2014 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

TD and Rammasun?

[euro6208]

Rammasun and Pre-Matmo southeast of Guam.



Rammasun approaches the CNMI while Matmo strengthens...



Rammasun recurves while Matmo strengthens and closer to Guam...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC expects Neoguri to be a category 1 typhoon by 03AM JST and could even get stronger earlier! This is an amazing rate of intensification, and is expected to peak over 125 knots or stronger. JMA is expecting a "Very Strong" typhoon with 85 kt winds or more by Monday. And wait, we even have more typhoons?

[euro6208]

Rammasun east of the CNMI and a closed LPA in the Philippine Sea...



Quite a change from the previous runs...12Z barely develops *Rammasun* untit recurve...No more twin typhoons...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF expects Neoguri to be stronger than Haiyan, and would be the strongest storm in HISTORY in terms of 1-minute sustained wind speeds. JTWC has Neoguri intensifyig to 150kts and is the strongest forecast ever for a storm currently a category 4 typhoon.

[euro6208]

TD/TS over the Marianas



Rammasun east of the Marianas



Strengthens but no threat



Pre-Matmo entering the WPAC from the CPAC

[euro6208]

Incoming MJO and Kelvin Wave increases development...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2 more typhoons coming. And we are very impressed with the now Super Typhoon Neoguri, and is forecast to peak at 145 kts close to Kadena, while the JMA has it as a violent typhoon at 910 mb and 105 kts, roughly a category 5 equivalent.

[euro6208]

Near category 5 Neoguri mighty impressive. All that energy buildup during the typhoon lull is feeding this system literally traversing the world's warmest waters near the philippines...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Because of mighty impressive Super Typhoon Neoguri, the WPac ACE is now 59% of normal, as the basin may rapidly recover from being below-normal. It may increase even more as it has not yet reached its forecasted peak-145 knots and will sustain category 5 intensity for almost a day. There is also some typhoon in the GFS runs, and if it pans out, it will even increase the WPAC ACE more. This is like a repeat of the 2013 season, except that the storms are stronger this year.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS forecasts typhoon Rammasun to deepen to 981 hPa and to pack winds of 64 kts.

[euro6208]

Euro developing Rammasun much stronger than previous runs...

Looks like Rammasun wants to be like his big brother Neoguri...



GFS has this farther to the north and east towards Japan and eventually landfalling over Japan and another possibly system east of the Marianas...

[euro6208]

Likely what the models are developing down the road

[euro6208]

Rammasun





Traverses it over the Philippine Sea.

Another typhoon northeast of Guam.



Typhoon Rammasun makes landfall at 962mb...



Typhoon Matmo strengthens some more...



Guam NWS:

NAVGEM...ECMWF AND GFS ALL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM OVER
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...THEN TRACK IT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
MARIANAS. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY FACTORS THIS IN VIA THE WIND
GRIDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY AND ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING UNTIL THE FUTURE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI COMES INTO BETTER
FOCUS.

[euro6208]

Pretty Interesting stats from Maue...

Neoguri is the 141 Super Typhoon since 1979...

Super Typhoon is 130 knots, a strong category 4 on the SSHS...

[euro6208]

Big change from previous runs...Now only shows a large TC in the Philippine Sea and another developing system east of the Marianas...



Both system remains weak



End of run...

[euro6208]

00Z shows this...978mb typhoon into Tokyo...

[euro6208]

This reminds me of the GFS prediction last November. Could we have a super typhoon in the near future?

Yep we did

JTWC expects Neoguri to be a category 1 typhoon by 03AM JST and could even get stronger earlier! This is an amazing rate of intensification, and is expected to peak over 125 knots or stronger. JMA is expecting a "Very Strong" typhoon with 85 kt winds or more by Monday. And wait, we even have more typhoons?

As per the latest ECMWF and GFS runs, they only show 1...

ECMWF expects Neoguri to be stronger than Haiyan, and would be the strongest storm in HISTORY in terms of 1-minute sustained wind speeds. JTWC has Neoguri intensifyig to 150kts and is the strongest forecast ever for a storm currently a category 4 typhoon.

Epic fail.

Dry air totally ruin Neoguri's chances. If it weren't for dry air, Neoguri would probrably be right up there...

[euro6208]

Watching this area closely as models develop this into a formidable typhoon...



Rammasun over the Marianas and Pre-Matmo east of the Marianas



Rammasun deepens to 972 mb and continued rapid intensification. Matmo remains weak...



Deepens to 933mb before taiwan landfall and Typhoon Matmo lashing the CNMI...

[cycloneye]

Invest 92W is up. Will it be the next Typhoon in the basin?