2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Deshaunrob17]

The lack of activity should not have come as a surprise this year because when you look back at history 3rd year La Niñas coincide with weak Atlantic hurricane seasons . The question now is why? Does 3rd year La Niña contribute to extra warm sub tropics?Does it cause more activity in Epac?

[TheDreamTraveler]

The lack of activity should not have come as a surprise this year because when you look back at history 3rd year La Niñas coincide with weak Atlantic hurricane seasons . The question now is why? Does 3rd year La Niña contribute to extra warm sub tropics?Does it cause more activity in Epac?

All of the northern hemisphere basins are abnormally quiet right now. It's also not as simple as just a third year La Nina otherwise you wouldn't have had some of the best meteorologists and organizations forecasting an active season this year since we already knew this triple dip La Nina was coming. There's also not enough data to verify if a 3rd year La Nina is responsible since it's only happened 2 times before. I'm definitely not ruling out it being a potential part of it. We just can't say for certain yet if it is.

[Category5Kaiju]

The lack of activity should not have come as a surprise this year because when you look back at history 3rd year La Niñas coincide with weak Atlantic hurricane seasons . The question now is why? Does 3rd year La Niña contribute to extra warm sub tropics?Does it cause more activity in Epac?

All of the northern hemisphere basins are abnormally quiet right now. It's also not as simple as just a third year La Nina otherwise you wouldn't have had some of the best meteorologists and organizations forecasting an active season this year since we already knew this triple dip La Nina was coming. There's also not enough data to verify if a 3rd year La Nina is responsible since it's only happened 2 times before. I'm definitely not ruling out it being a potential part of it. We just can't say for certain yet if it is

I'm personally very curious to see what happens later this year (like in December) when the Southern Hemisphere basins are supposed to wake up again. If nothing really happens there, then I'll be confident to think that this is not just an Atlantic issue but rather a worldwide issue.

[weeniepatrol]

[Category5Kaiju]

:lol:

https://i.imgur.com/kWeLtdA.png

If you just showed me that without context, I would have been quick to say that that screams hyperactive season

[Iceresistance]

:lol:

https://i.imgur.com/kWeLtdA.png

If you just showed me that without context, I would have been quick to say that that screams hyperactive season

What does that show? I can't see Imgur very well, I would like to see where that came from so I can see it myself.

[LarryWx]

The lack of activity should not have come as a surprise this year because when you look back at history 3rd year La Niñas coincide with weak Atlantic hurricane seasons . The question now is why? Does 3rd year La Niña contribute to extra warm sub tropics?Does it cause more activity in Epac?

All of the northern hemisphere basins are abnormally quiet right now. It's also not as simple as just a third year La Nina otherwise you wouldn't have had some of the best meteorologists and organizations forecasting an active season this year since we already knew this triple dip La Nina was coming. There's also not enough data to verify if a 3rd year La Nina is responsible since it's only happened 2 times before. I'm definitely not ruling out it being a potential part of it. We just can't say for certain yet if it is.

1. I agree that it isn't that simple and that it usually is not as simple as one thing due to the complexity of the globe. And not all 3rd year LNs have been quiet.

2. There have been 8 third year cold ENSO seasons since the late 1800s: 2000, 1985, 1975, 1956, 1917, 1910, 1894, and 1874. Most have been quieter than the prior year, but even those weren't all quiet. Example: 1894 still had ACE of 135 even though it was way quieter than 1893's 231. 2000 was way quieter than 1999 but it still had an ACE of 119.

3. 1985 was actually one of the worst for the US on record despite ACE only 88. ACE can be deceiving.

4. I had never heard anyone say anything about 3rd year LN til just 1.5 months ago (Kingarabian the first??), when several members here said something about it possibly being a negative factor for activity. I had never seen any outside orgs saying anything about it. So, even IF it truly is a useful stat. significant indicator, it may have been an unknown factor to these mets and thus none of them would have known to comment on it in advance.

[LarryWx]

If we take today's models at face value, there would be no TS to form through at least 9/20. With the current MDR SAL as widespread as anytime this season (it goes as far south as 9N!), it is believable that there'd be nothing new through 9/20. But nobody knows for sure as model consensus can be wrong.

When was the last time there were no TS+ 9/10-20? Answer: if we go by UTC it was 1966 barely. If going by AST, it was 1939 although 1952 was close.

[WiscoWx02]

One thing I can think of that might favor October countering my early points, is that the subtropics are going to start cooling down dramatically now that fall is on approach. This may lead to less competition between the deep tropics and subtropics. Looking at current SSTA's the Caribbean Sea is especially warmer than normal. Something to think about going forward, but the big question is will it be too little too late?

[Category5Kaiju]

One thing I can think of that might favor October countering my early points, is that the subtropics are going to start cooling down dramatically now that fall is on approach. This may lead to less competition between the deep tropics and subtropics. Looking at current SSTA's the Caribbean Sea is especially warmer than normal. Something to think about going forward, but the big question is will it be too little too late?

