Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[Bluehawk]

All models are in good agreement on a low forming on the cold front in the SW Gulf this weekend. Even the GFS has come to its senses after yesterday's 18Z run. Models indicate a double low structure - one in the central Gulf and another in the BoC Sunday/Monday. Wind offshore Louisiana and across much of the northern Gulf NE-ENE 25-30 mph. It doesn't look like the low will be tropical, but I wouldn't rule out the NHC calling it a subtropical depression or storm. Bottom line is that no matter how its officially classified, the impacts will be the same. Windy, rough conditions across the Gulf through early next week and some rain for south Florida by Tuesday.

Very grateful for all the insight found here and for all the extra work of love that you, other professionals, and kind weather-enthusiasts put into just offering the best kind of help that can be offered in advance: forewarning. I have read the info from NHC as well, and what now appears on the weather apps, but the prognosis seems a bit unclear. Would you mind expounding a bit on the ETA of the rains for the West Coast of Florida?

[jlauderdal]

Still looks like only a frontal low. NE wind offshore 25-35 mph Sun-Tue. No wind inland. Some rain for south FL.

Just some rain for South Florida.

Even non-named systems can have big impacts!

That bullseye is by the airport which had 20+ last year in a no name setup. Long range precip maps are fine for the pattern but certainly plenty of time for big changes. The HRRR sniffed out that 20+ event, at that range there wasnt much to be done in advance.

[eastcoastFL]

Still looks like only a frontal low. NE wind offshore 25-35 mph Sun-Tue. No wind inland. Some rain for south FL.

Just some rain for South Florida.

Even non-named systems can have big impacts!

https://i.postimg.cc/wvSXgnmF/nnn.png

https://i.postimg.cc/RVx7859Z/nnnn.png

That bullseye is by the airport which had 20+ last year in a no name setup. Long range precip maps are fine for the pattern but certainly plenty of time for big changes. The HRRR sniffed out that 20+ event, at that range there wasnt much to be done in advance.

Does that say 17 inches of rain?? Id rather have a fast moving cat 2..

[redingtonbeach]

Still looks like only a frontal low. NE wind offshore 25-35 mph Sun-Tue. No wind inland. Some rain for south FL.

Just some rain for South Florida.

Even non-named systems can have big impacts!

https://i.postimg.cc/wvSXgnmF/nnn.png


https://i.postimg.cc/RVx7859Z/nnnn.png

That’s 10 days worth of rainfall. Not likely. Plus, South Florida Water Management is only calling for around 3” over the next 7 days. Obviously that could change, and they could also be wrong, but not typically off that significantly. Either the two models are picking up another South Florida landfall, or they are seeing ghosts.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/sfwmd-forecast

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO down to 30%.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions could
support some gradual development of this system over the Gulf of
Mexico this weekend while the system drifts eastward. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico
during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula
by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[wxman57]

Note that 30% is not the chance of a low developing - that's closer to 100%. The 30% is the chance that NHC might call it a STD, STS, TD, or TS. The Gulf will be a quite hostile environment over the next week.

[Nimbus]

Convection blossoming further south in the Bay of Campeche.
If the low forms that far south the trough may not pick it up before it reaches TD status.
May be back to 40% at 11 AM?

[caneman]

Am I imagining things or is that area in the E. Pac crossing over into the BOC?
How long is shear forecast to stick around for?

[toad strangler]

The 6z GFS gives central FL a foot of rain through the entire run. We shall see about that but whatever this becomes in the GUlf will kick start a very wet period for the central and southern peninsula. Ironically could end with the start of dry season.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a surface trough. A broad area of low
pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico late this
weekend or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical
development could be limited by the system's potential interaction
with a frontal boundary. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days
and over portions of the Florida Peninsula next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Stormlover70]

Note that 30% is not the chance of a low developing - that's closer to 100%. The 30% is the chance that NHC might call it a STD, STS, TD, or TS. The Gulf will be a quite hostile environment over the next week.

will it affect my area?

[Stormlover70]

The 6z GFS gives central FL a foot of rain through the entire run. We shall see about that but whatever this becomes in the GUlf will kick start a very wet period for the central and southern peninsula. Ironically could end with the start of dry season.

link? Ty

[cycloneye]

Edited the title of thread to reflect the words from NHC at the 8 AM TWO.

[wxman57]

Note that 30% is not the chance of a low developing - that's closer to 100%. The 30% is the chance that NHC might call it a STD, STS, TD, or TS. The Gulf will be a quite hostile environment over the next week.

will it affect my area?

You could get a couple inches of rain over the next week. Wind up to 10-15 mph. Offshore wind will be about 20-30 mph.

[Bigtenfan]

Still looks like only a frontal low. NE wind offshore 25-35 mph Sun-Tue. No wind inland. Some rain for south FL.

Just some rain for South Florida.

Even non-named systems can have big impacts!

https://i.postimg.cc/wvSXgnmF/nnn.png


https://i.postimg.cc/RVx7859Z/nnnn.png

That’s 10 days worth of rainfall. Not likely. Plus, South Florida Water Management is only calling for around 3” over the next 7 days. Obviously that could change, and they could also be wrong, but not typically off that significantly. Either the two models are picking up another South Florida landfall, or they are seeing ghosts.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/sfwmd-forecast

I was about to point that out. The 20 inches at FLL happened in a few hours, not over a 10 day period. That one was personal to me as my wife was on one of the last flights to get out FLL that afternoon before it shut down for days. She said at the time that it was a very rough ascent.

[Stormlover70]

Note that 30% is not the chance of a low developing - that's closer to 100%. The 30% is the chance that NHC might call it a STD, STS, TD, or TS. The Gulf will be a quite hostile environment over the next week.

will it affect my area?

You could get a couple inches of rain over the next week. Wind up to 10-15 mph. Offshore wind will be about 20-30 mph.

you nailed helene for my area. It was crazy surge came from the Gulf all the way across 19. First time in a hundred years. Btw the Gulf is 1 mile away.....

[toad strangler]

Note that 30% is not the chance of a low developing - that's closer to 100%. The 30% is the chance that NHC might call it a STD, STS, TD, or TS. The Gulf will be a quite hostile environment over the next week.

will it affect my area?

You could get a couple inches of rain over the next week. Wind up to 10-15 mph. Offshore wind will be about 20-30 mph.

6z GFS give New Port Richey much more than that over the next 168. I take it you don't put much stock in global model QPF? FWIW Euro & CMC is much less impressed.

[toad strangler]

Here is the WPC QPF through 168
New Port Richey at 7.00 verbatim

[Emmett_Brown]

Looking at the sat loop, you can see some broad rotation over the BOC. Models are not as keen on this disturbance as before, but nonetheless I think this is Invest worthy.

[toad strangler]