2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

The GEFS will be key to determining if this run of the GFS was a fluke or a real trend.

[toad strangler]

CMC into CA

[LarryWx]

Again, folks are all agog looking at one model run and treating it as THE definitive run.

Who is treating the 12Z GFS as THE definitive run? Most of the deterministic model runs are discussed in this thread as that is why this thread exists.

[aspen]

CMC into CA

The CMC has a different formation scenario than the GFS. Instead of the gyre concentrating into a TC, it catches the remnant vorticity of 93L, rotates it into the Caribbean, and develops there. That means this could develop anywhere from just south of Jamaica to just off of the Yucatán.

[SFLcane]

The GEFS will be key to determining if this run of the GFS was a fluke or a real trend.

Quite the signal on the 12z GEFS.

[boca]

The GEFS will be key to determining if this run of the GFS was a fluke or a real trend.

Quite the signal on the 12z GEFS.

Quite a strong signal but for 3 or 4 runs in a row the GFS has this going east of Florida in the Bahamas based on the trough pulling this up I’m starting to feel a little better that this might pass us by like all the other storms have done this year so far.

[TheStormExpert]

The GEFS will be key to determining if this run of the GFS was a fluke or a real trend.

Quite the signal on the 12z GEFS.

Yep, I see that. It'll be interesting to see what the operational 18z run shows now.

[aspen]

Today does not seem to be a good day for the models. Both the GFS-Para are having issues; the 06z GFS-Para failed to load beyond 72hrs, and the 12z ICON only loaded halfway.

[AutoPenalti]

The GEFS will be key to determining if this run of the GFS was a fluke or a real trend.

Quite the signal on the 12z GEFS.

Quite a strong signal but for 3 or 4 runs in a row the GFS has this going east of Florida in the Bahamas based on the trough pulling this up I’m starting to feel a little better that this might pass us by like all the other storms have done this year so far.

Yikes.

[cheezyWXguy]

Honestly you’re nuts if you believe those absurd Cat.5 intensities the GFS shows with systems all the time. I’ll never forget the sub-900mb Irma it was forecasting to slam into SE Florida for several runs. Fortunately that wasn’t the case.

I do remember that. During that year the gfs was way over the top with intense storms but I think upgrades since then have tapered that back quite a bit. 893mb was over the top, but Irma easily could have been a sub 915mb storm if it missed Cuba and lanfalled in SFL

[SFLcane]

Still loading...

[boca]

Still loading...

https://i.postimg.cc/ZKQ9GHjY/1872-AEF7-3-F26-4-E00-B45-A-A753-E9-AEE1-B1.jpg

That map looks like a 2 year old drew all over that omg.

[TheStormExpert]

The GEFS will be key to determining if this run of the GFS was a fluke or a real trend.

Quite the signal on the 12z GEFS.

Quite a strong signal but for 3 or 4 runs in a row the GFS has this going east of Florida in the Bahamas based on the trough pulling this up I’m starting to feel a little better that this might pass us by like all the other storms have done this year so far.

I'd feel better if the signal wasn't still 10 days out. Wait until its in the 3-5 day range before sounding the all clear.

[TheStormExpert]

Still two camps at day 12.

Would be nice if the Euro would get itself together for once this season and show development.

[toad strangler]

Still loading...

https://i.postimg.cc/ZKQ9GHjY/1872-AEF7-3-F26-4-E00-B45-A-A753-E9-AEE1-B1.jpg

Woooo baby can you imagine a member like that one into the Tampa area verifying?

[toad strangler]

Quite the signal on the 12z GEFS.

Quite a strong signal but for 3 or 4 runs in a row the GFS has this going east of Florida in the Bahamas based on the trough pulling this up I’m starting to feel a little better that this might pass us by like all the other storms have done this year so far.

I'd feel better if the signal wasn't still 10 days out. Wait until its in the 3-5 day range before sounding the all clear.

3-5 days out to sound an all clear? Come on broski ....

[TheStormExpert]

Still loading...

https://i.postimg.cc/ZKQ9GHjY/1872-AEF7-3-F26-4-E00-B45-A-A753-E9-AEE1-B1.jpg

Woooo baby can you imagine a member like that one into the Tampa area verifying?

That's Ft. Myers.

[TheStormExpert]

Quite a strong signal but for 3 or 4 runs in a row the GFS has this going east of Florida in the Bahamas based on the trough pulling this up I’m starting to feel a little better that this might pass us by like all the other storms have done this year so far.

I'd feel better if the signal wasn't still 10 days out. Wait until its in the 3-5 day range before sounding the all clear.

3-5 days out to sound an all clear? Come on broski ....

So what, you want us to wait until its a day out to sound the all clear!? Sometimes I don't get you.

[toad strangler]

I'd feel better if the signal wasn't still 10 days out. Wait until its in the 3-5 day range before sounding the all clear.

3-5 days out to sound an all clear? Come on broski ....

So what, you want us to wait until its a day out to sound the all clear!? Sometimes I don't get you.

haha I don't get you ALL the time. 3-5 days is crazy talk.

[aspen]

Quite the signal on the 12z GEFS.

Quite a strong signal but for 3 or 4 runs in a row the GFS has this going east of Florida in the Bahamas based on the trough pulling this up I’m starting to feel a little better that this might pass us by like all the other storms have done this year so far.

I'd feel better if the signal wasn't still 10 days out. Wait until its in the 3-5 day range before sounding the all clear.

The precursor gyre is now only 5 days out. Depending on how quickly it coalesces, we should have a named TC between the 20th and 23rd.