said, I think a weak El Nino might do some good by putting some moisture back in the atmosphere so bring it on. Can't hurt any worse than this season, right?

I agree. At least a weak El Nino or a Modoki one for 2014.

[chaser1]

It looks like No El Nino during the last months of 2013 going thru the first months of 2014 according to the updated forecast from the ENSO Models.

http://oi42.tinypic.com/2r3dz4p.jpg

http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/s ... 2&userID=2

I don't think that looks anymore like an El Nino than our present pattern being considered a La Nina. Don't get me wrong, at this point I'd almost welcome a full force onslaught El Nino; Anything for some degree of variation.

[Cyclenall]

Not sure what looks like El Nino - none of the averages were above .5C. That being said, I think a weak El Nino might do some good by putting some moisture back in the atmosphere so bring it on. Can't hurt any worse than this season, right?

What we have all witnessed this season was the worst possible outcome a season can have, a strong El Nino would have been better in the Atlantic than this. Hands down, 1997 was more interesting believe it or not. I bet every aspect of that season beats this one (ACE, major hurricanes, Pacific activity). The myth of an El Nino year for the Atlantic meaning nothing for us will be blown to shreds when the next real one starts, it will have more death and destruction than 2013, just watch.

[WeatherWiseGuy]

"The myth of an El Nino year for the Atlantic meaning nothing for us will be blown to shreds when the next real one starts, it will have more death and destruction than 2013, just watch."

Confused by your last sentence. Could you please clarify?

[Cyclenall]

"The myth of an El Nino year for the Atlantic meaning nothing for us will be blown to shreds when the next real one starts, it will have more death and destruction than 2013, just watch."

Confused by your last sentence. Could you please clarify?

When the next El Nino that is real (meets the official definition of one, not a 2012 cop out) occurs, the Atlantic will likely have more activity than this season. That means an El Nino year may not mean so much as we all thought for Atlantic activity despite previous history. Please don't confuse this with the cliche "It only takes one" in which I'm starting to really grow weary of.

[WeatherWiseGuy]

"The myth of an El Nino year for the Atlantic meaning nothing for us will be blown to shreds when the next real one starts, it will have more death and destruction than 2013, just watch."

Confused by your last sentence. Could you please clarify?

When the next El Nino that is real (meets the official definition of one, not a 2012 cop out) occurs, the Atlantic will likely have more activity than this season. That means an El Nino year may not mean so much as we all thought for Atlantic activity despite previous history. Please don't confuse this with the cliche "It only takes one" in which I'm starting to really grow weary of.

Got it. Thanks, and I think I may agree with you.

[cycloneye]

The ESPI is creeping up (-77) after being around -180 as lowest. Maybe is the first sign of a warming trend that may spark El Nino later on.

ESPI Data

[cycloneye]

The 9/23/13 CPC update has Nino 3.4 down to -0.1C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[hurricanes1234]

Will there be an El Niño in 2014? If not, when will be our next one?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I doubt it.

And I'll let you know when it happens.

[cycloneye]

Will there be an El Niño in 2014? If not, when will be our next one?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I merged your post to this ENSO thread to not have different threads for the same topic.

To answer your question,I say it will be Neutral at least thru Winter and early Spring but after that period things may change to warm but is no guarantee. The recent update from the ENSO models thru the next 6 months don't show a definite trend towards El Nino for now.

[hurricanes1234]

Will there be an El Niño in 2014? If not, when will be our next one?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I merged your post to this ENSO thread to not have different threads for the same topic.

To answer your question,I say it will be Neutral at least thru Winter and early Spring but after that period things may change to warm but is no guarantee. The recent update from the ENSO models thru the next 6 months don't show a definite trend towards El Nino for now.

Do you mean warm neutral? What is the difference between warm and cool neutral?

[ninel conde]

SOI+ 1927.7 today!!!


Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 26 Sep 2013 Average for last 30 days 69.4
Average for last 90 days 25.6
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 1927.7

[Kalrany]

Would someone please be so kind as to put this into context for someone who has no idea what you are talking about? What is the SOI? What does the number mean? I have seen comments about positive and negative SOI -- what does that mean?
Thank you!!!

[Ntxw]

SOI+ 1927.7 today!!!


Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 26 Sep 2013 Average for last 30 days 69.4
Average for last 90 days 25.6
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 1927.7

It is an error. Daily SOI should be negative as it's been crashing past several days, they will adjust it.

Would someone please be so kind as to put this into context for someone who has no idea what you are talking about? What is the SOI? What does the number mean? I have seen comments about positive and negative SOI -- what does that mean?
Thank you!!!

SOI or southern oscillation index, is the pressure readings differences between Darwin, Australia and Tahiti. When Darwin is higher than Tahiti (relative to the their own averages) you get - readings which signals stormy equatorial Pacific reminiscent of El Nino conditions. Opposite is true for La Nina when values are high enough.

[cycloneye]

CPC 9/30/13 update has Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

CPC 10/7/13 update has Nino 3.4 down to -0.3C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center October update

They forecast Neutral ENSO to prevail thru the 2014 Spring.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html