Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)

[AutoPenalti]

The legacy still has happy hour at 18z.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 03N-19N,
moving W around 15 kt. A 1011 mb low is embedded on the wave axis
near 10N31W. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the low.
Looking ahead, upper- level winds are forecast to gradually
become more conducive for further development as the wave moves
westward, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend
several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

[SFLcane]

Nice 70% now..

[cycloneye]

CODE RED 70%

A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness
and shower activity several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for significant development of this disturbance during
the next couple of days while it moves westward at about 15 mph
across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week
several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Kazmit]

I don't think I've ever seen 0% for 48 hours and 70% for 5 days. Long range forecasting confidence is increasing.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 96L is up