Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[Vortex]

H+144 emerging of N coast of DR, ridging reloading along the east coast...



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal144.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Is it just me or when you run this loop, does it appear that the stratocumulus clouds (marking the location of the dry air) are breaking up? If so, that would indicate increasing instability. Offtopic: By the way, I really like the new server...keep the upgrades coming!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

Actually I was just about to mention that and even with the minimal about of convection, you can already see the low level structure improving and tightening. Seems convergence is increasing and if it continues it can start to overcome some of the dry air.

[Ivanhater]

H+144 emerging of N coast of DR, ridging reloading along the east coast...



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal144.gif

Quick side note...looks like a tropical storm already coming off Africa!

[Aric Dunn]

If they're talking about recon, perhaps it's time to declare an invest?

you would think so right lol or at least a mention it at the 2pm TWO ?

[SFLcane]

Is it just me or when you run this loop, does it appear that the stratocumulus clouds (marking the location of the dry air) are breaking up? If so, that would indicate increasing instability. Offtopic: By the way, I really like the new server...keep the upgrades coming!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

Actually I was just about to mention that and even with the minimal about of convection, you can already see the low level structure improving and tightening. Seems convergence is increasing and if it continues it can start to overcome some of the dry air.

The center is near 14N and the closest convection is in the monsoon trof south of 10N latitude...more than 250 nmi away!

[EDR1222]

17 pages for something the NHC isn't even recognizing yet as a potential area for development ( is that a record ? ). I think we are all ready for something interesting to track ! I know I am

[Vortex]

H+156 intensifying SE bahamas...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal156.gif

[Aric Dunn]

156 hours nearly identical again to 6z. except the trough over the east coast is much weaker and flatter. could be more ridging ?

[Aric Dunn]

Is it just me or when you run this loop, does it appear that the stratocumulus clouds (marking the location of the dry air) are breaking up? If so, that would indicate increasing instability. Offtopic: By the way, I really like the new server...keep the upgrades coming!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

Actually I was just about to mention that and even with the minimal about of convection, you can already see the low level structure improving and tightening. Seems convergence is increasing and if it continues it can start to overcome some of the dry air.

The center is near 14N and the closest convection is in the monsoon trof south of 10N latitude...more than 250 nmi away!

No there is some minimal convection developing nearly dead center of circ ..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

['CaneFreak]

Nope. Convection is firing near 13/14 N...did you look at the loop?

Is it just me or when you run this loop, does it appear that the stratocumulus clouds (marking the location of the dry air) are breaking up? If so, that would indicate increasing instability. Offtopic: By the way, I really like the new server...keep the upgrades coming!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

Actually I was just about to mention that and even with the minimal about of convection, you can already see the low level structure improving and tightening. Seems convergence is increasing and if it continues it can start to overcome some of the dry air.

The center is near 14N and the closest convection is in the monsoon trof south of 10N latitude...more than 250 nmi away!

[Vortex]

H+168 deepening over the bahamas, ridging building in to the N...looks like FL again I suspect...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal168.gif

[Aric Dunn]

H+168 deepening over the bahamas, ridging building in to the N...looks like FL again I suspect...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal168.gif

yep seems that way trough lifting out leaving weak steering

[Vortex]

H+174 really intensifying over bahamas, continues wnw towards FL



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal174.gif

[Scorpion]

These GFS runs are starting to get boring... same result every time

[Aric Dunn]

180 hrs central bahamas.. weak steering..

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... tImage=yes

[Vortex]

FL or maybe up the east coast this run????

[Aric Dunn]

These GFS runs are starting to get boring... same result every time

boring.. lol could be worse.... could inconsistent and annoying, aggravating, and otherwise causing Unwanted stress... but not that Tropical weather is stressful or anything... lol

[Vortex]

H216 exact location of 00z ECM and long range canadian just off the E cost of FL and bombing..


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal216.gif

[Aric Dunn]

FL or maybe up the east coast this run????

204 hours.. just off miami heading wnw.. turn should come after landfall on this one..

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... tImage=yes

[Ivanhater]

Georgia/South Carolina border....ridging continues to build and pushes it well inland.