2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[edu2703]

GFS is hinting a storm developing near Leeward islands. 06z GFS today is the strongest run of this storm and also develops sooner.

[TheStormExpert]

I think most of us know better than to buy into anything the GFS shows in its long range after what just happened.

Of course that seems to be a Western Caribbean bias but still.

[aspen]

*looks at the ECar system from the last few GFS runs and the ECar major in the 12z run*

Nope, I’m not doing this again.

[crownweather]

*looks at the ECar system from the last few GFS runs and the ECar major in the 12z run*

Nope, I’m not doing this again.

Ditto!! Fool me once, shame on the guidance, fool me twice and thrice, shame on me.

[ElectricStorm]

*looks at the ECar system from the last few GFS runs and the ECar major in the 12z run*

Nope, I’m not doing this again.

Yeah not buying that run lol

[chris_fit]

I still cant believe it went from soooo much consistency in developing something to nothing..... an we were getting about a week out.

[aspen]

I still cant believe it went from soooo much consistency in developing something to nothing..... an we were getting about a week out.

Perhaps the problem was that there wasn’t a clear origin/spark that could be tracked, like the AEWs that spawned Gamma and Delta. We’ll need to look for that the next time a developing system is modeled within 270 hours.

[ElectricStorm]

I still cant believe it went from soooo much consistency in developing something to nothing..... an we were getting about a week out.

Perhaps the problem was that there wasn’t a clear origin/spark that could be tracked, like the AEWs that spawned Gamma and Delta. We’ll need to look for that the next time a developing system is modeled within 270 hours.

I think part of it was also that most of the models have missed the storms by not developing them enough, so when the GFS became very consistent with a hurricane/major forming, everyone took notice.

[gatorcane]

The big clue for me was that the GFS was pretty much alone. The CMC was off and on but when the genesis happy NAVGEM was bearish I knew something was up. If a monster storm down to 929MB was going to happen, I doubt the NAVGEM would show nothing. That model is not the best for tracking storms but it typically shows false positives (developing storms that don’t really form) more than false negatives (not developing storms that do end up forming) especially with Caribbean genesis.

[TheStormExpert]

Most of us thought the GFS was fixed from its Western Caribbean bias.

[TheStormExpert]

*looks at the ECar system from the last few GFS runs and the ECar major in the 12z run*

Nope, I’m not doing this again.

How many more times do you think the GFS will cry wolf this season?

[kevin]

I think that at this point everyone is so done with the GFS model that next time it shows an ominous storm, everyone on this forum probably won't care until it's at +60 hours or something like that.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m done with all the models this season. The Euro wouldn’t even show development until the fact that a storm actually formed before correcting itself. Surely COVID and lack of cruise ships have played a HUGE part in this but still.

[aspen]

Meanwhile in the WPac, all of the models (even the Euro) are in agreement of a powerful Marianas system forming as early as 5-6 days out. This might become a powerful high-ACE late season major like what “future Zeta” failed to become.

[ElectricStorm]

Meanwhile in the WPac, all of the models (even the Euro) are in agreement of a powerful Marianas system forming as early as 5-6 days out. This might become a powerful high-ACE late season major like what “future Zeta” failed to become.

This is the time of year for monsters in the WPAC so we'll see what happens. Untouched rocket fuel out there

[edu2703]

I see some people here are really mad with GFS and I don't judge it. Fortunately for everyone, very unlikely that something will form there, but I know it's painful to spend days analyzing data, waiting hours for models to load and discussing about a phantom storm and I believe that most of us are really tired of monitoring lots of cyclones and disturbances this season.

I believe this thread will be relatively quiet, no matter what GFS and other models show on long range. If it weren't for that phantom, there would already be pages of discussion about the storm developing near Leeward Islands in the latests GFS runs.

[aspen]

Hmm...the GFS’s new Caribbean system is a little interesting. Three things grab my attention:
1.) Development starts well within 300 hours and appears to be moving up
2.) It’s not a typical WCar long-range storm that would likely be a biased phantom
3.) I think I’ve found its source: an AEW that emerges off of Africa later in the week. Gamma and Delta both had trackable AEW sources and they developed

If this system still appears by the end of the week and develops within 240 hours, I’ll actually consider its chances for development.

[LarryWx]

Luis and other folks,
There's increasing model based concern that there will be a new TC form near the end of the month further east in or near the central or E Caribbean. Luis and others, this may need to be a bear watch.

Edit: I just noticed that aspen is already onto this.

[ElectricStorm]

Hmm...the GFS’s new Caribbean system is a little interesting. Three things grab my attention:
1.) Development starts well within 300 hours and appears to be moving up
2.) It’s not a typical WCar long-range storm that would likely be a biased phantom
3.) I think I’ve found its source: an AEW that emerges off of Africa later in the week. Gamma and Delta both had trackable AEW sources and they developed

If this system still appears by the end of the week and develops within 240 hours, I’ll actually consider its chances for development.

0z GFS about to run. We'll see if it still has it with an identifiable source.

[ElectricStorm]

Hmm...the GFS’s new Caribbean system is a little interesting. Three things grab my attention:
1.) Development starts well within 300 hours and appears to be moving up
2.) It’s not a typical WCar long-range storm that would likely be a biased phantom
3.) I think I’ve found its source: an AEW that emerges off of Africa later in the week. Gamma and Delta both had trackable AEW sources and they developed

If this system still appears by the end of the week and develops within 240 hours, I’ll actually consider its chances for development.

0z GFS about to run. We'll see if it still has it with an identifiable source.

Forms around the 300 hour mark from a wave from Africa, which is about 30 hours later than the previous run which started development at 270 so I'm not buying it at the moment, although it will need to be watched as it comes from an actual wave. Gets it down to 959mb at the end of the run. GFS back to its old ways of spinning up a hurricane in the EPAC, which I doubt happens this time of year in a La Nina...