Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 91L)

[Ed Mahmoud]

NAM isn't known for its prowess in the tropics, but does show what is probably a tropical storm landfalling vicinity Port O'Connor...



So the signal from the models is very mixed. I still think the GFS almost but no cigar, or the Euro, are a good compromise, and show some rain for SE Texas on Tuesday. We need it.

Gulf satellite loop. A few storms. Nothing to write home about, but even the models that do predict development don't show life becoming interesting until tonight.

[Ed Mahmoud]

4 am, trouble sleeping, and this thread is my own personal playground!

Anyhoo, NWS CRP AFD snip...

THINGS QUICKLY GET MURKY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LATE
MONDAY AS THE NAM/WRF AND GFS TURN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AND PUSH IT
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND THE TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE NAM/WRF,
ON TUESDAY THE STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY WEAKENS
ACCORDING TO THE GFS. MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF, THE GFS PUSHES AN
INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH WESTWARD THROUGH TEXAS IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. WITH REGARD TO THE FORECAST, WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GEORGE
WEST TO ALICE DURING THIS TIME. ON THURSDAY, CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK
TO PEAK FOR THE WEEK AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH IN
THE WAKE OF INVERTED TROUGH THAT PASSES TO THE WEST. CHANCES OF
PRECIP BECOME LIMITED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ONCE
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY OUT AGAIN IN
RESPONSE TO MID/LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF/SOUTH TEXAS.

Joe Bastardi posted earlier, from Baton Rouge. I think he has the whole family with him. From the way he describes his son Garrett, a nice mid-strength tropical storm, besides being good for my lawn, would make his son, who normally just has what Pennsylvania can provide as far as severe weather, and winter storms, happy and make his trip a memorable one.

[southerngale]

NWS Houston overnight AFD mentions the possibility of development.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
457 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM HIGH OVER THE NW GULF AND WEST TEXAS TROUGH
LEADING TO SE-SW WINDS OVER THE REGION AND QUIET WARM NIGHT.
STORMS DEVELOPED OVER LA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
MOVED S-SW AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS BRIEFLY VISIBLE NEAR JSO-
LFK A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO AND NOW NEAR LAKE LIVINGSTON. ST DECK
SPREAD OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADVECTING/DEVELOPING
NORTHEASTWARD MAY IMPACT CLL/UTS/CXO/IAH TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AN
EASILY MIXED ATMOSPHERE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRYING TO THE NORTHEAST
AS UPPER CYC CIRC NEAR MIDLAND MOVES WEST AND THE POOLED MOISTURE
OVER SW LA GETS PUSHED IN SETX...THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES OF
THE LAKES REGION INTERACT WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
TODAY SHOULD BE HOT AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 96-102
DEGREE RANGE INLAND...3-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RECORDS LOOK
TO BE IN JEOPARDY. SKIES CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP
BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 70S...POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG BUT AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INSERT IT AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE THINS SUNDAY
AND ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP...HAVE NOT GONE AS WARM AS THE MAV
GUIDANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES BUT STILL PLENTY HOT.

THE FORECAST GETS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED POOLED MOISTURE OF LA (AND NE
GULF) SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN TURNS WEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE (OVER
AZ/NM THIS MORNING) MOVES EAST INTO OK/NTX AND A VIGOROUS UPPER
LOW OVER CUBA MOVES WNW ACROSS THE GULF. THESE TWO ELEMENTS
INTERACT AND IF THE NAM/GFS 00Z SOLUTIONS ARE TO BE BELIEVED THEN
A TD/TS IS GOING TO COME TO PASS...BUT ECMWF JUST INDICATES AN
AREA OF MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE AND WEAK WINDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN
THE GFS/NAM LOOK TO BE FAIRLY STOUT AND SHEAR MAY BE HIGH OVER THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM. HAVE FOLLOWED THE DRY GFS/NAM SOLUTION OUT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR NOW. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE WET IN EITHER CASE...THOUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE
TO DRY AND SUBSIDENT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO
CERTAINLY BEARS WATCH...

MARINE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THEN EYES SWING TO THE
EAST TO WATCH FOR ANY SIGNS OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. SHOULD IT SHOW ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT EXPECT
SOME MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 5-15 KNOTS WINDS AND
SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.

THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE GETS MUDDLED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO VERY LOW WEDNESDAY
AND BEYOND...THE GENERAL TREND WED-FRI IS GRADUAL DRYING AND
WARMING BACK UP FROM THE RAIN COOLED TEMPERATURES OF TUESDAY.

NOTE...CLIMATE PAGE FOR SETX UPDATED AND A GOOD SUMMARY OF THE
WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL SUMMER SO FAR IN THE PNSHGX ISSUED
YESTERDAY.

[southerngale]

And what NWS Lake Charles overnight AFD has to say about it...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
535 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008

<snippet>

CONCERNING THE TROPICS...THERE IS ALMOST UNANIMOUS SUPPORT NOW FOR
SOMETHING DEVELOPING OFF THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF...THEN MOVING WWD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. HOW MUCH...IF
ANY...SFC REFLECTION THERE IS IS UP FOR DEBATE. THE NAM IS BY FAR
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH A 40-50KT TS MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST AND
INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. THIS SOLUTION WAS DEEMED EXTREME AND
THE NAM WAS IGNORED FOR GRID PURPOSES. THE CANADIAN GEM WAS ON THE
OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM...SHOWING ALMOST NO SFC REFLECTION.
THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFS WERE BETWEEN THE TWO. FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE
FORECAST...FELT IT BEST TO USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF...WHICH YIELDED A CLOSED LOW WITH 20KT WINDS. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOMETHING TO DEVELOP...BUT THE WINDOW WILL BE
SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY SMALL AS AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN CUBA
MOVES WEST INTO THE GULF. WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

[KWT]

Interesting so some of the models are indeed showing a TD developing from this, so it does need watching it seems.

