Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[toad strangler]

Keep in mind all these storms are suppose to happen in a short span of 30-50 days atleast the capeverde season. It’s almost to much to fathom honestly.

84 days.

Na ace generating storms about a month and a half during cape verde season.

ACE is not a prime bullet point of these forecasts. It's secondary after named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. October can be a huge month.
84 days plus

[cycloneye]

84 days.

Na ace generating storms about a month and a half during cape verde season.

ACE is not a prime bullet point of these forecasts. It's secondary after named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. October can be a huge month.
84 days plus

In a year like 2020, you can't discount a record November.

[toad strangler]

Na ace generating storms about a month and a half during cape verde season.

ACE is not a prime bullet point of these forecasts. It's secondary after named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. October can be a huge month.
84 days plus

In a year like 2020, you can't discount a record November.

truth - NOAA did say that these prime conditions are expected to stick around for "several months". Which would be more than two.

[EquusStorm]

Hasn't been the case the last few years but our biggest ACE production of 2014, 2015, and 2016 came in October with cat 4+ storms each year; 2016 generated as much in October as in the rest of the year combined. That said, September was a bit slow in those years. 2005 had a ridiculously active October. 2001, a ridiculously active November.

[al78]

Anything from TSR?

24/10/4
ACE 166

That's not that active actually compared to others. Lower end is definitely possible if dry air sticks around.

There is a reason we are going a bit lower than other agencies. The MDR SSTs are not very warm at the moment, although the trade winds are hugely favourable for high activity. Normally to get a 200+ ACE we need long tracking major hurricanes, which normally happen in years with well above average MDR SST, and if the MDR SST stays only marginally above average through August-September, we don't think there will be that many majors or big ACE generators, which will limit the total ACE. In addition, there looks to be a lull in Atlantic activity for the next week or two.

With the trade wind speed well below average, this will result in reduced evaporational cooling over the tropical Atlantic, so it is possible the MDR SST anomaly will increase substantially over the season as a result of this. If this does happen, we could see a 2017 style explosion in activity near peak season, which would mean our forecast ends up way too low. There is also some uncertainty as to how the MJO will influence intra-seasonal activity. It has been doing odd things so far such as stalling throughout June and July (which may have contributed to the suppression of activity over the NW Pacific).

[al78]

Hasn't been the case the last few years but our biggest ACE production of 2014, 2015, and 2016 came in October with cat 4+ storms each year; 2016 generated as much in October as in the rest of the year combined. That said, September was a bit slow in those years. 2005 had a ridiculously active October. 2001, a ridiculously active November.

2005 just didn't want to give up. It lasted into January 2016. The NHC discussions for Epsilon were hilarious.

https://xkcd.com/1126/

[AnnularCane]

2005 just didn't want to give up. It lasted into January 2016. The NHC discussions for Epsilon were hilarious.

https://xkcd.com/1126/

Talk about a long season!

[CyclonicFury]

It's been a long time since the Atlantic has had a post-season tropical storm. Olga (2007) was the last one, though there was an unnamed subtropical storm in December 2013. There was frequent activity extending into December from 1998-2007.

[FireRat]

ACE is not a prime bullet point of these forecasts. It's secondary after named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. October can be a huge month.
84 days plus

In a year like 2020, you can't discount a record November.

truth - NOAA did say that these prime conditions are expected to stick around for "several months". Which would be more than two.

sorry to quote all of you, but these are important points! October and November could be surprising months this season. We're about on-time for a major hurricane in November, with the last ones being in 2008 and 2016, with Tomas 2010 coming close. Basically Aug 25 all the way to Nov 25 could be prime time this year, IMO.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wow, can we just talk about the fact both CSU/NOAA are basically saying there's a good chance we're going into the Greek alphabet this year? That's nuts.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm surprised NOAA didn’t go with 8-12 hurricanes considering we’ve already seen two, any thoughts?

[TheStormExpert]

It's been a long time since the Atlantic has had a post-season tropical storm. Olga (2007) was the last one, though there was an unnamed subtropical storm in December 2013. There was frequent activity extending into December from 1998-2007.

Yeah December post-season mischief is definitely not as frequent as May pre-season mischief. Though it can never be ruled out like we saw even as late as late-December with Zeta which went into 2006.

[Cpv17]

I'm surprised NOAA didn’t go with 8-12 hurricanes considering we’ve already seen two, any thoughts?

Yeah. I said 9-13 myself.

[Hammy]

I'm surprised NOAA didn’t go with 8-12 hurricanes considering we’ve already seen two, any thoughts?

We only had five after this point last year, so they might be using that as their baseline.

[gulf701]

You can never discount weather. I have experienced Cat. 5 Michael in 2018 and "late Kate" in November,1985, both being out of the "norm". From what I have heard from the experts it is going to be a wild 2020 season. Our community (Gulf County, FL) is still dealing with recovery and these predictions are unnerving. Pray, prepare and stay informed.

[Nimbus]

All we would need is a TUTT or a digging trough to get one of the early Cape Verde monsters recurving and stalling for a couple weeks in the mid Atlantic and that would protect the CONUS for a few weeks. The Cape Verde systems play follow the leader so you can sometimes get two or three fish following the first recurve. Not looking forward to CV low riders getting trapped under the currently forecast ridging at all.

[toad strangler]

All we would need is a TUTT or a digging trough to get one of the early Cape Verde monsters recurving and stalling for a couple weeks in the mid Atlantic and that would protect the CONUS for a few weeks. The Cape Verde systems play follow the leader so you can sometimes get two or three fish following the first recurve. Not looking forward to CV low riders getting trapped under the currently forecast ridging at all.

That's a great point about getting a storm bottled up in the mid Atlantic sub tropics. Escape route trap door city. No need for a trough in that case.

[TheStormExpert]

I know AccuWeather is not really an expert but they’re just revised their 2020 forecast. They expect four more major hurricanes will develop, along with two more direct land impacts.

 https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/1306959888044773379

[chaser1]

I know AccuWeather is not really an expert but they’re just revised their 2020 forecast. They expect four more major hurricanes will develop, along with two more direct land impacts.

https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/1306959888044773379

That's comical. If anyone is interested, I can give them the name of the 2019 Super Bowl Winning team too. Gotta love these late season "oops, let's pad our forecast number prediction". I'll bet they tweak it again on November 20th LOLOLOLOLOLOL

[TheStormExpert]

I know AccuWeather is not really an expert but they’re just revised their 2020 forecast. They expect four more major hurricanes will develop, along with two more direct land impacts.

https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/1306959888044773379

That's comical. If anyone is interested, I can give them the name of the 2019 Super Bowl Winning team too. Gotta love these late season "oops, let's pad our forecast number prediction". I'll bet they tweak it again on November 20th LOLOLOLOLOLOL

Yeah I doubt we see four more major hurricanes. 1-2 seems more reasonable, especially considering Beta can’t even become a hurricane.