2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

Wow look at that east coast trough on the 12Z Euro...That is almost winter-like. Taste of fall for the NE CONUS:

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS is showing the lid about to pop off at the end of the run so maybe between the 20th and 25th the lid pops off

[AxaltaRacing24]

The 12zGFS is showing the lid about to pop off at the end of the run so maybe between the 20th and 25th the lid pops off

which is right on schedule.

[SFLcane]

The 12zGFS is showing the lid about to pop off at the end of the run so maybe between the 20th and 25th the lid pops off

What’s coming off? Nothing to look at there but probably more dry air at this point.

[CyclonicFury]

The 12zGFS is showing the lid about to pop off at the end of the run so maybe between the 20th and 25th the lid pops off

I don't see any indications of the GFS showing the lid coming off yet.

[Hammy]

The 12zGFS is showing the lid about to pop off at the end of the run so maybe between the 20th and 25th the lid pops off

I don't see any indications of the GFS showing the lid coming off yet.

There does seem to be a moistening trend.

[DioBrando]

The 12zGFS is showing the lid about to pop off at the end of the run so maybe between the 20th and 25th the lid pops off

heh

where are u getting this info from

[MetroMike]

The models have been terrible this season. Why should we believe what experts are saying about a dry MDR this month?

[Hammy]

The models have been terrible this season. Why should we believe what experts are saying about a dry MDR this month?

The models if anything have been too bullish in general with the moisture content.

[gatorcane]

Let’s not forget models are not really good at predicting genesis especially once you get out beyond 5 days and especially beyond a week and definitely beyond 10 days. Sometimes they can predict something in the long-range but I wouldn’t bet on it because I think the latest upgrades particularly to the GFS have made it more conservative on predicting genesis particularly in the long-range. It would not surprise me if the next system that we see does not show up in the long-range but does in the medium-range.

[tolakram]

We've got two threads full of the season cancel crap. Let's stop it in here and keep this thread for model runs and observations on those runs only please. Use the 2019 indicators thread if you feel the need to go on record cancelling the season.

[Hammy]

As indicated by the earlier GFS run (though this may be gone next run) there does appear to be change on the way, albeit I don't trust the speed at which the models show things (often it's later than that) but it does appear that the waves should start coming off further south over the next few weeks, with a nice moisture-soaked one poised to come off in about two weeks. It's extremely long range, but about on time.

[crownweather]

FWIW, 18z GFS actually shows a couple of areas of potential development in about two weeks from now.

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[crownweather]

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1158744948650455041

[SEASON_CANCELED]

FWIW, 18z GFS actually shows a couple of areas of potential development in about two weeks from now. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190805/5c742ccdd591c72187eeb760365afb21.jpg

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Yup but im not buying anything the GFS is selling ...least of all something 2 weeks out.

[Emmett_Brown]

Early August often features quiet conditions; a continuation of the quiet conditions of July. Living in the deep South, summer seems eternal, and a relaxed sleepy rhythm takes over... peaceful mornings slowly give way to towering cumulus. You can almost set your watch by the first thunder of each afternoon. Time seems to slow down. This lull is a time to reflect; to think back about the monsters of late summer and autumn of years past. The futile efforts of long range forecasters are merely static in the background of a natural rhythm as old as the oceans themselves. While we fret about those things we cannot control, nature calmly ticks on, un-phased by our efforts to know.

[Fishing]

Early August often features quiet conditions; a continuation of the quiet conditions of July. Living in the deep South, summer seems eternal, and a relaxed sleepy rhythm takes over... peaceful mornings slowly give way to towering cumulus. You can almost set your watch by the first thunder of each afternoon. Time seems to slow down. This lull is a time to reflect; to think back about the monsters of late summer and autumn of years past. The futile efforts of long range forecasters are merely static in the background of a natural rhythm as old as the oceans themselves. While we fret about those things we cannot control, nature calmly ticks on, un-phased by our efforts to know.

Spot on
Thx


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[N2FSU]

6z GFS with SW Caribbean development:

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/yvY8K ... uGSc=w2400
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/EDFjk ... 3Wug=w2400

[cycloneye]

6z GFS with SW Caribbean development:

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/yvY8K ... uGSc=w2400
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/EDFjk ... 3Wug=w2400

This is why the long range plots are not the best to follow like a laser. 12z run has nada.

[Hurricaneman]

6z GFS with SW Caribbean development:

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/yvY8K ... uGSc=w2400
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/EDFjk ... 3Wug=w2400

This is why the long range plots are not the best to follow like a laser. 12z run has nada.

For all we know 18z may end up with 3 systems or nada that’s what’s fun about model watching