[Ed Mahmoud]

6Z GFS - close to the coast, weak surface reflection but no closed low, but rain, glorious rain!

heaviest rain seems to favor SW LA vs SE Texas...

[ronjon]

Ed, something might be developing this morning about 80-100 miles south of Mobile - have to wait for good VIS SAT later today though. Looks like good low level convergence at the tail end of the trough. Shear not ideal - maybe 10kts out of the north over the northern Gulf. Lots of moisture pooling and pressure lowest at the buoy 80 nm south of Dauphin Island - still not real low (29.90) but was falling this morning.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed, something might be developing this morning about 80-100 miles south of Mobile - have to wait for good VIS SAT later today though. Looks like good low level convergence at the tail end of the trough. Shear not ideal - maybe 10kts out of the north over the northern Gulf. Lots of moisture pooling and pressure lowest at the buoy 80 nm south of Dauphin Island - still not real low (29.90) but was falling this morning.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

Might be a bit too soon, but I do see storms on satellite there.

Today's diurnal pressure min is about the same as yesterdays, so no real trend yet.

[ronjon]

RAD from Mobile shows some storms over the FL panhandle moving SW and others over the GOM moving NE. Maybe low pressure developing futher east off the panhandle between Ft Walton and Panama City. Area to watch today.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Favorable shear is right along the coast, becoming rapidly hostile as one gets out into the Gulf.




But I believe it is forecast to get better...

6Z GFS forecasts shear never becoming really favorable, but light enough to permit some development.

I suspect 6Z GFS does not develop this more than it does because it hugs the coast as it moves Westward.



Anyway, unofficially, possible beneficial rains, with chances of a Humberto or Alicia hurricane from non-tropical origins fairly remote. And I don't need a closed isobar or 50 knot winds, I'll be happy with an inch of rain, happier with 2 inches. Happiest with three to five inches. Any more than that runs off and causes floods, even on very dry ground, and doesn't help my lawn.

[Ed Mahmoud]

RAD from Mobile shows some storms over the FL panhandle moving SW and others over the GOM moving NE. Maybe low pressure developing futher east off the panhandle between Ft Walton and Panama City. Area to watch today.

There is a suggestion of weak and loose rotation somewhere in the general vicinity of Panama City Beach. This is the upper disturbance that should, if models that predict development are right, gets the whole ball of wax started.


It has the storms as predicted, 6Z NAM suggests by later this evening a surface reflection should start developing.

We shall see.

[Kludge]

I'll be happy with an inch of rain, happier with 2 inches. Happiest with three to five inches.

Dang, Ed...you pulled an all-nighter. And I thought I wanted this thing to bring rain. We really appreciate your tracking this development so thoroughly!! You know we're hurting for rain when we don't even have a blob to watch...so we turn to the models for possible relief. I'm a NAM fan at the moment.

[tailgater]

Ed, for all your hard work on this system the NHC has decided to name this storm after you if it reaches T.S. strength.

[Dean4Storms]

Does appear to be a circulation just to my SSE on Radar.

[Portastorm]

Ed, for all your hard work on this system the NHC has decided to name this storm after you if it reaches T.S. strength.

Yes, it is only fitting that a tropical system named Edouard would impact its namesake in southeast Texas! Go Ed, Go!

[srainhoutx]

I'll be happy with an inch of rain, happier with 2 inches. Happiest with three to five inches.

Dang, Ed...you pulled an all-nighter. And I thought I wanted this thing to bring rain. We really appreciate your tracking this development so thoroughly!! You know we're hurting for rain when we don't even have a blob to watch...so we turn to the models for possible relief. I'm a NAM fan at the moment.

I hear you Kludge. I felt guilty that I had almost 4 inches of rain from Dolly up here on the NW side. And the race is on to name something after our infamous Ed.

[Pearl River]

From New Orleans AFD this fine Saturday morning:

MARINE...
SCATTERED TS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER A GOOD
MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME STRONG OR
EVEN SEVERE.

THE TROUGH THAT MOVED OVER THE GULF FRIDAY HAS STALLED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SH/TS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE OLD TROUGH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WHERE
THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LOCATED. THIS WOULD PUT THE ORIGINATING
POSITION SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLA. TIMING OF INITIATION OF THE SYSTEM
WILL BE LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. A DECREASE IN PRESSURE OF EVEN A
FEW MILLIBARS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO REACT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE MS/LA COASTAL WATERS.

[vbhoutex]

I see the circulation mentioned on the radar. I'm wondering if all the movemnet to the NE is part of a mid level circulation trying to develop or if it is just the storms moving NE along the trof. This will definitely be interesting to watch, especially with the models having at least tried to latch on to something for the last couple of days. I hope my friends that didn't get the rain I did from Dolly can get some from this if anything develops.

[srainhoutx]

HPC chimed in this morning concerning GOM disturbance...snipet...

THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM COMING INTO TEXAS DAY 3...BUT DO NOT SEE
ANY SUPPORT FOR THE VIGOROUS DEPICTION OF THE 00Z NAM THERE.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

[Kennethb]

Most reporting stations on LA, MS, and AL Gulf coast reporting SW winds. Developmenet should be slow. Perhaps waiting on one more piece of energy to drop in today? In favor of development is the calendar now read August compared to last weeks disturbance. Every day into August general conditions become more favorable for development climatology wise.