Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050916 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050916 1200 050917 0000 050917 1200 050918 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.2N 52.5W 10.7N 54.5W 11.3N 56.2W 12.0N 57.6W
BAMM 10.2N 52.5W 10.9N 54.4W 11.5N 56.1W 12.2N 57.5W
A98E 10.2N 52.5W 10.7N 55.1W 11.2N 57.4W 12.0N 59.5W
LBAR 10.2N 52.5W 10.9N 55.0W 11.8N 57.4W 12.8N 59.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050918 1200 050919 1200 050920 1200 050921 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 58.8W 13.7N 61.1W 15.0N 63.7W 16.8N 66.4W
BAMM 12.6N 58.8W 13.2N 61.5W 13.9N 64.8W 15.0N 68.6W
A98E 12.7N 61.2W 14.7N 64.5W 16.6N 67.4W 19.1N 69.3W
LBAR 13.7N 61.8W 15.5N 65.4W 17.0N 68.7W 18.4N 70.4W
SHIP 60KTS 74KTS 81KTS 89KTS
DSHP 60KTS 74KTS 81KTS 89KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.2N LONCUR = 52.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 50.0W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 46.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z Models trend west including BAMM and BAMD which were going north in past runs.

[cjrciadt]

[img][/img]
WNW track seems most likely the GFD models still goes to far N.

[cycloneye]

That graphic is not the 12:00z run.

[cjrciadt]

That graphic is not the 12:00z run.

No graphic for the noon models yet, will edit and update.

[SkeetoBite]

[gtalum]

Trending northward and eastward again.

[skysummit]

Now that's more like it....those other models that had it going north were smoking something.

[nequad]

Are we looking at the same thing??? The 0z is still showing it form into a low and pass through the Fl straits, and into the GOM and into mexico...

I think you were looking at the system north of PR. The globals are not as bullish on this system as they were yesterday and the day before. We've seen this several times already this year.

[skysummit]

Trending northward and eastward again.

HUH??????

[gtalum]

The 00:00z runs still had several models showing the storm moving well south of Hispaniola. The 12:00z runs have it hitting Hispaniola. Of course, the two models shoing 95L moving due north did move into agreement with the others.

[gtalum]

IOW, in my supremely unqualified opinion, it appears the model consensus has moved farther north than it was 12 hours ago.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ohh really....What a coincidence..What I said all if yesterday!

[cycloneye]

Another graphic of the 12:00z run.

[skysummit]

Latest visible is looking really good IMO. Look at the "sunray" affect on the southeastern corner.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropical_cyclones/tc05/ATL/95L.INVEST/ssmi/geovis/20050916.0958.f13.x.geovis.95LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-102N-525W.jpg

[donsutherland1]

Luis,

Unfortunately, per historical tropical climatology, such systems typically make it to the Caribbean. I believe the Islands will need to closely monitor this system.

[cycloneye]

Luis,

Unfortunately, per historical tropical climatology, such systems typically make it to the Caribbean. I believe the Islands will need to closely monitor this system.

Yes don the history of storms and canes entering the caribbean from the position it is now is vast.And here in Puerto Rico many of them haved been close calls or landfalls from 1851.Below is a graphic of the tracks of the many,many systems comming from the SE that affected Puerto Rico.

http://stormcarib.com/climatology/ECAR_all_car.htm

[MWatkins]

Also wanted to pass on...t-numbers fromboth SAB and TAFB as of 1145Z (7:45 AM EDT) are both at 1.0 and have been there for a while.

Still looks like it is stretched out in an elongated SW to NE tilt along the wave axis...but the low clouds on the western side appear to be bending back in a bit..which is a sign of something going on near the surface...

This mornings QSCAT pass was inconclusive...but I agree with Don the Caribbean will need to watch this thing carefully...

MW

[x-y-no]

Now this makes more sense ... for the life of me, I couldn't figure out why the medium and shallow BAM models were well north of the deep BAM yesterday, given the likely steering.

[msbee]

I am sure that all the islands are watching this one closely.
I know St. Maarten is super alert after that flash flood we had from a passing system.
The following was in the newspaper this morning from our offical Government Information Service.
It's good they are telling people to watch and be aware.


News Release

Written by Roddy Heyliger, Communications Consultant for the Government Information Service (GIS), Interim Dept. Head Marsha Beauperthuy, Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, St. Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net;

For Immediate Release: Thursday, September 15, 2005/N113

ODMP urges residents to monitor closely the progress of a Tropical Wave east of the Islands


GREAT BAY, St. Maarten (GIS) Disaster Management Coordinator/Fire Commander Winston Salomon, said on Thursday that the Office of Disaster Management & Preparedness (ODMP) is currently closely monitoring the progress of a vigorous Tropical Wave that was located on Thursday at 5.00pm 850 miles east of the Windward Islands.

Residents are being advised to monitor the progress of this system which has the potential to become a Tropical Depression over the next 24 to 48 hours.

We are coming up to the weekend and we have a weather system east of the Southern Windward Islands that bears watching. Should the system develop further, the community will be informed accordingly via the appropriate media, Disaster Coordinator Salomon told the Government Information Service (GIS) Emergency Support Function (ESF-8) on Thursday.

Disaster Coordinator Salomon added that the hurricane season is not yet over and that residents should continue to be ready and prepared to take action should that be required.

So far for the season, 15 tropical storm systems have already formed of which three have been classified as major hurricanes (Dennis, Emily, and Katrina).

The 2005 hurricane season concludes on November 30 which means 10 more weeks to go.


Roddy Heyliger

St. Maarten Government Information Service (GIS)

[SkeetoBite]

Satellite Images for AL952005 - Now on Floater 2

Visible (loop) | IR Channel (loop) | Water Vapor (loop)