2015 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

NOAA EPAC outlook is above average.

15-22 named storms,
•7-12 hurricanes,
•5-8 major hurricanes,
•An ACE range 110%-190% of the median.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/E ... icane.html

[Yellow Evan]

NOAA EPAC outlook is above average.

15-22 named storms,
•7-12 hurricanes,
•5-8 major hurricanes,
•An ACE range 110%-190% of the median.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/E ... icane.html

Pretty much talks about the same positive factors I've been talking about for quite a bit. No surprise here.

[CrazyC83]

IMO those numbers are conservative, but they make sense.

[Yellow Evan]

IMO those numbers are conservative, but they make sense.

They aren't conservative IMO and within range of most moderate to strong Ninos.

[tolakram]

Posted this in the 92E thread, reposting here.

If the second storm exists it appears to take shape in 72 - 96 hours.

96 hours


Model Images

120 hours


192 hours


I suppose two distinct storms is looking a little more feasible?

[cycloneye]

And just like that Yellow Evan,NHC mentions the Euro one.

An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical wave.
Environment conditions could become more favorable for some
development of this system by the weekend while it moves slowly to
the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

And just like that Yellow Evan,NHC mentions the Euro one.

An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical wave.
Environment conditions could become more favorable for some
development of this system by the weekend while it moves slowly to
the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

No surprise, since the GFS is hinting at it.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS still showing another storm near MX in the long-range.

[Yellow Evan]

[img]http://i59.tinypic.com/29a80y.png][/img]

NOGAPS develops the 0/20 and also a thing SW of 92E



GFS Ensemble support on the rise for the 0/20.

[Yellow Evan]

2. An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical wave.
Environment conditions could become more favorable for some
development of this system by the weekend while it moves slowly to
the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Blanca, Carlos, Delores. Watch out EPAC, showing this and it's only June?

[dexterlabio]

It's interesting that this basin seems to be feeling the "El Nino effect" like the WPAC. Let's see if we can see a major emerging out of these potential systems. Of course I am hoping for a safe hurricane season. (Though the pattern during El Nino is that cyclones tend to get picked up by the trough and move NE hitting landmass isn't it?)

[cycloneye]

It's interesting that this basin seems to be feeling the "El Nino effect" like the WPAC. Let's see if we can see a major emerging out of these potential systems. Of course I am hoping for a safe hurricane season. (Though the pattern during El Nino is that cyclones tend to get picked up by the trough and move NE hitting landmass isn't it?)

But at least Andres looks like it will stay in open waters however what will form behind (0/20) may be a threat.

[Yellow Evan]

It's interesting that this basin seems to be feeling the "El Nino effect" like the WPAC. Let's see if we can see a major emerging out of these potential systems. Of course I am hoping for a safe hurricane season. (Though the pattern during El Nino is that cyclones tend to get picked up by the trough and move NE hitting landmass isn't it?)

Not necessarily. It's just that landfalls tend to be stronger.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

A small area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some gradual development
of this system is possible early next week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

12z Euro has 0/20 making landfall at 240 hours near Puerto Vallarta.

[Kingarabian]

ECMWF seems to be right with its two system formation. Kudos.

Also looks like we may be getting our first Epac recon.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS liking the long-range, but keep in mind it tends to overdue long-range systems during an MJO pulse.

[cycloneye]

Yikes! 18z GFS bombs 0/20 to 933 mbs.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS also has Major Hurricane Carlos