Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[cinlfla]

I just looked on radar and it looks to be moving more North has anyone looked at the radar that was posted? as far as I'm concerned Ernesto will be moving off of Cuba a lot faster then originally thought.

Heres the URL someone posted earleir for it

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

[cpdaman]

NHC forecat has this near north coast of cuba at 2pm monday but then the track seems to be about 310 degree heading which takes it until tuesday 2 am to get over water


what is the steering influence that bring this thing further west and are there signs of this yet or will this happen after ernesto is over water. PRO METS?

[boca]

If Ernesto is basically moving north or west of due north what makes the NHC think that it will be a Florida threat because it would have to head due NW for this to be a threat. The Bahamas is a different story their it will be a threat. The models have been shifting eastward every six hours and by the 11am advisory the models could shift into the Bahamas lessening a threat to S FL. I'm not putting my guard down but I'm starting to rest more easily now as long as it stays on a norhtherly track.

[gtsmith]

I agree on spotting the N motion over the last two frames or so...but I think the people in the know are betting on the high to the NE to arrest the Northerly motion and kick Ernie more west. It definitely is following it's history of a stair-stepping pattern but overall to the NW... We still don't know for certain how that ULL to it's north will affect it. Either way, I will be in full hurricane-preparedness today. My wife just called she said the lines at the gas stations are pretty long. That's here in WPB.

[Sanibel]

Cuban Radar:

I can't tell if that is a tilted image of the center vortex or reforming center?

It is possible that a weak system like Ernesto is seeking water and jumping north. I hope it isn't doing that, but remember we are talking a poof of a TS now.

It could also be way down by the SW edge and on the surface. If this is where it is, it looks like a crash and burn over Cuba.

Watching now for jumping reformation up to the north coast.

[gatorcane]

If Ernesto is basically moving north or west of due north what makes the NHC think that it will be a Florida threat because it would have to head due NW for this to be a threat. The Bahamas is a different story their it will be a threat. The models have been shifting eastward every six hours and by the 11am advisory the models could shift into the Bahamas lessening a threat to S FL. I'm not putting my guard down but I'm starting to rest more easily now as long as it stays on a norhtherly track.

Hey Boca you have those hurricane shutters ready? I thought you said not until Sept 23rd.

[cpdaman]

south fl dont let guard down this will probably be downgraded to a depression by evening

however

if this thing takes a shorter path over cuba this will reintensify rather quickly IMO

[HURAKAN]

He's popping, even over Cuba.

[ronjon]

The ridge is progged to strengthen tomorrow as it shifts from south FL to north-central FL. This will likely steer Ernie W-NW or NW until the influence of the trough coming in from the NW in 2 days. The track is pretty dicey right now because a shift 50 miles either way would make a big difference to the potential impacts to the state.

From TBW AFD:

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
CWFA AS ERNESTO APPROACHES.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

You can see his aim . . .Notice the W flow around 25N. Also notice the N flow off the Fl. coast @ 80w.

I do not see a ULL to Ernesto's NW. I see a ULL NE and a TUTT to his N. Can someone post a pic?

[cpdaman]

boca i think the week steering flow which allowed ernesto to basically drift/ move at 7-8 mph for the last day is forecast to be replaced by a bit of a ridge which may be responsible for it's increased forward speed and possible movement a little more west (or at least more of a true NW)

[Sanibel]

Always watch storms that pop over land

[wxwatcher91]

FORECAST COMPLICATED
BY TRACK OF REMNANTS OF ERNESTO. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE NC COAST THU-FRI

I don't think they will get the "remnants" of Ernesto. Doesn't the NHC have Ernesto coming up the coast as a 75kt hurricane?

[boca]

Cpdaman any info on the high to show that its building and moving into central Florida?

[cpdaman]

From TBW AFD:

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
CWFA AS ERNESTO APPROACHES

if u mean already building i have no idea, just saying it is the reason the NHC is calling for it to move more true northwest 315 degees than 325

[BUD]

FORECAST COMPLICATED
BY TRACK OF REMNANTS OF ERNESTO. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE NC COAST THU-FRI

I don't think they will get the "remnants" of Ernesto. Doesn't the NHC have Ernesto coming up the coast as a 75kt hurricane?

Yes and a repeat of Bonnie which I think was 1998.

[boca]

Whats the terrain over the area where Ernesto is? I've heard the highest peak is about 6900ft.

[gatorcane]

JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

[kenl01]

Down to 45mph per latest advisory...............

[jimvb]

Your graphic shows Ernesto just about to hit Cuba's eastern portion. The interesting thing here is that there is absolutely nothing about this storm in the Cuban media; at least, not in http://www.granma.cu . Do they know what's coming, or is this an instance of controlled media censorship? In any case, it seems that Cuba is going to feel some effects from the storm.