TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

[bobbisboy]

Thunder,

Thanks for posting this. I didn't want to be flamed for saying so earlier but the NHC is seemingly off on the plot. 11 AM will require a change on the plot if not the track. Won't matter for SE US but might for NS and Canada. JMO

[Evil Jeremy]

the models are agreeing less and less now.

[storms in NC]

Thunder,

Thanks for posting this. I didn't want to be flamed for saying so earlier but the NHC is seemingly off on the plot. 11 AM will require a change on the plot if not the track. Won't matter for SE US but might for NS and Canada. JMO

JMHO I think the whole east coast needs to keep a look out on her. There may be a chance that the troff will not pick it up. If she slows or the center is farter south just to many ifs in this right now. I think it will turn but not when they say so. It will be later and more west than it is now. The troff is moving at a fast pace and the TSF is like not really moving that much. This going to be a long ride for us who are tracking.

[cinlfla]

I'm not sure if anyone else has noticed this or not but if you look at the visable loop the front convection on the sw side you know that little ball of cv all by istself, well if you look it looks like it gets shoved south and then comes back up, is that shear doing this. reminds me of a yo yo LOL


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[tgenius]

I would say the whole east coast minus South FL.. its almost too far north right now to begin with (yes I know storms can go South a bit, but with the size of Florence I would question that possibility)

[StormWarning1]

The closer you zoom in on Florence the more pathetic it looks. The latest models tend to back of on intensity a little also.
I have no idea where the LLC is but the entire system seems to be pretty much headed Northwest.

[superfly]

The closer you zoom in on Florence the more pathetic it looks. The latest models tend to back of on intensity a little also.
I have no idea where the LLC is but the entire system seems to be pretty much headed Northwest.

Right smack dab in the middle.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Is there anyway that the LLC could reform under the convection? Cause if that does happen, then Florence might completely miss the trough.

[N2FSU]

Here's a good US water vapor loop:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=7
Looks like a definite recurve for Flo.

[Meso]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2 ... /slp21.png

Lol...umm.. wow... That system is HUGE! It's like half the US...

[N2FSU]

Interesting discussion from the TLH NWS:(approaching trough slower?)

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
GFS/ECMWF BOTH ARE IN AGREEMENT OF CONTINUING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MORE SIGNIFICANT WX
MAKERS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GFS DOES ADVERTISE A SERIES
OF WEAK IMPULSES LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT FEEL AT THIS POINT THAT THIS ENERGY...IF IT
EXISTS AT ALL WILL REMAIN GENERALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE GULF RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE ALL
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT OF RIDGING CONTINUING TO EVOLVE AND DEVELOP
DOWN THE EAST COAST TO THE NORTHEASTERN GOMEX. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA UNDER GENERAL CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THE MAIN SOURCE OF RAIN. TOWARD THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK THE GFS SHOWS ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY DIGGING ANOTHER EAST COAST
TROUGH WHILE PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE
ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR SCENARIO BUT IS ABOUT 24-36 HOURS BEHIND THE
GFS. AT THIS POINT DO TO THE GFS HAVING A HISTORY OF BEING TO FAST
WITH ITS SYNOPTIC FEATURES BEYOND DAY FIVE...WILL RUN THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO REFLECT THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERAL ZONAL FLOW STILL IN CONTROL.

[jusforsean]

Here's a good US water vapor loop:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=7
Looks like a definite recurve for Flo.

question is it the deep red/orange front moving down that will recurve her? If so, do we know when it will arrive, will it be in time and it seems like its thicker on the right and the thinner left the part heading twords fla thins and almost seperates or breaks off is that possible does anyone see this?

[wxman57]

I would place the center near 19.3N/53.5W, about 80 miles or so south of the NHC's track. Doesn't mean any increased threat to the east U.S. Coast, just that it'll start from a more southern point.

[Nimbus]

If the models are correct that digging trough that is bringing nice dry air as far east as NOLA will go stationary before it gets to Florida.

Florence does not look like she has consolidated much since yesterday. There may still be competing vortices and at the very least the circulation has been too broad to spin up.

[alan1961]

What is everyone's opinion on the chances of a landfall in Nova Scotia and what do think the intensity would be like when it reached here. Remember a few years back Juan visited us up here, and the waters are warmer now than they were back then.

Its got a 50-50 chance of hitting nova scotia blue jay..more of a chance than say the carolinas or new england..it is due to recurve first north westward then more northerly as it goes round the periphery of the Bermuda/Azores high..any shift slightly west from the Bermuda when Florence is on her northerly turn would i'm sure put more of the NE US in the danger zone but its early yet..even the pros are in wait and see mode.

[Nimbus]

Very favorable ventilation developing between the two ULLs can be seen on the water vapor imagery. The 2006 storm jynx continues and Florence just doesn't seem to want to spin up.

[Thunder44]

I don't understand why it can't get better organzied. The ULL seems to have moved far enough to the west, to have less of an impact. There's actually an upper-level high building over the top of it now, and shear is down to 5kts to 10kts:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

My guess is that it will evenutally get better organized later today and consolidate a center closer to the thunderstorms.

[wxman57]

I don't understand why it can't get better organzied. The ULL seems to have moved far enough to the west, to have less of an impact. There's actually an upper-level high building over the top of it now, and shear is down to 5kts to 10kts:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

My guess it that will evenutally get better organized later today and consolidate a center closer to the thunderstorms.

No convergence into the center. Can't develop convection over the center if air is circling it at a radial distance of 70-80nm.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 3_06as.png

Ok so according to that image taken just a very short time ago would indicate a center at 19N and 53W?

[mike815]

ok so the center really is down by 19 right now and this looks horrible this morning