2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3621 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:29 pm

SFLcane wrote:18z GFS stronger and further west... :eek:


Yep, looks like the 18z may be ready to party.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3622 Postby toad strangler » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:31 pm

SFLcane wrote:18z GFS stronger and further west... :eek:


Not a big shift W given it's 200 plus hours out but W it is.....
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3623 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:32 pm

Looks like it will still slide east of the peninsula on this run but it will definitely be closer.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3624 Postby blp » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:39 pm

gatorcane wrote:If the Euro is correct with the subtropical TC that might be enough to shear anything in the WCAR keeping it weak.

Interesting wrinkle which may throw a wrench in the GFS monster Caribbean storm idea:

https://i.postimg.cc/d0gQcTp9/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh120-240-2.gif


Agree, that subtropical TC is a wild card here. It could impart shear or it could impact how it moves up further north out of the Carribean. Keeping the weakness longer in the ridge. 18z so far bring the STC further west and draws the system closer to Florida as well. Very interesting evolution here.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3625 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:40 pm

GFS definitely alarming in how consistent it's being.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3626 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:40 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Looks like it will still slide east of the peninsula on this run but it will definitely be closer.


Ouch! Northern quadrant into SFL...
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3627 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:43 pm

SFLcane wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Looks like it will still slide east of the peninsula on this run but it will definitely be closer.


Ouch! Northern quadrant into SFL...


Let me correct my previous statement... MUCH CLOSER!!! :eek:
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3628 Postby edu2703 » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:45 pm

Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3629 Postby toad strangler » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:46 pm

Ensembles should be fun
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3630 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:48 pm

:eek: :eek:

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3631 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:49 pm


Ouch... The GFS has been consistent in terms of showing a strong storm :eek:
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3632 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:04 pm

Gulf Stream rider... That'll get the board hopping again. Bring on the ensembles.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3633 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:Down to 5 days.

https://i.imgur.com/OHA1cIP.png


Indeed Luis! This has been a remarkable continuous run for the GFS. Extremely persistent
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3634 Postby LarryWx » Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:22 pm

For those complaining that some posters keep taking the latest GFS as verbatim what will actually happen, I say that hardly anyone does that. We normally highlight the most recent runs for latest discussions, whatever they show. New runs are normally newsworthy. That doesn’t at all mean we’re saying it will be right or even close to right as it is impossible for anyone to have any idea.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3635 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:23 pm

GEFS has been relentless also.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3636 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:49 pm

Ok this is getting insane! :eek:

Image

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3637 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:52 pm

I see that the 18z GFS is back to a major in the Caribbean. As a bonus and probably just to taunt us, it has yet another Caribbean TC at the very end of its run.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3638 Postby toad strangler » Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:53 pm

18z GEFS = GOOD LORD :eek:
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3639 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:54 pm

Ok folks, we have a thread for the SW Caribbean area so all the model runs can be posted there.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121485&p=2870041#p2870041
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3640 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:07 pm

The CMC has been very consistent with a weak low-rider in the MDR making it to the Caribbean. It comes from a wave that will emerge off of Africa on Monday, and nears the Leeward Islands next weekend. Anything that gets into the Caribbean this year needs to be watched.
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