Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 91L)

[Kludge]

I hear you Kludge. I felt guilty that I had almost 4 inches of rain from Dolly up here on the NW side. And the race is on to name something after our infamous Ed.

I think (hope) that Ed "van Winkle" has finally crashed for a while for some overdue shuteye. Let's hope that when he wakes up he'll have a TD to track to his lawn.

[canetracker]

Per the buoy link below, pressures are on the rise right now. However, Steve Lyons mentioned that it would take just a little drop to get something forming. Also the winds are still from the SW general direction.
http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/buoy/FLbuoy.php

[lrak]

If you look at the radar http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I see some sort of spin at 29.7N 86.0W. I know the radar is not the best tool but it sure looks like its starting something.

A type of Cristobal system maybe?

The long range radar looks even better http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[KatDaddy]

Joe B is posting while on vacation stating this not business as usual. He has some concerned about the N GOM and Texas. Last week he was not very concerned about the GOM disturbance but this time he a little more concerned. He thinks it will be more of a rain maker and "Where did this come from" rather than a Humberto.
I hope is 100% correct because we need the rain and not a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Recon tentavly for tommorow afternoon

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 02 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2008
         TCPOD NUMBER.....08-063

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO
       FLIGHT ONE  TEAL 70        FLIGHT TWO  --TEAL 71
       A. 03/1800Z                A. 04/0600Z-1200Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST      B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
       C. 03/1600Z                C. 04/0400Z
       D. 28.5N 86.5W             D. 28.2N 88.0W
       E. 03/1700 TO 04/0000Z     E. 04/0500 TO 1200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT         F. SFC TO 10,000FT
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[RL3AO]

Sounds like we should get a TWO mention at 18z and maybe 91L today.

[KWT]

Hmmm we do need to watch this closely given recon are watching this. I suppose it makes sense though just in case something does form.

Got to admit there does seem to be some rotation present on the radar but thats obviously at a higher level.

This will probably eventually be 91L I reckon.

[Honeyko]

I don't see any indication that the whole mess is going to shift far enough south to amount to much before moving back onshore in LA.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe B is posting while on vacation stating this not business as usual. He has some concerned about the N GOM and Texas. Last week he was not very concerned about the GOM disturbance but this time he a little more concerned. He thinks it will be more of a rain maker and "Where did this come from" rather than a Humberto.
I hope is 100% correct because we need the rain and not a hurricane.

JB posted, see essentially the WRF scenario, the 1964 early August A storm (Abby?), landfall near Matagorda, about 1000 mb, 40 or 50 knots. He is more enthusiastic about this than either Atlantic invest.

He should be near Texas by now, I hope his son Garrett gets a 40 or 50 mph TS to make his family road trip memorable.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't see any indication that the whole mess is going to shift far enough south to amount to much before moving back onshore in LA.

Indeed, the GFS scenario.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z NAM, still a tropical storm or depression, but not quite as impressive as earlier runs.

[KWT]

Looks like a fairly wet TD/minimal TS to me Ed, I see no reason why that can't occur either if this does start to show signs of a lower level circulation.

[HURAKAN]

An area of low pressure with lots of convection in the Gulf of Mexico may just become our next tropical system, that is if it doesn't get sheared apart and stays over the warm water. An upper-level trough over the East Coast could be the trigger this disturbance needs to realize its potential. If the above holds true, development of this system could occur as early as Monday and with a westerly track, landfall along the Texas coast could occur as early as Tuesday.

Story By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Eric Reese.

Link: http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=4

[cycloneye]

And they didnt mentioned the two invests?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just checked the databuoys off Alabama and Florida. No big pressure falls, no East winds, whatever circulation there is is aloft.

But models didn't predict surface low this early.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS- no surface circulation (but a suggestion of lower pressure in bend in isobars), but rain. Decent 850 mb vort max hugs Louisiana coast, precluding surface development.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS- who needs a surface low. Let 90L be Edouard!




Rain, glorious rain!


Edit to add- 90L can be Edouard, but Gustywind and Abajan seem cool, may it miss their islands!

[wxman57]

Just checked the databuoys off Alabama and Florida. No big pressure falls, no East winds, whatever circulation there is is aloft.

But models didn't predict surface low this early.

I was going to mention the same thing. I'm looking at a surface plot of the northern Gulf with a satellite overlay on my GARP workstation. Pretty much straight westerly winds all across the northern Gulf at about 10-15 kts. Pressures in the Gulf 1015-1016mb. This is just an upper-level feature for now. I'm hoping that we at least get some rain out of it. My bushes are dying.