ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[hurricanes1234]

Climate Prediction Center October update

They forecast Neutral ENSO to prevail thru the 2014 Spring.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

Everytime it is always neutral?

[cycloneye]

No change in this weeks update from the -0.3C at Nino 3.4 that was last week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

The Mid October update of the ENSO models show Neutral conditions prevailing thru the Winter and Spring.





http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... uick-look/

[CrazyC83]

Trending towards El Nino? Interesting.

In an El Nino year, what part of the Southern Hemisphere normally sees the most tropical activity?

[cycloneye]

I found a very interesting articule about how Global Warming may contribute to stronger El Nino's in the future and how that may affect the weather around the world. Read it at hyperlink below.

In this new paper, published in the journal Nature, researchers give their most "robust" projections yet.
Using the latest generation of climate models, they found a consistent projection for the future of ENSO.
According to the lead author, Dr Scott Power from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, global warming interferes with the way El Nino temperature patterns affect rainfall.
"This interference causes an intensification of El Nino-driven drying in the western Pacific and rainfall increases in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific," he said.

Global Warming will increase the intensity of El Nino

[Ntxw]

I found a very interesting articule about how Global Warming may contribute to stronger El Nino's in the future and how that may affect the weather around the world. Read it at hyperlink below.

It's a good read. I've had this discussion in the Texas threads before. I think folks who pin El Nino's and global warming are not looking at the PDO close enough and it's power. Before the latest -PDO period I've heard countless times that more El Nino's and stronger ones are supposed to happen. Texas is effected in a big way by ENSO due to it's proximity and Nino's brings more rain as mentioned in the article about the central and east Pacific. Since 2007 this just has not happened. -PDO has dominated the Pacific and El Nino has become an endangered species with prolific drought in Texas. While I don't question the science behind the theory, I have seen first hand of overestimation and not taking natural variables into account that can overpower. So unless there is a halt in global warming the past 5-6 years, the data just doesn't back it up in real time of late.

[cycloneye]

This week's update by Climate Prediction Center has Nino 3.4 at -0.4C and the long range forecast continues for Neutral conditions lasting at least thru the Northern Hemisphere Spring.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[euro6208]

SOI at -27 and 30/60 day average is 0.90 2.34.

Precursor to an el nino next year?

[dexterlabio]

^It's been roughly 4 years without a true El Nino. I wouldn't call 2012 an EN year because Nino 3.4 rapidly went cooler by December after a short period within EN level. This year is clearly cool neutral. I think the chance of El Nino increases as we've had more years coming without a true El Nino.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^It's been roughly 4 years without a true El Nino. I wouldn't call 2012 an EN year because Nino 3.4 rapidly went cooler by December after a short period within EN level. This year is clearly cool neutral. I think the chance of El Nino increases as we've had more years coming without a true El Nino.

Last 2009, activity in the WPAC was not very high for an ACTUAL EL NIÑO, with 22 tropical storms which 11 became typhoons.

Last year [2012], was more active, with 25 tropical storms which 14 became typhoons.

I can't even believe that it was El Nino last 2009. EPAC only had 8 canes. WPAC ACE was only 266 compared to 2012's ACE - 300.


Was last year warm neutral?

[dexterlabio]

^The 2009 event was the strongest El Nino since 1997. SOI crashed to very negative values, and suppressed the Atlantic hurricane season which is expected in an El Nino year. 2012 was warm neutral.

I also wonder why WPAC season had underperformed in 2009 (but left unforgettable devastation in Asia). There are other factors that affect tropical cyclone activity worldwide aside from ENSO, some of which might still be unknown to scientists. Like this year, there's no El Nino to suppress the ATL hurricane season but look how it turned out.

[Ntxw]

^The 2009 event was the strongest El Nino since 1997. SOI crashed to very negative values, and suppressed the Atlantic hurricane season which is expected in an El Nino year. 2012 was warm neutral.

I also wonder why WPAC season had underperformed in 2009 (but left unforgettable devastation in Asia). There are other factors that affect tropical cyclone activity worldwide aside from ENSO, some of which might still be unknown to scientists. Like this year, there's no El Nino to suppress the ATL hurricane season but look how it turned out.

