Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[truballer#1]

[Stratosphere747]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/2345 UTC 15.7N 80.1W T3.5/3.5 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


17/1745 UTC 15.7N 79.6W T3.5/3.5 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


The first reading of SSD dvorak sat estimate is the latest.As you can see the afternoon position was 15.7n-79.6w but tonight it is at 15.7n-80.1w so it's starting to move WESTWARD

That's only a estimate, correct?

Yes as no plane is there now.

Just noticed that you mentioned that it is starting to move westward. Although it does look as if some movement is taking place, that would be a fairly good shift of movement from the 7pm advisory.

[truballer#1]

the only thing I want from this cane is to come the east coast and clash into very cold air and be all snow! that would be awesome. lots of snow!

[CalmBeforeStorm]

one possibility is that if/when Wilma approaches FL to make landfall, she will be on a weakening trend. As some have noted, the Gulf is definitely cooling down. But more importantly, the steering mechanism is going to be a strong front with a bunch of cold, dry air behind it. Depending on the interaction of wilma and that front, she could entrain dry and cold air as she hooks to the NE or ENE, therefore weakening some. Or at least, that's my educated guess. I see only a very slim chance of her making a FL landfall at greater than Cat 2 strength. Moreover, she'll be accelerating as she approaches so the chance of a massive, slow-moving, flooding storm is diminished.

Agreed, which is why I feel the Keys are at greatest rosk of a major. If Wilma is just passing the western tip of Cuba and then hangs a right and accelerates it will be on top of the Keys before much weakening could occur.

[otowntiger]

I think that an equally big question is how strong will she be when she makes landfall. Of course where is important, but let's keep this in perspective. If she strengthens as forecast but is dimenishing as she approches land, how big of deal could she be?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The northern Gulf of Mexico is only around 26c-27c which is not warm for a major. Take a look....

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 9atsst.png

You thought Ivan fall apart try moving this up there now.

[Noah]

when is the next update on nhc or models ect?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM WILMA (AL242005) ON 20051018 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051018 0000 051018 1200 051019 0000 051019 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 79.9W 16.3N 80.6W 17.2N 81.6W 18.3N 82.6W
BAMM 15.7N 79.9W 16.6N 80.7W 17.5N 81.8W 18.5N 82.8W
A98E 15.7N 79.9W 16.1N 80.0W 16.9N 80.6W 17.8N 81.1W
LBAR 15.7N 79.9W 16.4N 80.8W 17.8N 82.0W 19.5N 83.2W
SHIP 50KTS 61KTS 72KTS 82KTS
DSHP 50KTS 61KTS 72KTS 82KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051020 0000 051021 0000 051022 0000 051023 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.4N 83.4W 22.1N 83.9W 25.1N 83.3W 29.9N 78.6W
BAMM 19.5N 83.6W 21.9N 84.5W 23.7N 84.5W 25.6N 80.7W
A98E 18.8N 81.4W 21.1N 82.3W 23.5N 82.6W 27.2N 79.4W
LBAR 21.3N 83.7W 26.0N 82.2W 31.1N 74.9W 33.4N 57.9W
SHIP 90KTS 101KTS 101KTS 90KTS
DSHP 90KTS 101KTS 101KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.7N LONCUR = 79.9W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 16.4N LONM12 = 79.8W DIRM12 = 198DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 79.6W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 988MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM



The 00:00z BAM model guidance.

[Thunder44]

They initialized at 50kts and 988mb pressure.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

60 mph now!!!

[truballer#1]

The northern Gulf of Mexico is only around 26c-27c which is not warm for a major. Take a look....

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 9atsst.png

You thought Ivan fall apart try moving this up there now.

but I dont think wilma is going to go that far north in gulf

[cycloneye]

They initialized at 50kts and 998mb pressure.

You meant 988 right?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That would be 988 millibars!

[Thunder44]

They initialized at 50kts and 998mb pressure.

You meant 988 right?

Typo

[cycloneye]

The 00:00z Graphic of the BAM models the GFDL and UKMET.

[N2FSU]

The 00Z BAM models show Wilma moving in a NW direction almost from the start of their runs. This thing is just now beginning to move west, if not still slightly south of west. Wouldn't that shift everything more west and make the NE turn further up the west coast of FL? I just don't see it heading NW anytime soon like the models initially show.

[wxmann_91]

I wonder what the FSU Superensemble is forecasting. During both Katrina and Rita SHIPS was forecasting a marginal 3 and the Superensemble was forecasting a strong 4, and well you know what happened.

[StormFury]

that's because you live in the panhandle. j/k

[truballer#1]

shifted right again

[cjrciadt]

The GFDl has me in the crosshairs taking major notice now.