Caribbean development? (Is invest 92L)

[Vortex]

ivan, do you have a link?

[Ivanhater]

So does Nogaps

[Ivanhater]

ivan, do you have a link?

Canadian

[Wx_Warrior]

Sorta happy that I see a landfall here this far out. Rather now than 3 day cone.

[Wx_Warrior]

Few days before Rita anniversary.

[ROCK]

Houston....nah that is really Pensacola.....

GFS makes sense in the short term if it takes time to wrap up....I think maybe the CMC, NOGAPS and NAM wrap it up to fast. JMO though....the CMC has been real good in the short term as well...

ok whos staying up for the EURO!!

[Vortex]

00z H+144 CMC strengthens storm at end of run once passing over DR and headed through SE bahamas likely towards southern fl or fl straits in the extended





00z cmc loop




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm up anyway Rock...use journalists never sleep.

BTW, anything developed yet?

[Ivanhater]

Ugh have to be up for PT at 520 am but I probably will stay up

[Vortex]

Nogaps north coast of cuba/fl straits end of run



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

Ugh have to be up for PT at 520 am but I probably will stay up

fixing to pack it in myself....EURO will be interesting....it does fairly well with the upper air environment within 144-196hr....bet you it dont bury it into MX this run...

[Ivanhater]

Lol Rock..

Nogaps



Canadian

[Ivanhater]

Long range Canadian

[Weatherfreak000]

991MB under Florida Straits is definitely a dangerous scenario...

Edit: Early track guidance likes Texas! Unbelievable....sept 9th La Nina and the GOM is on the board.

[ROCK]

so split camps right now as far as tracks....NOGAPS and CMC thru the islands weak....GFS under the islands and doesnt ramp up until the Yucatan channel...the NAM sits and spins for 84hrs....

will have to wait for the EURO now..no HWRF or GFDL to entertain us while we wait...

[Weatherfreak000]

I am interested to see whether or not the NHC goes ahead and code orange this so we CAN indeed get the invest classification. I am not certain organization is quite there but the model support is about as good as it gets and they nailed Igor...

[ROCK]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor.GIF


I am interested to see whether or not the NHC goes ahead and code orange this so we CAN indeed get the invest classification. I am not certain organization is quite there but the model support is about as good as it gets and they nailed Igor...

I agree....would be nice to see some other models

[Wx_Warrior]

Took the words right out of my mouth Rock. Was just comparing CMC with/ GFS position.

[ROCK]

Long range Canadian

at 240hr that ridge aint going to hold. Not in this pattern..NGOM is in play if that were to verify...IMO

[Weatherfreak000]

That would means if this develops at this point everywhere in the GOM is in play