I don't have wpac data to back it up (very difficult to find) but I think the PDO has something to do with it. 2009's nino was strong but the cold PDO period only allowed minute +PDO readings during that El Nino. During 97 and the 80s Ninos you had very +PDO values. Remember the PDO is the difference in water set between the eastern Pacific and western Pacific. During +PDO very warm waters lies off the NA and SA coasts and cooler waters off Japan and the Maritimes. -PDO is the polar opposite.

[euro6208]

^It's been roughly 4 years without a true El Nino. I wouldn't call 2012 an EN year because Nino 3.4 rapidly went cooler by December after a short period within EN level. This year is clearly cool neutral. I think the chance of El Nino increases as we've had more years coming without a true El Nino.

Last 2009, activity in the WPAC was not very high for an ACTUAL EL NIÑO, with 22 tropical storms which 11 became typhoons.

Last year [2012], was more active, with 25 tropical storms which 14 became typhoons.

I can't even believe that it was El Nino last 2009. EPAC only had 8 canes. WPAC ACE was only 266 compared to 2012's ACE - 300.


Was last year warm neutral?

Those are 10 min average totals...

here are the storms totals for both years (1 min)

2009- 23 Tropical Storms 15 Typhoons 7 Major Typhoons- 266

2012- 25 Tropical Storms 16 Typhoons 10 Major Typhoons- 300

The el nino in 2009 was more of an modoki type so maybe that explains the slow activity in the EPAC.

[hurricanes1234]

So possible El Niño next year?

[cycloneye]

So possible El Niño next year?

Climate Prediction Center 10/28/13 update=Neutral thru the 2014 spring,Nino 3.4 at -0.4C

[Ntxw]

Some interesting warmth moving into the ENSO regions below the surface and above as well the past several days. This week's update doesn't show it but actually 0.5C and even 1C+ is creeping on the north side of the equator. Probably relating to the -SOI daily's. If the pace continues next week could see a substantial increase/change.

[Ptarmigan]

^The 2009 event was the strongest El Nino since 1997. SOI crashed to very negative values, and suppressed the Atlantic hurricane season which is expected in an El Nino year. 2012 was warm neutral.

I also wonder why WPAC season had underperformed in 2009 (but left unforgettable devastation in Asia). There are other factors that affect tropical cyclone activity worldwide aside from ENSO, some of which might still be unknown to scientists. Like this year, there's no El Nino to suppress the ATL hurricane season but look how it turned out.

2009-2010 is one of the strongest Modoki El Nino besides 1991-1992. I notice the ACE was very high in the early 1990s, which correspond with warm PDO and El Nino.

Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update
http://policlimate.com/tropical/





Interesting to see ACE and total storm and hurricane numbers dips around 1991-1992, which correspond with Modoki El Nino. I notice around 1975, ACE drops, but number of tropical storms and hurricanes goes up. This occurs during a cool PDO and La Nina from 1973 to 1976. 1997 peaks as it corresponds with the strong El Nino of 1997-1998. Than again, there is less ACE and number of storms and hurricanes in 1982-1983, despite strong El Nino and warm PDO.

[Ntxw]

Enso 3.4 managed a little warming, 4 saw the biggest change.

If the stats weren't showing it, one would think some kind of Nino atmospherically was going on looking how vastly different the Atlantic and Wpac has performed.

[Kingarabian]

What if an El-Nino was indeed happening, but someone was manipulating all those buoys to show different temperatures across the ocean waters.

[cycloneye]

Cimate Prediction Center November update at 11/7/13

Neutral conditions are expected to continue but for the first time,they say warm conditions may come by late Spring and Summer.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
7 November 2013

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014.

During October, ENSO-neutral persisted, as reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). During the month, slightly below-average SSTs were evident in most of the Niño regions, except for Niño-4, which remained near zero (Fig. 2). However, the oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) rose from near average to slightly above average (Fig. 3), due to the eastward shift of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which was reflected in the above-average subsurface temperatures across the western half of the Pacific (Fig. 4). The atmospheric circulation remained largely near average during the month, with generally small departures in equatorial convection (Fig. 5) and upper and lower-level winds. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral.

The majority of model forecasts indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014 (Fig. 6). Though confidence is highest for ENSO-neutral, there are also growing probabilities for warm conditions (relative to cool conditions) toward the spring/summer 2014. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html