Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

[wjs3]

What I find interesting about the central atlantic this morning is that if you look at the visible loop of the central atlantic right now, what the heck is that blob of dark water about 2 degrees to the south. Notice the early morning sun reflecting off it. Looks almost like an oil spill

I think I can guess...but before I do, can you provide a link or image?

[HUC]

Tis sun reflexion was splendid!!!i save some images. That's the beauty of Mother Nature................

[Cyclone1]

Tis sun reflexion was splendid!!!i save some images. That's the beauty of Mother Nature................

Can you post the images?

[cheezyWXguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[wjs3]

...Nice catch on this.

The reason it looks like an oil slick is, well...it's slick--as in slick calm, no wind. So the sun reflection is off of it like a mirror, not like the slightly dappled sun reflection we normally get. And our eye catches it.

Take a look at this quickscat pass--a touch old, but make the point--and you can see a large area of no wind right where the "slick" is.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

Cool, huh?

WJS3

[x-y-no]

...Nice catch on this.

The reason it looks like an oil slick is, well...it's slick--as in slick calm, no wind. So the sun reflection is off of it like a mirror, not like the slightly dappled sun reflection we normally get. And our eye catches it.

Take a look at this quickscat pass--a touch old, but make the point--and you can see a large area of no wind right where the "slick" is.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

Cool, huh?

WJS3

Not an uncommon occurrence. That's why sailors referred to the ITCZ as "the doldrums."

[wjs3]

...Nice catch on this.

The reason it looks like an oil slick is, well...it's slick--as in slick calm, no wind. So the sun reflection is off of it like a mirror, not like the slightly dappled sun reflection we normally get. And our eye catches it.

Take a look at this quickscat pass--a touch old, but make the point--and you can see a large area of no wind right where the "slick" is.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

Cool, huh?

WJS3

Not an uncommon occurrence. That's why sailors referred to the ITCZ as "the doldrums."

Yup, I know (I sail and so am familiar with what ocean racers go through!). Just cool to see it from space. Also a great example of how scatterometry works--deriving windspeed from the "ripples" and waves.

[HUC]

Well,cyclone1,i am always unable to post any images,links,or photos on this board;certainly due to my poor english,and no one in my knowledge can used the codes to post!!! Sorry,one day i hope i will success....

[Cyclone1]

Well,cyclone1,i am always unable to post any images,links,or photos on this board;certainly due to my poor english,and no one in my knowledge can used the codes to post!!! Sorry,one day i hope i will success....

Ok, that's fine, I saw the loop.

[Cyclone1]

CMC brings it into the Caribbean. O_o

[Steve H.]

OK, thanks. Initially I thought it was just a blemish on one image, but its on the whole stream. Didn't know their resolution was that good

[Hyperstorm]

None of these tropical waves seem to have developed at all over the past few days. The tropical wave near 45W that I thought had potential for development has fizzled out and lost its surface low pressure system. The culprit appears to have been its close interaction with the ITCZ, which pulled the moisture flow away from it.

Right now there seems to be a tale of two environments in the E. Atlantic. In one hand, we have a moist, unstable atmosphere within the ITCZ for over a thousand miles across. On the other hand, we have a stable layer of stratocumulus dry air north of it. This contrast has prevented any development from taking place and right now, I don't see any changes in the environment. It appears that the E. Atlantic will have to wait a while.

La Nina = late starts, explosive endings...

[la wave]

The LSU ESL graphics continue to show a great deal of very dry air across the Atlantic Basin. As long as this air is in place, I doubt that there will be any tropical system genesis occurring.

[TheRingo]

the central atlantic sst's are running a little cool and the dry air reflects this. Maybe by late August this will pickup.

[Normandy]

There is a pretty well defined surface low near 10N 45W....its pretty broad however. Convection is firing south of it....if any development were to occur within the next 2 days it would be here.

[CourierPR]

Normandy, I agree. This area appears to be getting a little better organized.

[Nimbus]

This broad circulation is so far south there is not much chance of it becoming a fish.

NHC will probably wait on declaring it a depression till it gets west of 50W. By then it should have a clearer LLC. Looks like the wave might converge near 11N and track WNW.

[Normandy]

My Evening Thoughts:

The low is clearly evident and is now producing convection pretty close to its center (Convection is just S of it). Showers are forming N and NE of the circulation center as well. its movement (before vis went down) appeared to be W with a hint of S, possibly because convection was drawing the low center southward. Shear looks fine as it appears to be in the beginning stages of detaching itself from the ITCZ.

I actually think it has a shot, but it might be a bit slow to occur. It has some dry air issues it as to deal with, and if it forms too far South it might of some land interaction problems down the road with SA. In the short term the diurnal convective bursts should help the low sustain itself, and tom it should have a better shot at consolidating.

Wave as zero chance of becoming a fish like Nimbus states.

[Bane]

it has a chance, but it better gain some altitude.

[hial2]

Are we talking about 9 and 44???


http://www.tropmet.com/satellite/java/catl_ir_loop.htm