Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[Aric Dunn]

All the models still keep developing multiple vorts at various different times that interact as a large gyre/ fujiwhara throughout the period. no consolidation.

so essentially they are not useful at the time being. have to wait until we get at least 1 llc somewhere.

[SFLcane]

Notice on the TWO nhc continues with the theme of conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development. Shear um yea maybe not so much

[Hurricaneman]

For my ideas on this system go to my daily forecast thread

As for current it’s looking like one of those monsoon gyres that takes a few days to form but once it does could take off really quickly so we should watch this one carefully

[AdamFirst]

Both the GFS and Euro are showing something developing in the Northwest Caribbean by Day 5. That much alone is enough to keep us watching here.

[SFLcane]

When Avila says conditions could be favorable look out.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS happy hour.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018100218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_48.png

Not how I want to spend my birthday!! Thanks GFS!

[MetroMike]

GFS happy hour.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018100218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_48.png

Not how I want to spend my birthday!! Thanks GFS!

In the morning it's likely to show something completely different.

[gatorcane]

I’d say these are pretty good upper-level conditions on the approach to South Florida

[TheStormExpert]

GFS happy hour.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018100218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_48.png

Not how I want to spend my birthday!! Thanks GFS!

In the morning it's likely to show something completely different.

Oh I know.

[gatorcane]

Pretty darn good upper-level conditions on the old GFS on its approach to Florida:

[NDG]

Are we sure the FV3-GFS is the new and improved GFS?
But all seriously at least in its short to med range it is in very good agreement with the Euro of development near Jamaica by this weekend, both have been persistent on this solution during the past day or so.

[northjaxpro]

Models can’t be reliable till 3-4 days out

It will also help once we get a true and definitive dominant coc implemented and initialized on the model runs as well.

[caneman]

Some of those runs are a long way out. Seemed to have moved out at least several more days now. Wake me when something has actually got going. It surely will change

[Abdullah]

Another boomerang. This is silly.

https://image.ibb.co/mg9jte/fv3p_mslp_wind_watl_46.png

That's well into Category 3, there.

[Abdullah]

The Eastern Vort seems to be dominating on 500 mB. In 200 mB, not a trace.

[Aric Dunn]

like always dont really look past 48 to 72 hours. even less when there is no well defined llc... and then even more soo when there are these large gyre situations..


sooo essentially all the models are useful for right now is a general idea of something in the western carrib and a general improvement in possible shear. and a general motion through 72 hours .. beyond that its just fun to watch.

[AJC3]

The Eastern Vort seems to be dominating on 500 mB. In 200 mB, not a trace.

You wouldn't want to look anywhere close to that high in the atmosphere when it comes to a tracking development or consolidation of a LLC. Use 850MB...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[northjaxpro]

The Eastern Vort seems to be dominating on 500 mB. In 200 mB, not a trace.

This evening convection is already trying to fire back up again with that mid level spin in the West-Central Caribbean, despite shear.

[gatorcane]

A lot of spin going on:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[LarryWx]

With questions about where any low leading to TC genesis would be located and when it would occur, climo going back to 1851 would be as good a wild guess as any at this very early stage....I.e., a move N to NE over FL. But obviously anything is on the table from a miss off the SE coast to a left hook into the SE US to a track into the Gulf, etc.and of course strength is way, way up in the air due to land interaction, El Niño enhanced shear in places, record warm SSTs for early October all around SE US, and extra unpredictability of strength in Oct.