Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[ElectricStorm]

Looking at the 850mb vort, it kind of looks to me like the main vort goes straight W into CA but then merges with another vort that somehow appears S of Jamaica before entering the gulf and exploding into a major. Seems pretty fishy to me.

If something does manage to get in the gulf though it'll be dangerous but I really can't trust the GFS right now considering how bad its been

[SoupBone]

Looking at the 850mb vort, it kind of looks to me like the main vort goes straight W into CA but then merges with another vort that somehow appears S of Jamaica before entering the gulf and exploding into a major. Seems pretty fishy to me.

If something does manage to get in the gulf though it'll be dangerous but I really can't trust the GFS right now considering how bad its been

Yeah that's what wxman was talking about earlier. Regardless, it shows a TexMex major on this run.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Near the Windward Islands:
A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is
expected to move westward at about 15 mph during the next several
days, and environmental conditions could become more conducive for
slow development when it moves across the central and western
Caribbean Sea by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[wxman57]

Looking at the 850mb vort, it kind of looks to me like the main vort goes straight W into CA but then merges with another vort that somehow appears S of Jamaica before entering the gulf and exploding into a major. Seems pretty fishy to me.

If something does manage to get in the gulf though it'll be dangerous but I really can't trust the GFS right now considering how bad its been

Yeah that's what wxman was talking about earlier. Regardless, it shows a TexMex major on this run.

I still don't believe the GFS for a second. Modelcane.

[SoupBone]

Looking at the 850mb vort, it kind of looks to me like the main vort goes straight W into CA but then merges with another vort that somehow appears S of Jamaica before entering the gulf and exploding into a major. Seems pretty fishy to me.

If something does manage to get in the gulf though it'll be dangerous but I really can't trust the GFS right now considering how bad its been

Yeah that's what wxman was talking about earlier. Regardless, it shows a TexMex major on this run.

I still don't believe the GFS for a second. Modelcane.

I can clearly see the two vortices in the GEFS that you were talking about. Never seen anything like it and run after run.

[Cpv17]

Yeah that's what wxman was talking about earlier. Regardless, it shows a TexMex major on this run.

I still don't believe the GFS for a second. Modelcane.

I can clearly see the two vortices in the GEFS that you were talking about. Never seen anything like it and run after run.

Just competing swirls. Which one becomes the dominant one will determine its fate. The models don’t have anything to really initialize off of rn.

[NDG]

Super dry air wins the battle again over the Lesser Antilles.

[NDG]

Looking at the 850mb vort, it kind of looks to me like the main vort goes straight W into CA but then merges with another vort that somehow appears S of Jamaica before entering the gulf and exploding into a major. Seems pretty fishy to me.

If something does manage to get in the gulf though it'll be dangerous but I really can't trust the GFS right now considering how bad its been

Yeah that's what wxman was talking about earlier. Regardless, it shows a TexMex major on this run.

I still don't believe the GFS for a second. Modelcane.

After getting burned so many times by the GFS, I am with you on this one.
And when only around 10-15 out of 50 of the Euro ensembles show development out of it, that's not a very high chance.

[Keldeo1997]

GFS going crazy with this again

[skyline385]

GFS going crazy with this again

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/ ... nknown.png

lol look at the size of that chonker, it’s going to bring half the Gulf inland along with it


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[Keldeo1997]

Down to 933MB

[Iceresistance]

Down to 933MB https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/752166055501365319/1012580973940064317/unknown.png

Goodness! That's the strongest run yet!

[skyline385]

935mb at landfall




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[Keldeo1997]

This would be horrible.

[skyline385]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/752166055501365319/1012581912172310629/unknown.png

This would be horrible.

Seeing how GFS is the only one so far going nuts over it i don’t think Texas needs to worry at the moment


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[sma10]

OK then. Well that takes care of Galveston.

[ElectricStorm]

Cat 4 into TX that's not ideal... However it still seems like the GFS wants to send the main vorticity into CA before merging it with another vort that appears just W of Jamaica, which still seems unlikely. On the other hand the yellow area from NHC is ever so slightly starting to point more towards the gulf so we'll see. I still don't trust the GFS with this though, but I'll be paying close attention to it anyway. Overall not too worried about it right now though

[Iceresistance]

OK then. Well that takes care of Galveston.

And Houston, this would be a multi BILLION dollar disaster that is even worse to Harvey in terms of intensity, it's more comparable to Carla in 1961.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

935mb at landfall

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220826/69613bda57273ed793ca2313289ae70e.jpg


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Houston/Galveston and possibly the Golden Triangle’s worst nightmare.

[Cpv17]

OK then. Well that takes care of Galveston.

And Houston, this would be a multi BILLION dollar disaster that is even worse to Harvey in terms of intensity, it's more comparable to Carla in 1961.

Carla came in at Port O’Connor. My parents were young at the time and tell me stories about Carla all the time. Truly a fascinating but terrifying experience. I think we need to see more ensemble support from this to be more concerned. Right now I’m not too worried about it.