Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[Steve]

12z ECMWF (aggressive Euro) develops a weak TD south of the MS River in 48 hrs, tracks it north immediately inland by Sunday afternoon.

That's where the 00z Canadian/CMC/GEM is if is even an actual depression. Same thing with the 12z. GFS is a little further west with the energy. Canadian had this down if it verifies. GFS probably backs the energy too far west, but if it dips farther south/southwest than indicated by the ECMWF and CMC, it could be right.

Many will note that people have been talking about looking south of this current front for at least a week. Patterns have foretold the place to look coupled with the El Nino/Progressive pattern stating that a split was more or less out of the question, and as noted last night, just a piece of energy gets left behind. As fast as they have it, it sort of tails behind what would be the front coming back up as a warm front as the airmass behind it lifts out to the NE. Could be a rainy few days I guess. QPF (which I believe is run off the GFS) still keeps the bulk of the rain in two spots - off the mouth of the river and off the Big Bend in the 5-7 day totals. The difference is that the 2 day range has most of the rain south of the mouth of the MS River, and later in the 7 day period has the bulk off the FL Coast.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

[Steve]

Then it looks like the high-res NAM is more in line with the GFS splitting the energy along the surface trough where a piece sort of heads to the NW Gulf and dissipates then cyclonic turning near Florida lifts out with the front. This would be more in line with what the QPF is showing.

Regular NAM (simulated radar) is pretty much the same, except it appears to show a tightening low in the SW Atlantic after the energy crosses Florida and gets out there. It looks like the front out ahead of it sort of washes out and a new wave or spin forms in the wake.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I personally think a storm is forming as we speak right below Louisiana and I see the lower level circulation going south away from Mississippi/Alabama border. Just my personal opinion. Shear seems like it is relaxing because I am not seeing the clouds being blown away like the last few days (at least in the G.O.M). Could I be wrong? Yes, I could be and I am not a weatherman but it is just a gut feeling.

[NDG]

I personally think a storm is forming as we speak right below Louisiana and I see the lower level circulation going south away from Mississippi/Alabama border. Just my personal opinion. Shear seems like it is relaxing because I am not seeing the clouds being blown away like the last few days (at least in the G.O.M). Could I be wrong? Yes, I could be and I am not a weatherman but it is just a gut feeling.

Vorticity is mostly above the surface at this time, based on surface reports. Give it 24-48 hrs, at least.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I personally think a storm is forming as we speak right below Louisiana and I see the lower level circulation going south away from Mississippi/Alabama border. Just my personal opinion. Shear seems like it is relaxing because I am not seeing the clouds being blown away like the last few days (at least in the G.O.M). Could I be wrong? Yes, I could be and I am not a weatherman but it is just a gut feeling.

Vorticity is mostly above the surface at this time, based on surface reports. Give it 24-48 hrs, at least.

Okay there are a lot more knowledgeable people than me on here and I am but a simple man. I seen the earth wind map and thought that was representing lower level spin.

[NDG]

12z Euro forecasts better upper level conditions for the north central GOM by this weekend, so perhaps the Euro's forecast will pan out this time.

[NDG]

I personally think a storm is forming as we speak right below Louisiana and I see the lower level circulation going south away from Mississippi/Alabama border. Just my personal opinion. Shear seems like it is relaxing because I am not seeing the clouds being blown away like the last few days (at least in the G.O.M). Could I be wrong? Yes, I could be and I am not a weatherman but it is just a gut feeling.

Vorticity is mostly above the surface at this time, based on surface reports. Give it 24-48 hrs, at least.

Okay there are a lot more knowledgeable people than me on here and I am but a simple man. I seen the earth wind map and thought that was representing lower level spin.

Don't get me wrong, there is a broad circulation overall along with a surface trough but a closed well defined circulation has not formed yet, IMO.

[NCSTORMMAN]

NDG,

You are one of the chosen few I trust on this board and followed a lot of what you have said the past few years reading this board. So, if you say so then it is unless proven otherwise. Either way things are heating up across the entire Atlantic and G.O.M. Last year not so much.

[Steve]

Okay there are a lot more knowledgeable people than me on here and I am but a simple man. I seen the earth wind map and thought that was representing lower level spin.[/quote]

Don't get me wrong, there is a broad circulation overall along with a surface trough but a closed well defined circulation has not formed yet, IMO.[/quote]

Agreed on that point but I kind of agree with NC on the upper vorticity. Earlier today, almost everything was at 850 and 700 with just a shade at 500 and absolutely nothing at 200. So the lower pressure, or at least its energy, seems to be sort of in the lower-mid levels - though obviously not well defined.

Recent data observations from buoys and ships in the area don't really show that much. There is a slight trend down, air temps are mostly in the upper 80's and water temps are +/- 86. Wind speeds are low and mostly out of the NW-NE. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... E&dist=250

[tropicwatch]

Here in Panama City we are at 29.88 currently.

[Nimbus]

Here in Panama City we are at 29.88 currently.

Most of the northern gulf buoys are experiencing surface pressure drops.
New plume of convection south of NOLA, i'm curious to see how long it takes for the thunderheads to get blown off by the shear.

[HeeBGBz]

The afternoon storms are building here in Biloxi. They appear to be coming from the northeast but the weather app says sw winds. Pressure is 29.91.

[ronjon]

Given the ECMs favorable upper level forecast it seems likely something may spin up in the north-central gulf area this weekend. Some home brew action perhaps.

[Hammy]

All models seem to develop at least a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

[caneman]

What direction would it head? We don't want it in Clearwater. We're flooded out.

[northjaxpro]

If we see development of this Low, it would be on the tail end of that old surface trough which has been in place all week long across the Florida peninsula SW into the GOM. Models seem to want to develop a Low just south of the MS Delta region this weekend. Steering is still weak, but any motion would likely be north-northeast toward the coast along that old trough axis.

Shear is forecast to finally ease off across the Northern gulf region, so a depression may materialize down there. We will watch and wait.

[Dean4Storms]

Storms passed through Destin this evening from the NE moving SW, strange in that it felt more tropical in nature, no real cooling effect from the rain. That Storm went on to become Severe just West of Ft. Walton Bch. heading toward P'Cola with continuous lightning, as the NWS in Mobile called it, a lightning bomb!

Believe development in the Gulf might have legs, this convection already has more of a tropical feel to it.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Does anyone actually think something will come of this spin in the G.O.M? Vorticity is moving all over the place now closer to Florida and no new convection near it.

Slowly thinking that I was wrong with my gut feeling.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at satellite and radar composites, there is a pretty good flare-up of convection in the North Central GOM south of the Louisiana coast. I have watched that area for several hours and there has been no movement to that area. The convection which moved through your region Dean is moving southwest as you mentioned.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

That storm complex has actually been moving sw from ne all afternoon. Line of storms blew through baton rouge around 2 then a shield of light rain developed behind it. This happened yesterday as well just not as intense. Will begin to die out in a couple of hours.