Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

[Weatherfreak000]

Indeed, were it not for the SAL we would be looking at a potentially very potent system. Dangerous when you consider the location and the time of year.

[xcool22]

nice anticyclone

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[xcool22]

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[Weatherfreak000]

What's the story with GFS? Sending it thru the Florida Straits? More Model Runs.

[Wx_Warrior]

lol @ gfs

[wyq614]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

jeje, they are telling us that the system can survive through all the unfavorable conditions in those coming days.

[KWT]

This one has a decent chance of development IMO down the roasd but the only problem maybe if it passes right over the islands, from where it is now its a real risk.

That being said conditions IMO look decent down the line and with a large ULH developing I've gotta think Texas again with this one. Probably no real chance of development in the next 3-4 days though IMO...

The key for the track is just how far west the ridge gets, the GFS looks decent this time for that, the ECM is actually a bit weaker with the upper high and probably indicates a possible Florida panhandle type system.

[Gustywind]

LATEST

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W FROM 9N TO 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
CENTERED ABOUT 565 NM EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CURRENTLY...
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS PARTICULARLY FROM 15N TO 20N. THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THEN OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MON. EARLY THIS
MORNING...SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE BEGINNING TO
REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 24-HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE IS 2 MB JUST
E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GR

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

First Vis iamgery coming in now, but from the looks of things there is still some low level turning.

My own punt would be the models are a little too far north right now and the wave/circulation goes just to the south of the islands, maybe even right through Hispaniola/Cuba but I do think development is quite possible, esp if it can stay over water.

[cycloneye]

They relocated the center almost east of Guadeloupe as the circle shows.

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Blown Away, to answer your last night's question more boldly, after the 8 AM TWO I say over or just north of PR.

[Blown Away]

Thanks Luis, I was in the midst of asking that question. I had been looking 565 miles E and seeing nothing. That being said where do you think they position the broad low?

[cycloneye]

:uarrow:
Thanks Luis, I was in the midst of asking that question. I had been looking 565 miles E and seeing nothing. That being said where do you think they position the broad low?

I am eagered to see the invest to then follow the best track positions.

[KWT]

Looks like they are now going with the region of convection and the more northerly location. Thats not a good thing for the system in the short term because that means its going to come right into the ULL and the strong shear still coming round the ULL southern flank. It probably will help to flare up convection though.

If the more northerly location is right, it'll have a shot at more favourable conditions closer to the Bahamas though the models suggest high shear will be lurking only just to the north...

[Blown Away]

I keep looking @15N/53W and seeing some kind of rotation?? Where do you think they would place the broad low?

[KWT]

Another weak ULL is in the E.Gulf as well creating a real broad region of high shear right now cutting right through the path this wave is progged to take...thats gotta change if this is going to have any shot. I'd guess the models do reduce the shear but as I said the models do also have a strong region of shear north of say 22N the whole way into the Gulf so really it has to stay to the south of that.

Shear about to increase for this system, entering a fairly divergent set-up which will establish more convection as we are starting to see now.