Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

[JPmia]

New Eurpoean hits FL and Blasts Carolinas

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Does that model suggest the strength of the storm?

[kevin]

The center is not in the area of convection that you are seeing between Cuba and Hispanola. IR is worthless when visible is accessible (light outside).

[KFDM Meteorologist]

New Eurpoean hits FL and Blasts Carolinas

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Does that model suggest the strength of the storm?

No, not really but it sure looks ugly for the Carolina's after FL if it's right.

[brunota2003]

EmeraldCoast1,

My new motto with hurricanes: NEVER SAY NEVER.

That has to be the smartest thing said yet!

If you go back and look, that is exactly what I said on Saturday, almost everyone is like "no way it will hit Florida" I posted the cone and stated that Florida should watch it because they were just outside the cone...I guess Ernesto didnt like me falling in line with almost everyone else as he is now pointing his guns in my direction and the models keep blasting me away (well...figuretively speaking of course)

[rnbaida]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2006


...Center of Ernesto nearing the northern coast of Cuba...threat of
heavy rains continues...tropical storm warnings issued for portions
of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas...
At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning is being issued
for Florida from Vero Beach southward on the East Coast...from
south of Chokoloskee southward on the West Coast...for Lake
Okeechobee...and for all of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the
Dry Tortugas. These areas also remain under a Hurricane Watch.

At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...a tropical storm watch is being issued from
Chokoloskee northward to Englewood on the Florida West Coast.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from north of Vero Beach to New
Smyrna Beach on the Florida East Coast.

At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for Andros Island...the Berry Islands... the
biminis and...Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas.
These islands also remain under a Hurricane Watch.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Ragged Island and
great Exuma in the central Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...Granma...Holguin...Las Tunas... and
Camaguey.

Interests elsewhere in the central and northwestern Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 21.3 north...longitude 76.9 west. This
position is just inland over eastern Cuba...about 60 miles...
100 km...east of Camaguey.
Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track the center should emerge into the Atlantic north of
Cuba tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast after the center moves back over
water.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are possible over
Haiti. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts up
to 10 inches are expected over eastern Cuba. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches are expected over
central Cuba. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with
possible isolated amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible over the
Bahamas. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible over
portions of eastern and southern Florida and the Keys through
Wednesday.
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...21.3 N...76.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[SCMedic]

http://tinyurl.com/nxlyu

GFDL has it coming ashore in McClellanville, SC area with 100kt winds..

<a href="http://imageshack.us"><img src="http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/227/203553wsmjm8.gif" border="0" alt="Image Hosted by ImageShack.us" /></a>

And then at 5pm...The plot thickens for Charleston....

[fci]

Jenmrk:
I agree with you.

NEVER say NEVER!

If a model shows it then it warrants consideration.
Right now I don't see a model that shows the Panhandle getting this but I, like you; would keep watching until it is a certainty that it can't.

I kept watching even when the GFS was "on crack" as many were saying and when I defended a member for posting the GFS Florida question when it looked wacky.

Bot so "wacky" or "GFS on crack" anymore.
Just shows you

NEVER say NEVER

Good post!

[cycloneye]

[Evil Jeremy]

it is nearly off Cuba now and not expected to become a hurricane right now, although it still remains a possibillity.

[Wx_Warrior]

Who said the latest NHC wouldnt be further east? Well, it is.

[deltadog03]

well, not so fast my friend......sorry corso...from 2pm to 5pm its moved .5N and .8W

[curtadams]

The structure has been falling apart all day.

You posted a pic of, essentially, high-altitude clouds. That's not the structure - the structure is the mid and low circs which generate the high clouds. It is, sometimes, a product of a tropical structure. That big blob of convection is not directly arising from a low-level or even mid-level center - it's not spinning the low clouds and recon didn't see a big wind warp. Most likely it's a feeder band for Ernie moving N (since E of the circ), hitting the mountains of Cuba, and being forced up. Right now there's a substantial MLC spinning low clouds across half of Cuba, very roughly near 77W 21.5N. It's not necessarily a stacked tropical system but it couldn't exist if there were one anywhere else. It is close to the NHC prediction and to the weak center possible from the wind warp on recon.

[Patrick99]

From the way this storm has held together, and judging from its current form, it seem to me that *if* this bad boy got itself out over water, it could intensify pretty rapidly. It doesn't look to me as if it's going to do that, though.

If it rides the Cuban coast just inland, it won't have that much time over water when it eventually turns north into FL. If it somehow found the water *now*, all bets would be off, I think.

[chadtm80]

Not really.. Comes in basicaly the same place

The main change is they no longer have it as a cane over Florida

[Thunder44]

It's not forecasted to become a hurricane before hitting Fl, but when before it hits SC.

[Brent]

It's not forecasted to become a hurricane before hitting Fl, but when before it hits SC.

That's entirely possible.

[fci]

Maintains it as a Tropical Storm for Florida , NO HURRICANE!!!!

[BlowMeAway]

Based on the NHC track, it looks like Miami barely gets smacked.... They get off again with a pretty wimpy storm. And it looks like Charleston gets hit pretty hard with anything from Cat-2 up to another Hugo-level storm depending on how much it can get its act together over the water.

[Stormcenter]

I guess I should cancel my trip to Disneyworld on Wednesday.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yet a hurricane before landfall on FL is still a possibility.