Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[ROCK]

whats it doing...just chilling in the gulf? just sitting there at the end of the run

misses the trof....so we wait for the high to build on top of it and push it NW into Texas....of course the way the pattern is another trof could come by and shunt it NNE into NGOM or FL....

[Ivanhater]

Posted this last night..but this run is almost spot on to what Opal did

[Florida1118]

whats it doing...just chilling in the gulf? just sitting there at the end of the run

misses the trof....so we wait for the high to build on top of it and push it NW into Texas....of course the way the pattern is another trof could come by and shunt it NNE into NGOM or FL....

It better not! I love Oct. (I seriously must have spent over $3,000 on Halloween Decorations lol) but I hate being in Fl. in Oct. All you here is Trough=Florida.

[South Texas Storms]

yeah rock i guess it just depends on what happens after the trough passes. will a ridge build in to the north of it and send it west/northwest? or will another trough dig down and scoop it up north/northeast? that remains to be seen way in the future.

[Ivanhater]

whats it doing...just chilling in the gulf? just sitting there at the end of the run

misses the trof....so we wait for the high to build on top of it and push it NW into Texas....of course the way the pattern is another trof could come by and shunt it NNE into NGOM or FL....

Yeah..another one is digging in the Northern Plains...looong way to go and who cares where the final landfall is other than for entertainment

Main point is the GFS once again develops..that's gotta be a record..right or wrong!

[ROCK]

interesting that for 4 straight days it sits in the BOC....that aint going to happen....

record develop runs? maybe so...it was kinda iffy there in the 200+hrs

[Ivanhater]

interesting that for 4 straight days it sits in the BOC....that aint going to happen....

record develop runs? maybe so...it was kinda iffy there in the 200+hrs

The ensembles of the Euro and Canadian have been screaming for development in the NW Caribbean..it makes sense for it to "gel" there.

[Stormcenter]

Agree.

interesting that for 4 straight days it sits in the BOC....that aint going to happen....

record develop runs? maybe so...it was kinda iffy there in the 200+hrs

[South Texas Storms]

agreed rock it isnt going to sit there that long. ive noticed that the gfs keeps pushing it back development. there is still not a landfall at the end of the run, other than the yucatan and that is still 16 days away. this could a crazy fun one to track.

[Vortex]

These types of storms that form over the SW carribean as a result of a spark from the east can be some of the most amazing storms to watch develop. Often there powerful and its a classic set-up with strong ridging along the east coast, lowering pressures over the western carribean which tpically sets up a decent gradient along the east coast of florida for about a week...I know it well as we head in to october..Those of us in south florida aside from the rare CV storm get most of our significant storms in exactly the fashion indicated by the GFS....just an observation in no way am i calling this by any means yet

[Vortex]

interesting that for 4 straight days it sits in the BOC....that aint going to happen....

record develop runs? maybe so...it was kinda iffy there in the 200+hrs

The ensembles of the Euro and Canadian have been screaming for development in the NW Caribbean..it makes sense for it to "gel" there.

I absolutely agree ivan and I think the other models will begin to latch on with stronger reflections

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian has a storm in the Gulf at 144 hours

A different system though

[Vortex]

00z nogaps at h120 has the energy abit further north over the leewards but heading west....run still updating




H+120



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

00z Canadian has a storm in the Gulf at 144 hours

A different system though

interesting...notice in the far right you can see the energy over the eastern carribean

[South Texas Storms]

hmm is the cmc spinning up another phantom storm?

[Vortex]

The 12z cmc showed something coming off SA and moving NW with a reflection near jamaica and continuing towards western cuba...maybe thats just an extension

[Vortex]

now im really interested in the long range cmc and euro....i think well start seeing a consensus over the next few days of development in the sw carribean in 7-10 days by the big 3....

[Vortex]

00z Nogaps brings the energy towards the sw carribean similar to the gfs in about 7-8 days....




https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[blp]

The below loop confirms that PGI46L does make it across and is part of the development in the W. Carribean system.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010091618&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

[South Texas Storms]

hey ivan can you post the long range cmc when you get it please?