2019 WPAC Season

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1900hurricane
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#361 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:42 pm

NotSparta wrote:


Removed ending string, S2K doesn't like that for tweet links

Thanks! I figured that was likely the cause, but I was in a hurry this morning and didn't get a chance to fix it.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#362 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:47 pm

GFS has mucher higher MJO amplification over the MC compared to other models.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#363 Postby Tailspin » Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:41 pm

Interesting a 'active' monsoon could break the new GFS so easy.
EC..Ukmet .....................................................GFS.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#364 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:21 am

I dont know what happened with the GFS, it looks like it's trying to snatch HWRF's thing, which is to blow up every disturbance into a monster. :lol: While ECMWF on the other hand is just not interested with anything, not just here in the WPAC but also with that little system over the Atlantic. GFS really is rooting for hyperactivity.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#365 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:35 pm

dexterlabio wrote:I dont know what happened with the GFS, it looks like it's trying to snatch HWRF's thing, which is to blow up every disturbance into a monster. :lol: While ECMWF on the other hand is just not interested with anything, not just here in the WPAC but also with that little system over the Atlantic. GFS really is rooting for hyperactivity.


Did Haiyan short-circuited most of the major weather models?
They've been acting weird since 2014
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#366 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:29 am

Image


During Week-2, conditions are expected to be less favorable for Western Hemisphere tropical cyclone formation, while additional tropical cyclogenesis is possible east of the Philippines.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#367 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:03 am

GFS continues with the SCS storm but alot weaker than past runs. EURO also latches on it a few days ago. Looks like whatever develops out of it will be affected by the large monsoon system in the P.I sea.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#368 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:05 am

Models continues to spit out storms after storms.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#369 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:38 pm

95W Thread

The phantom storm that does a fujiwhara with the P.I system is up.
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#370 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:58 pm

Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#371 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:16 am

EURO still has the SCS system but weaker in 12Z compared to 00Z.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#372 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:35 am

GFS was very optimistic on the SCS system but lost it the past 2 runs due to the large monster typhoon (TD 10W) making a beeline to Taiwan.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#373 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:36 am

GFS has even more activity mid to long range.

Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#374 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:41 am

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1157287797339774976




Looks like the typhoon dry spell will continue as Francisco is no longer forecast to become one.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#375 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:51 am

Looking like August will be quite active. Already starting off with a bang.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1156932595734609920


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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#376 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:19 pm

Might need to tag a South China Sea invest soon.

Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#377 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:00 pm

Image

Favorable conditions to remain throughout the month.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#378 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:02 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Might need to tag a South China Sea invest soon.



Yeah days ago it had incredible support from the models. Now literally zilch. Lekima will swallow this one up.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#379 Postby al78 » Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:54 am

Is it against the law to have a typhoon in the NW Pacific at the moment? Two storms develpoed which were initially forecast to become typhoons, now JTWC doesn't forecast them developing beyond strong tropical storms. What has suppressed NW Pacific typhoon activity this year since February? It almost reminds me of 2010 when global TC activity seemed to almost shut down about this time of year. Admittedly it is possible things could switch into a high activity state a bit later in the year, which happened in the NW Pacific in one recent year.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#380 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:35 pm

al78 wrote:Is it against the law to have a typhoon in the NW Pacific at the moment? Two storms develpoed which were initially forecast to become typhoons, now JTWC doesn't forecast them developing beyond strong tropical storms. What has suppressed NW Pacific typhoon activity this year since February? It almost reminds me of 2010 when global TC activity seemed to almost shut down about this time of year. Admittedly it is possible things could switch into a high activity state a bit later in the year, which happened in the NW Pacific in one recent year.


Francisco already turned into one, and I think there is a good chance Lekima would follow, then 11W/future Krosa.
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