I don’t think it will be too late. While many people seem to (and rightfully) associate August and September as the “big bad months,” time and time again, we’ve also seen October produce some very powerful and nasty systems. You can really thank the climatological shift to the W. Atlantic, where UOHC and ssts are among the highest in any given year, for that. Also I am curious to see how much Earl dents the subtropical warmth, because given its large size in particular, I’m wondering if even a temporary dent in those ridiculously warm subtropical waters would perhaps allow a pocket or so of favorable conditions to open in the tropics

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1568718126900195329

[TheDreamTraveler]

The lack of activity should not have come as a surprise this year because when you look back at history 3rd year La Niñas coincide with weak Atlantic hurricane seasons . The question now is why? Does 3rd year La Niña contribute to extra warm sub tropics?Does it cause more activity in Epac?

All of the northern hemisphere basins are abnormally quiet right now. It's also not as simple as just a third year La Nina otherwise you wouldn't have had some of the best meteorologists and organizations forecasting an active season this year since we already knew this triple dip La Nina was coming. There's also not enough data to verify if a 3rd year La Nina is responsible since it's only happened 2 times before. I'm definitely not ruling out it being a potential part of it. We just can't say for certain yet if it is.

1. I agree that it isn't that simple and that it usually is not as simple as one thing due to the complexity of the globe. And not all 3rd year LNs have been quiet.

2. There have been 8 third year cold ENSO seasons since the late 1800s: 2000, 1985, 1975, 1956, 1917, 1910, 1894, and 1874. Most have been quieter than the prior year, but even those weren't all quiet. Example: 1894 still had ACE of 135 even though it was way quieter than 1893's 231. 2000 was way quieter than 1999 but it still had an ACE of 119.

3. 1985 was actually one of the worst for the US on record despite ACE only 88. ACE can be deceiving.

4. I had never heard anyone say anything about 3rd year LN til just 1.5 months ago (Kingarabian the first??), when several members here said something about it possibly being a negative factor for activity. I had never seen any outside orgs saying anything about it. So, even IF it truly is a useful stat. significant indicator, it may have been an unknown factor to these mets and thus none of them would have known to comment on it in advance.

I had never heard anything about it either until recently too. I think it's people trying to look for a reason for why it's so inactive and just 'assuming' it's the triple dip La Nina that's the culprit without any actual data to back it up

[Category5Kaiju]

One thing's for sure: in future seasons, whether it's next year or 2024 or 2028, the term "wave-breaking", whenever used, will strike tremendous fear in those who want to track Cat 4 fish storm parades

[Hammy]

All of the northern hemisphere basins are abnormally quiet right now. It's also not as simple as just a third year La Nina otherwise you wouldn't have had some of the best meteorologists and organizations forecasting an active season this year since we already knew this triple dip La Nina was coming. There's also not enough data to verify if a 3rd year La Nina is responsible since it's only happened 2 times before. I'm definitely not ruling out it being a potential part of it. We just can't say for certain yet if it is.

1. I agree that it isn't that simple and that it usually is not as simple as one thing due to the complexity of the globe. And not all 3rd year LNs have been quiet.

2. There have been 8 third year cold ENSO seasons since the late 1800s: 2000, 1985, 1975, 1956, 1917, 1910, 1894, and 1874. Most have been quieter than the prior year, but even those weren't all quiet. Example: 1894 still had ACE of 135 even though it was way quieter than 1893's 231. 2000 was way quieter than 1999 but it still had an ACE of 119.

3. 1985 was actually one of the worst for the US on record despite ACE only 88. ACE can be deceiving.

4. I had never heard anyone say anything about 3rd year LN til just 1.5 months ago (Kingarabian the first??), when several members here said something about it possibly being a negative factor for activity. I had never seen any outside orgs saying anything about it. So, even IF it truly is a useful stat. significant indicator, it may have been an unknown factor to these mets and thus none of them would have known to comment on it in advance.

I had never heard anything about it either until recently too. I think it's people trying to look for a reason for why it's so inactive and just 'assuming' it's the triple dip La Nina that's the culprit without any actual data to back it up

There was a fair amount of discussion in May and June about third year Ninas being less active than first and second, though somewhat anecdotal with a small sample size

[NotSparta]

One thing's for sure: in future seasons, whether it's next year or 2024 or 2028, the term "wave-breaking", whenever used, will strike tremendous fear in those who want to track Cat 4 fish storm parades

Definitely not looking forward to it being brought up ad nauseam by people who don't know what it is lol

[mixedDanilo.E]

:lol:

https://i.imgur.com/kWeLtdA.png

Suck a shame it ain’t being used for storms cuz we got a hell lot of energy out there…

[storminabox]

A fascinating season fellas

[storminabox]

Kinda think it’s volcano induced wave breaking that’s causing the inactive season but could be a coincidence

[storminabox]

It’s good to have these surprising. Keeps us humble

[Nimbus]

It is peak season but maybe not for Texas, August has had more land falling storms there.
And the GFS spent weeks this season trying to develop a Caribbean low latitude runner before finally giving up.
October is sometimes a bad month for Florida and the eastern gulf.