2015 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

The most active typhoon season, 1964 will be challenged this year...That year, 39 named storms and 26 typhoons ravage the area...

The 11th storm that year didn't develop until July 27. 1964 was special, the first 11 storms, 10 of those developed into typhoons. 2015 is 8...

This year the 11th storm developed on July 3rd...

Now it's a race for the 12th storm which 1964 didn't have till early August...

1964- 11/10/5 MT/1 cat 5
2015- 11/8/6 MT/3 cat 5

I'd say this year is performing more quality than 1964...

[euro6208]

As for most Category 5's, the record belongs to 1997. 10 of them...

1997 didn't have the 4th Cat 5 until August 8 and 5th till September 2...

2015's Nangka is poised to become one anytime potentially beating 1997's Winnie by almost a full month...

[euro6208]

Average for July 8th for named storms is 5.2 so we are 6 above average...

I see a record season shaping up...

[TheAustinMan]

Himawari-8 true color image of the three storms currently active over the WPAC taken at 02:30 UTC. It'll be interesting to see what the effects of these storms will be on the ocean waters in the long-term.

[galaxy401]

I know the WPAC is currently in a strong MJO. Anyone have a graph of the MJO forecast and where you got it from?

[TheAustinMan]

I know the WPAC is currently in a strong MJO. Anyone have a graph of the MJO forecast and where you got it from?

Various links and images related to the MJO are available here from the Climate Prediction Center. (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /mjo.shtml)

Below is the latest GFS ensemble spread for the MJO, which can be found here. (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... egfs.shtml)

[cycloneye]

HALOLA has moved to the West Pacific basin and for sure it will get many more ACE units for the basin..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This is about 15 hours old but you can see how active this season is...

2015 ACE through July 8 is the 2nd highest on record...

Already overtook 2004 and will continue to do so with twin major typhoons which are long lived long trackers

[euro6208]

looks like a quiet 2 weeks coming up as the record MJO leaves our area...

[euro6208]

After that monster record MJO which disappointedly produced only 5 storms, 4 of them typhoons and 2 of them becoming Cat 4's (Satellite alone, could have been 5's), this map doesn't show anything. It's the calm before the onslaught...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

5 STORMS ONLY? ISN'T THAT HISTORIC?

Chan-hom was never close to cat 5 hahaha

[euro6208]

:uarrow: 5 STORMS ONLY? ISN'T THAT HISTORIC?

Chan-hom was never close to cat 5 hahaha

After that monster record MJO which disappointedly produced only 5 storms, 4 of them typhoons and 2 of them becoming Cat 4's (Satellite alone, could have been 5's), this map doesn't show anything. It's the calm before the onslaught...

Exactly what i said...Only 2 Cat 4's Chan-hom and Nangka

[euro6208]

MJO arriving back late week or first week of next month

[euro6208]

GFS's been forecasting a CPAC disturbance to move into the WPAC and bottom out at 895 mb but later runs has it weaker but still a Cat 5. Luckily, it recurves just as it passes north of the Marianas...

[euro6208]

Some upwelling from the previous storms especially around the Marianas, Japan, and China and those should warm up but the ocean looks super favorable elsewhere. Look for more scary long trackers from the CPAC as the nino rages on...

[euro6208]

Looks like shear is below average for the entire basin according to a map from TCFP...

[euro6208]

Here comes Soudelor and and GFS makes it a Cat 5 before barreling the Northernmost islands of the CNMI

[euro6208]

Molave?

[euro6208]

EURO agrees as well. It hints of a LPA that moves into the area and strengthens it to at least a TS and takes it through the Marianas...Previous runs had a recurving typhoon...

[euro6208]

Since my last post on GFS, it has trended weaker with that phantom typhoon. Another Marianas storm...