Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

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Blown Away
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Re:

#341 Postby Blown Away » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:00 am

KWT wrote:Another weak ULL is in the E.Gulf as well creating a real broad region of high shear right now cutting right through the path this wave is progged to take...thats gotta change if this is going to have any shot. I'd guess the models do reduce the shear but as I said the models do also have a strong region of shear north of say 22N the whole way into the Gulf so really it has to stay to the south of that.

Shear about to increase for this system, entering a fairly divergent set-up which will establish more convection as we are starting to see now.


I agree w/ you, but the NHC states conditions could become more favorable within the next 48 hours. Does the NHC think this broad low goes N or S of the big islands? The TUTT does look to be weakening.
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#342 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:01 am

Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M

Conditions at Jul 18, 2010 - 07:00 AM EDTJul 18, 2010
2010.07.18 1100 UTC
Wind Variable at 1 MPH (1 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Showers in the vicinity
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.00 in. Hg (1016 hPa)
ob TFFR 181100Z VRB01KT 9999 VCSH FEW015CB SCT015 SCT130 BKN230 25/24 Q1016 TEMPO 1500 TSRA

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 7 AM (11) Jul 18 77 (25) 75 (24) 30.00 (1016) Variable 1 showers in the vicinity
6 AM (10) Jul 18 77 (25) 75 (24) 30.00 (1016) Calm
5 AM (9) Jul 18 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) Calm
4 AM (8) Jul 18 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) Calm
3 AM (7) Jul 18 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) Calm
2 AM (6) Jul 18 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) NE 1 light rain showers
1 AM (5) Jul 18 77 (25) 75 (24) 30.00 (1016) W 2
Midnight (4) Jul 18 78 (26) 75 (24) 30.03 (1017) Calm
11 PM (3) Jul 17 78 (26) 75 (24) 30.03 (1017) WSW 2
10 PM (2) Jul 17 78 (26) 77 (25) 30.03 (1017) Calm
9 PM (1) Jul 17 78 (26) 77 (25) 30.03 (1017) Variable 2
8 PM (0) Jul 17 78 (26) 75 (24) 30.00 (1016) NW 1
7 PM (23) Jul 17 80 (27) 75 (24) 30.00 (1016) Calm
6 PM (22) Jul 17 80 (27) 75 (24) 30.00 (1016) Variable 2
5 PM (21) Jul 17 82 (28) 75 (24) 30.00 (1016) Calm
4 PM (20) Jul 17 80 (27) 73 (23) 30.00 (1016) Variable 2
3 PM (19) Jul 17 82 (28) 77 (25) 30.00 (1016) S 7
2 PM (18) Jul 17 82 (28) 77 (25) 30.00 (1016) SSE 7
1 PM (17) Jul 17 86 (30) 78 (26) 30.03 (1017) SE 8
Noon (16) Jul 17 86 (30) 77 (25) 30.00 (1016) ESE 15
11 AM (15) Jul 17 86 (30) 77 (25) 30.00 (1016) E 14
10 AM (14) Jul 17 82 (28) 77 (25) 30.00 (1016) Variable 2
9 AM (13) Jul 17 80 (27) 77 (25) 30.03 (1017) SE 5
Oldest 8 AM (12) Jul 17 80 (27) 77 (25) 30.03 (1017) E 3
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#343 Postby rockyman » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:02 am

6z GFS Para in 168 hours:

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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_168m.gif
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Re: Large wave approaching the Leeward Islands - Code Yellow

#344 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:05 am

Puerto Rico doesn't need more rain as we are way above normal in the rainfall amounts (44.69 inches) so far in 2010 (Over 22 inches above normal)

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.55          1.37 1977   0.14   0.41     0.02
  MONTH TO DATE    4.25                      2.13   2.12     1.30
  SINCE JUN 1     13.48                      5.65   7.83    11.67
  SINCE JAN 1     44.69                     22.11  22.58    28.77
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#345 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:10 am

:uarrow:
That's worrying... :eek:
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#346 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:12 am

06z Para GFS takes the wave more or less right along the whole of the caribbean on a Georges type track.

If it went just to the south or north it'd probably develop before the Gulf...
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#347 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:13 am

Convection on the increase during the last 2 hours...
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#348 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:32 am

Yeah probably as a result of its interaction with the shear coming from the ULL...
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Re:

#349 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:41 am

KWT wrote:Yeah probably as a result of its interaction with the shear coming from the ULL...

That's right i tkink...
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Re: Large wave approaching the Leeward Islands - Code Yellow

#350 Postby Blown Away » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:42 am

Does anybody see any sign of a broad low?
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#351 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:48 am

Image
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Re: Large wave approaching the Leeward Islands - Code Yellow

#352 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:53 am

Blown Away wrote:Does anybody see any sign of a broad low?


I still think there is stronger turning back to the SE of where the NHC are watching, no doubt the convection is off to the NW though nearer the upper level low. Personally looks like the NHC may have just followed the broad turning with convection rather then the stronger turning and I'm not sure whether that'll come off...but then again who knows!
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Re: Large wave approaching the Leeward Islands - Code Yellow

#353 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:59 am

Closeup visible image.

Image
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#354 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 18, 2010 8:03 am

Either way whether this develops or not its going to really raise the rainfall chances across a good portion of the Caribbean Islands in the next 3-5 days.
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#355 Postby rockyman » Sun Jul 18, 2010 8:09 am

Any circulation is elongated east to west...around or just south of Puerto Rico's latitude:

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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html
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#356 Postby Vortex » Sun Jul 18, 2010 8:19 am

6Z NAM fairly agressive with developing a Tropical storm and moving it into the bahamas. Regardless, the upper air pattern should continue to improve and the main hindrance may be land interaction depending on the exact location/tract of any LLC.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re: Large wave approaching the Leeward Islands - Code Yellow

#357 Postby boca » Sun Jul 18, 2010 8:39 am

It still the NAM I don't believe that model unless the system is already developed. That model cries wolf all summer long usually.
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#358 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 18, 2010 8:57 am

Yellow alert has been required for the Northern Leewards. :rarrow: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php
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Re: Large wave approaching the Leeward Islands - Code Yellow

#359 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 18, 2010 8:58 am

The latest.

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Re: Large wave approaching the Leeward Islands - Code Yellow

#360 Postby Fego » Sun Jul 18, 2010 9:06 am

Half an hour later...
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