2019 WPAC Season

[1900hurricane]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1156437756387549184

Removed ending string, S2K doesn't like that for tweet links

Thanks! I figured that was likely the cause, but I was in a hurry this morning and didn't get a chance to fix it.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has mucher higher MJO amplification over the MC compared to other models.

[Tailspin]

Interesting a 'active' monsoon could break the new GFS so easy.
EC..Ukmet .....................................................GFS.

[dexterlabio]

I dont know what happened with the GFS, it looks like it's trying to snatch HWRF's thing, which is to blow up every disturbance into a monster. While ECMWF on the other hand is just not interested with anything, not just here in the WPAC but also with that little system over the Atlantic. GFS really is rooting for hyperactivity.

[mrbagyo]

I dont know what happened with the GFS, it looks like it's trying to snatch HWRF's thing, which is to blow up every disturbance into a monster. While ECMWF on the other hand is just not interested with anything, not just here in the WPAC but also with that little system over the Atlantic. GFS really is rooting for hyperactivity.

Did Haiyan short-circuited most of the major weather models?
They've been acting weird since 2014

[euro6208]

During Week-2, conditions are expected to be less favorable for Western Hemisphere tropical cyclone formation, while additional tropical cyclogenesis is possible east of the Philippines.

[euro6208]

GFS continues with the SCS storm but alot weaker than past runs. EURO also latches on it a few days ago. Looks like whatever develops out of it will be affected by the large monsoon system in the P.I sea.

[euro6208]

Models continues to spit out storms after storms.

[euro6208]

95W Thread

The phantom storm that does a fujiwhara with the P.I system is up.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

EURO still has the SCS system but weaker in 12Z compared to 00Z.

[euro6208]

GFS was very optimistic on the SCS system but lost it the past 2 runs due to the large monster typhoon (TD 10W) making a beeline to Taiwan.

[euro6208]

GFS has even more activity mid to long range.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1157287797339774976




Looks like the typhoon dry spell will continue as Francisco is no longer forecast to become one.

[euro6208]

Looking like August will be quite active. Already starting off with a bang.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1156932595734609920

[1900hurricane]

Might need to tag a South China Sea invest soon.

[euro6208]

Favorable conditions to remain throughout the month.

[euro6208]

Might need to tag a South China Sea invest soon.

Yeah days ago it had incredible support from the models. Now literally zilch. Lekima will swallow this one up.

[al78]

Is it against the law to have a typhoon in the NW Pacific at the moment? Two storms develpoed which were initially forecast to become typhoons, now JTWC doesn't forecast them developing beyond strong tropical storms. What has suppressed NW Pacific typhoon activity this year since February? It almost reminds me of 2010 when global TC activity seemed to almost shut down about this time of year. Admittedly it is possible things could switch into a high activity state a bit later in the year, which happened in the NW Pacific in one recent year.

[dexterlabio]

Is it against the law to have a typhoon in the NW Pacific at the moment? Two storms develpoed which were initially forecast to become typhoons, now JTWC doesn't forecast them developing beyond strong tropical storms. What has suppressed NW Pacific typhoon activity this year since February? It almost reminds me of 2010 when global TC activity seemed to almost shut down about this time of year. Admittedly it is possible things could switch into a high activity state a bit later in the year, which happened in the NW Pacific in one recent year.

Francisco already turned into one, and I think there is a good chance Lekima would follow, then 11W/future Krosa.