Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

#341 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 6:49 pm

Kerry04 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:It will be very interesting to see the 00z global models run that will have the information from the NOAA survelliance plane that flew today.

when do the runs come out?

Around Midnight EDT they start to roll the run.

kevin · #342 Postby **kevin** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 6:51 pm

The title is confusing.

#343 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 6:55 pm

kevin wrote:The title is confusing.

The title divided which models are going more west and which models are going north.I dont see anything confusing.But that is academic because the title has changed to the original one.

stormchazer · #344 Postby **stormchazer** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 6:56 pm

Kerry04 wrote:So now we have 4 models going west? (GFS,UKMET,NOGAPS,NAM)

In the longer range, they all seem to show another turn to the NW or N after that W motion-- reflecting the influence of the next trough. They do show a western component but then, recurvature.

#345 Postby **fci** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 6:57 pm

sma10 wrote:
Yes, and when a storm shows a threat to land the NHC does send crews in for long shifts. But there's hardly any reason to send a crew into Helene at this point.

Yes, as much as we are wrestling with conflicting trends in reliable and unreliable models (sometimes I wonder if people deem certain models as reliable and unreliable based on what they WANT the models to say or THINK they should say) :-)

............ Helene is currently no threat to any land area. So, when the storm evolves (IF it does) into a threat then it seems to me to be the time to send in a crew. Now, all it does is help settle some arguments on intensity etc... which when all is said and done, is rather meaningless at THIS time.

My $.02

caneman · #346 Postby **caneman** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:03 pm

sma10 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:It's 4 to 2 in terms of west vs north. Yesterday it was 1 to 5. Hmm.

4 to 2? Are you counting the NAM as one of the four?? Even meteorologists don't use the NAM for the tropics.

Also, you can count the Canadian (CMC), for what it's worth, as one of the recurvers, so it's actually 3 showing north.

Considering that none have been reliable this year. I would go with trend. Right now trend is West. Lets see what happens with 00Z's.

#347 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:09 pm

17/2345 UTC 21.3N 49.0W T5.5/5.5 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD sat estimates are of Major Cane,117 kts.Look at chart below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

#348 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:11 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 SEP 2006 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 21:18:45 N Lon : 49:01:25 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 946.3mb/117.4kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 41 km

Center Temp : +16.7C Cloud Region Temp : -63.6C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

WeatherTracker · #349 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:17/2345 UTC 21.3N 49.0W T5.5/5.5 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD sat estimates are of Major Cane,117 kts.Look at chart below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

most likely 120mph at 11pm....

#350 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:17/2345 UTC 21.3N 49.0W T5.5/5.5 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD sat estimates are of Major Cane,117 kts.Look at chart below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

You mean 117mph. 117kt = 136mph (Category 4) and around T6.1

SWFLA_CANE · #351 Postby **SWFLA_CANE** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:12 pm

On the IR loop it appears as if it is going just west of due north.

sma10 · #352 Postby **sma10** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:12 pm

caneman wrote:Considering that none have been reliable this year. I would go with trend. Right now trend is West. Lets see what happens with 00Z's.

If none have been reliable, why would you go with the trend? Would you really want to follow the trend of something unreliable?

#353 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:17/2345 UTC 21.3N 49.0W T5.5/5.5 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD sat estimates are of Major Cane,117 kts.Look at chart below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

You mean 117mph. 117kt = 136mph (Category 4) and around T6.1

oops yes,102 kts,117 mph.

#354 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:14 pm

The eye is becoming more circular indicatingg "hell girl" is becoming better organized!!!

#355 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:15 pm

I'm likely to estimate her at 110 kt or 115 kt at the next update, but I will wait for more to come out.

WeatherTracker · #356 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:16 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'm likely to estimate her at 110 kt or 115 kt at the next update, but I will wait for more to come out.

we could see a surprise by 5am monday....

#357 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:17 pm

WeatherTracker wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'm likely to estimate her at 110 kt or 115 kt at the next update, but I will wait for more to come out.

we could see a surprise by 5am monday....

Yep - I think we will now have a Category 4 by then. Outside chance of a Category 5 by Tuesday.

Website · #358 Postby **Brent** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:19 pm

WOW, looks extremely impressive. Major at 11 IMO.

WindRunner · #359 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:19 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
WeatherTracker wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'm likely to estimate her at 110 kt or 115 kt at the next update, but I will wait for more to come out.

we could see a surprise by 5am monday....

Yep - I think we will now have a Category 4 by then. Outside chance of a Category 5 by Tuesday.

Waaaaaaaaaay outside at this point.

Website · #360 Postby **Brent** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:19 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
WeatherTracker wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'm likely to estimate her at 110 kt or 115 kt at the next update, but I will wait for more to come out.

we could see a surprise by 5am monday....

Yep - I think we will now have a Category 4 by then. Outside chance of a Category 5 by Tuesday.

OK, let's not get crazy. :roll:

Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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