2017 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

EPAC is gonna open up quite the ACE lead by July 15th. Everything screams a hyperactive (compared to climo) period starting mid-week.

That would be a 3rd straight July with hyperactivity in terms of storm formation; 2016 and 2017 (soon enough) will have more ACE producing storms compared to 2015 though.

[hurricanes1234]

Code red for the second area ...

2. A tropical wave located south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A low pressure system is expected to form well south of the coast of Mexico in association with the wave during the next day or two. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves westward at about 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

. A tropical wave located south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A low pressure
system is expected to form well south of the coast of Mexico in
association with the wave during the next day or two. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for development and a
tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the
system moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Maybe an hyperactive period comming?

[Kingarabian]

Yeah Euro Parallel makes the latter two into majors.

[Yellow Evan]

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Although
shower activity is currently disorganized, environmental conditions
are forecast to be favorable for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the disturbance
moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A third area of disturbed weather is located over the far eastern
North Pacific, south-southwest of the coast of Central America.
Some development of this system is possible late this week while it
moves westward to west-northwestward well south of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Maybe the hyperactive period that was expected may not come after all? I see the models not as agressive on intensity with the 2 prospects.

[Kingarabian]

Maybe the hyperactive period that was expected may not come after all? I see the models not as agressive on intensity with the 2 prospects.

With the way the models are forecasting the systems to setup, I have no doubt that they'll' develop into at least hurricanes.

Euro Parallel develops all three systems, although the latter two are a bit delayed.

GFS Parallel is CMC-esque developing every low pressure area that pops up in the EPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

Meanwhile the GFS shows zlich.

[Kingarabian]

Meanwhile the GFS shows zlich.

Not buying it at the time being.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual
development, and this system is likely to become a tropical
depression late this week or this weekend while the disturbance
moves generally westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another area of disturbed weather is located over the far eastern
North Pacific, a few hundred miles south of the coast of El
Salvador. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to
occur, due in part to its close proximity to the disturbance to
the west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable
for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a
tropical depression this weekend while the disturbance moves
generally westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable
for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a
tropical depression this weekend while the disturbance moves
generally westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Kingarabian]

All the models develop the 2nd system. How strong it gets depends on how long it takes to develop into a tropical storm.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro is very bullish with #2 and #3.

[cycloneye]

Here we go with #2.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased today in association with
a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be
favorable for additional development, and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression this weekend while the disturbance
moves generally westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph away
from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 95E is up

[Yellow Evan]

GFS-P only model that has much in the EPAC after 95E.

[Kingarabian]

GFS-P only model that has much in the EPAC after 95E.

12z Euro Parallel and EPS join the party.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro Parallel continues with its forecast of an intensifying TC moving due West towards 140W and a second system by Mexico.