Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[TheStormExpert]

Nothing ominous about the 12z GEFS for Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/hwkER43.png

Not ominous but not a complete picnic either as I count at least 4 S/SW FL landfalls.
Also, I see a nontrivial minority that go pretty far west and hang out in or near C America or go into the SW Gulf.

Compared to the ominous 06z GEFS this a decent east shift. Now more inline with the 00z EPS.

[aspen]

Even if Zeta misses Florida, this could hit Cuba hard, either as a hurricane or a major. The Bahamas could get a hurricane as well depending on how much it weakens over Cuba.

[TheStormExpert]

The Euro and EPS usually have been on the left side of things especially with storms hitting the Gulf Coast like Laura, and Delta. So it showing a miss for Florida to the east is a good sign. But of course that’s not good for places such as Jamaica, Cuba, and The Bahamas.

[aspen]

GFS-P is VERY far east this run. Reminds me of its runs for Delta that had a landfall in the western half of Cuba.

[Loveweather12]

No storm has formed yet. Do we have a low?

The Euro and EPS usually have been on the left side of things especially with storms hitting the Gulf Coast like Laura, and Delta. So it showing a miss for Florida to the east is a good sign. But of course that’s not good for places such as Jamaica, Cuba, and The Bahamas.

[Jr0d]

Funny how 1 model run on a storm that has not only not developed, but still technically a phantom storm because there is not even an area of distutbed weather to track, folks are concluding Florida is safe because the models have shifted east.

There will be much more windshield wipping, even after something develops. Any significant impacts still are a week++ away.

Obviously it is not something to be overly concerned with, but also not something to ignore. It could end up.being something major(less likely) or another lopsided sheared late season storm.

...since everyone is throwing out analogs already, I am just going to name a random late season storm.that defied general rules, Lenny of 1999!

[TheStormExpert]

No storm has formed yet. Do we have a low?

The Euro and EPS usually have been on the left side of things especially with storms hitting the Gulf Coast like Laura, and Delta. So it showing a miss for Florida to the east is a good sign. But of course that’s not good for places such as Jamaica, Cuba, and The Bahamas.

No, but I’m just pointing out something I’ve noticed with the Euro/EPS most of the season. In fact unlike the GFS it has a bias of overdoing ridges so, but let’s see what the 12z Euro/EPS show as they’re currently running.

[SouthFLTropics]

Funny how 1 model run on a storm that has not only not developed, but still technically a phantom storm because there is not even an area of distutbed weather to track, folks are concluding Florida is safe because the models have shifted east.

There will be much more windshield wipping, even after something develops. Any significant impacts still are a week++ away.

Obviously it is not something to be overly concerned with, but also not something to ignore. It could end up.being something major(less likely) or another lopsided sheared late season storm.

...since everyone is throwing out analogs already, I am just going to name a random late season storm.that defied general rules, Lenny of 1999!

I'll throw another random storm in that hat that defied general rules... Mitch 1998. Originally was supposed to go to the GOM and instead dive bombed Honduras.

[TheStormExpert]

At this point I can continue to enjoy the rest of my birthday! Wake me up if things get ominous again!

[SouthFLTropics]

At this point I can continue to enjoy the rest of my birthday! Wake me up if things get ominous again!

[JRD]

A phase diagram of the future disturbance:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 2/112.html
It shows it as having a very slight warm core to truly neutral core, moderately symmetric, and a deep warm core, though near the shallow cold core quadrant. Don't trust it fully, as the phase diagram model and track model are guaranteed to shift.

[SFLcane]

Instead of days of our lives S2K should be..

“ As the models turn ”

Relax folks models will continue to flip flop for a few more days until something forms. GEFS can and I bet will shift westward again. Some of these posts are predictable depending whether some models go east or west.

[SFLcane]

12z para looks like trouble for Florida unless it banks west again into the gulf Lol.

[gatorcane]

Anybody notice how the Euro has been “quietly” showing pretty much the same thing run after run while the GFS models flip and flop? One problem though is that the Euro has been awful with genesis this year:

I say quite because it hardly is getting mentioned for this system.

[Wx_Warrior]

So EURO into louisiana than east to Florida? Cool.

[SFLcane]

Anybody notice how the Euro has been “quietly” showing pretty much the same thing run after run while the GFS models flip and flop? One problem though is that the Euro has been awful with genesis this year:

I say quite because it hardly is getting mentioned for this system.

https://i.postimg.cc/4dr7875j/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh48-192.gif

Same can be said for European ensembles.

[tomatkins]

GFS-P much further east through 180 hrs. Doesnt even reach Florida's longitude

[underthwx]

12z para looks like trouble for Florida unless it banks west again into the gulf Lol.

Once the predicted low forms, it should get better for the models to be more consistent?

[SFLcane]

[gfsperpendicular]