Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[NDG]

Shear is letting up in the Gulf of Mexico though correct?

Most of the GOM, except extreme NW coastal areas, has 20-35 knot northerly and easterly windshear.

Still not as high as the last few days correct? Also, a lot less than the Atlantic side of Florida right now.

About the same since last week in the GOM, not much change.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Okay thanks very nice to hear back about this. I seen the maps at Spaghettimodels.com and they shown the shear was decreasing and looked like it sagged further south in the Gulf of Mexico. I will take your word over the maps though because you are usually right.

[lovingseason2013]

Lets hope that shear stays high as predicted!

[Steve]

Pretty nasty here right now. Energy, I'm assuming coming down ahead of the next front is interacting with the western periphery of the surface trough. Severe Tstorm is moving in out the NE/ENE, which is atypical this time of year outside of tropical and upper lows. Shows that there is lift and strong energy in the general area if the CMC is onto anything.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Pretty nasty here right now. Energy, I'm assuming coming down ahead of the next front is interacting with the western periphery of the surface trough. Severe Tstorm is moving in out the NE/ENE, which is atypical this time of year outside of tropical and upper lows. Shows that there is lift and strong energy in the general area if the CMC is onto anything.

You think something is trying to organize in the Gulf of Mexico right now?

[ftolmsteen]

Clearly a small vortex pretending to have an eye off the west coast drifting sw based off radar.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/ba ... radar.html

[Steve]

Pretty nasty here right now. Energy, I'm assuming coming down ahead of the next front is interacting with the western periphery of the surface trough. Severe Tstorm is moving in out the NE/ENE, which is atypical this time of year outside of tropical and upper lows. Shows that there is lift and strong energy in the general area if the CMC is onto anything.

You think something is trying to organize in the Gulf of Mexico right now?

No. Just ingredients are coming into play for the next possibility if low pressure was to consolidate in the SEUS or NE Gulf. It would be several days if ever with this pattern change.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Pretty nasty here right now. Energy, I'm assuming coming down ahead of the next front is interacting with the western periphery of the surface trough. Severe Tstorm is moving in out the NE/ENE, which is atypical this time of year outside of tropical and upper lows. Shows that there is lift and strong energy in the general area if the CMC is onto anything.

You think something is trying to organize in the Gulf of Mexico right now?

No. Just ingredients are coming into play for the next possibility if low pressure was to consolidate in the SEUS or NE Gulf. It would be several days if ever with this pattern change.

CMC does have a tropical storm forming this week/weekend and hitting the panhandle of Florida.

Also, of note. The tropical prediction percentages have gone up throughout the day. There was nothing there last night and now as good of a chance there as the southeast coast system.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Really good spin at 27.5N and 89W. Anyone else see it?

[Steve]

Yeah. That's what I was initially referring to with the Canadian along with other, minor model support. Many people categorize the CMC as a crazy uncle type of model since it has always spawned so many phantom storms. But some of the GEM products are fairly sophisticated. And it does occasionally hit a tropical setup. Will it this time? Probably not. But what I'm reading into it at the surface is that the front comes down and somewhere in a box between the Bahamas, NC, and about 87W, low pressure consolidates. So it would either have to be a wave/impulse that rides up the front or a piece of energy that gets left behind. What's interesting is that the CMC doesn't show a trough split like you would see in a strong La Niña pattern (because we aren't), so the energy left behind doesn't necessarily back SW or WSW. It can kind of mull around waiting for the steering currents as it deepens. With the otherwise progressive pattern, you'd expect it to get picked up and sent out to the NE. Who knows? If it happens, it's a few days away. I'll be in the panhandle this wknd and prefer not to get drenched except by the Gulf. I'll probably stay up to look at the 00Z run to see how it changes.

Edit to say gfs and CMC place a weak surface low south of the LA coast in the 3 day range and don't really make anything out of it. GFS goes on to keep the East Gulf "dirty" for most of its run with a couple of concentrated areas off the FL coast. If that verifies, I wonder how much, if any, heat can be taken out the Gulf.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Tropical percentages are up in the Gulf of Mexico again. Matter of fact better chances in the Gulf of Mexico than in the Atlantic off the Southeast coast.

[tolakram]

Keep in mind the Euro has shown, for a while now, vorticity in the Big Bend area moving inland and then up the east coast.

The pay sites show this better but you can see it off the E-WALL page: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

Looks like the latest run (0z at the time of this post) still shows it but not as consolidated.

Main Tropical Atlantic E-WALL page: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html

[NCSTORMMAN]

Keep in mind the Euro has shown, for a while now, vorticity in the Big Bend area moving inland and then up the east coast.

The pay sites show this better but you can see it off the E-WALL page: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

Looks like the latest run (0z at the time of this post) still shows it but not as consolidated.

Main Tropical Atlantic E-WALL page: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html

You think anything has a chance in the Gulf of Mexico?

[TheStormExpert]

Watch the North Gulf starting this weekend.

@hurrtrackerapp: This area in the N Gulf will need to be watched this weekend for signs of organization. #watching http://t.co/8PtAMkrG4Q

[northjaxpro]

Watch the North Gulf starting this weekend.

@hurrtrackerapp: This area in the N Gulf will need to be watched this weekend for signs of organization. #watching http://t.co/8PtAMkrG4Q

I agree

[TheStormExpert]

Watch the North Gulf starting this weekend.

@hurrtrackerapp: This area in the N Gulf will need to be watched this weekend for signs of organization. #watching http://t.co/8PtAMkrG4Q

I agree

Joe B. does as well.

[tropicwatch]

I was just looking at that area where there is some vorticity and the shear is not as bad.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I was just looking at that area where there is some vorticity and the shear is not as bad.

Glad someone else noticed that. I thought I was reading the map wrong. I think the Gulf of Mexico is due for a storm to form there.

Edit: Also, there is now some center of circulation in the Gulf of Mexico as indicated here below.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 28.69,3000

[NDG]

12z ECMWF (aggressive Euro) develops a weak TD south of the MS River in 48 hrs, tracks it north immediately inland by Sunday afternoon.

Edit: Make that Sunday afternoon the MS River Delta into coastal MS by Monday morning.

[lovingseason2013]

With as warm as it has been, increasing surf, and the storms being violent every afternoon from the NE which is unusual here, I think something is def brewing. From the way the surf and winds are, it points right to the suspect area. Lets just hope shear keeps up or gets stronger!