Gonu held at 80 kts with an interesting new track from the JTWC. Landfall as a minimal 35-kt dissipating cyclone far further inland. However based on this track Dubai could experience some 34-kt winds.
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 59.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (GONU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 75 TO 90 KNOTS WITH A 55-KNOT DECREASE
IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 052149Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOW A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS BUT A CONTINUED EROSION OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE 36V
GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A WELL-DEVELOPED
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE. THIS IMAGE
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL STORM POSITION AND MOTION. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORE-
CAST. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS RAPID WEAKENING TREND
DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, LAND INTERACTION, AND A SHARP
DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TC 02A CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE
ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AFTER TAU 24 SINCE STEERING WILL SHIFT
TO A LOWER LEVEL AS THE TC WEAKENS UNDER 60 KNOTS AND THIS
LOW-LEVEL STEERING COULD PRODUCE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD
ASH SHARIQAH. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT TC 02A WILL BECOME
A VERY WEAK TC WITH 30-40 KNOT INTENSITY AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO
EXTREMELY DRY AIR. THEREFORE, REGARDLESS OF THE 48-72 HOUR
TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT TC. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS HAVE STABILIZED AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND RAPID WEAKENING TREND. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AIDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//
