2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

STOP crying wolf GFS!!!

[ElectricStorm]

I'm guessing the 0z GFS will show a much weaker solution as it appears to be the most tame out of the 4 runs.

[ConvergenceZone]

Just as I said early in the season, around the end of September, the season seems to all but shut off. We went from a map full of storms in mid September, to almost nothing in October. This year has been no exception. Not sure why so many people thought that it would continue through November or December. Storms can happen then, but they are very rare....

[ClarCari]

Just as I said early in the season, around the end of September, the season seems to all but shut off. We went from a map full of storms in mid September, to almost nothing in October. This year has been no exception. Not sure why so many people thought that it would continue through November or December. Storms can happen then, but they are very rare....

WHAT??? Two major hurricanes and Gamma arguably being a hurricane as well as another storm or two seeming to be on the way before month's end. We are already ahead in October of some other active years such as 2017. You can't walk yourself into this conversation without noticing how this October has already been...

[ElectricStorm]

Just as I said early in the season, around the end of September, the season seems to all but shut off. We went from a map full of storms in mid September, to almost nothing in October. This year has been no exception. Not sure why so many people thought that it would continue through November or December. Storms can happen then, but they are very rare....

Um... Gamma? Delta? Epsilon? Not sure what your point is here. October has been very active...

[CyclonicFury]

Just as I said early in the season, around the end of September, the season seems to all but shut off. We went from a map full of storms in mid September, to almost nothing in October. This year has been no exception. Not sure why so many people thought that it would continue through November or December. Storms can happen then, but they are very rare....

I think you are forgetting how active the average October really is. October averages about 2 named storms, 1 hurricane, and a major about once every other year. The October ACE average is about 15, and 2020 is likely to be close to twice as much as that.

As for November, named storms are not "very rare" in that month. November has a named storm form in a slight majority of years. November Atlantic TCs very rarely affect the CONUS, but there's a reason why November is part of the official hurricane season.

[Deshaunrob17]

Don't you love it when there are two gifs models to watch for fantasy storms?... Even though they've been more accurate than the Euro this year with tropical cyclones

[AutoPenalti]

Just as I said early in the season, around the end of September, the season seems to all but shut off. We went from a map full of storms in mid September, to almost nothing in October. This year has been no exception. Not sure why so many people thought that it would continue through November or December. Storms can happen then, but they are very rare....

Gamma, Delta, and Epsilon would like a word.

[ConvergenceZone]

Just as I said early in the season, around the end of September, the season seems to all but shut off. We went from a map full of storms in mid September, to almost nothing in October. This year has been no exception. Not sure why so many people thought that it would continue through November or December. Storms can happen then, but they are very rare....

WHAT??? Two major hurricanes and Gamma arguably being a hurricane as well as another storm or two seeming to be on the way before month's end. We are already ahead in October of some other active years such as 2017. You can't walk yourself into this conversation without noticing how this October has already been...

Sorry, I should have elaborated more. I meant Hurricanes effecting the USA mainland. And I'm not buying into Gamma being a hurricane either..... I'm a skeptic on that....Also, of course there will be other ocean bound Storms and maybe carib islands.......You aren't getting my point either. The point I'm trying to get across is the significant drop off in storms after the end of September....Even though that's just after the peak, so you wouldn't expect that type of drop off(In Numbers) after the peak.....You would would think the curve would be more smooth and the amount of storms would gradually decrease. Just look at the number of storms we got before we hit the Greek Alphabet and then the much obvious slowdown after we hit the Greek Alphabet....This all coming in an insanely active year...

[AutoPenalti]

Just as I said early in the season, around the end of September, the season seems to all but shut off. We went from a map full of storms in mid September, to almost nothing in October. This year has been no exception. Not sure why so many people thought that it would continue through November or December. Storms can happen then, but they are very rare....

WHAT??? Two major hurricanes and Gamma arguably being a hurricane as well as another storm or two seeming to be on the way before month's end. We are already ahead in October of some other active years such as 2017. You can't walk yourself into this conversation without noticing how this October has already been...

Sorry, I should have elaborated more. I meant Hurricanes effecting the USA mainland. And I'm not buying into Gamma being a hurricane either..... I'm a skeptic on that....Also, of course there will be a couple of other fish Storms.....You aren't getting my point either. The point I'm trying to get across is the significant drop off in storms after the end of September....You can't argue that point, that would be silly...

Did you expect October to have the same peak as September or..?

[ElectricStorm]

Just as I said early in the season, around the end of September, the season seems to all but shut off. We went from a map full of storms in mid September, to almost nothing in October. This year has been no exception. Not sure why so many people thought that it would continue through November or December. Storms can happen then, but they are very rare....

WHAT??? Two major hurricanes and Gamma arguably being a hurricane as well as another storm or two seeming to be on the way before month's end. We are already ahead in October of some other active years such as 2017. You can't walk yourself into this conversation without noticing how this October has already been...

Sorry, I should have elaborated more. I meant Hurricanes effecting the USA mainland. And I'm not buying into Gamma being a hurricane either..... I'm a skeptic on that....Also, of course there will be a couple of other fish Storms.....You aren't getting my point either. The point I'm trying to get across is the significant drop off in storms after the end of September....You can't argue that point, that would be silly...

I still don't get your point here. Gamma Was very likely a hurricane and will probably be upgraded in post analysis. The CONUS just had Cat 2 landfall and it's possible 95L may be another CONUS landfall... September was record active this year so of course there's going to be a drop off in October lol.

[ConvergenceZone]

WHAT??? Two major hurricanes and Gamma arguably being a hurricane as well as another storm or two seeming to be on the way before month's end. We are already ahead in October of some other active years such as 2017. You can't walk yourself into this conversation without noticing how this October has already been...

Sorry, I should have elaborated more. I meant Hurricanes effecting the USA mainland. And I'm not buying into Gamma being a hurricane either..... I'm a skeptic on that....Also, of course there will be a couple of other fish Storms.....You aren't getting my point either. The point I'm trying to get across is the significant drop off in storms after the end of September....You can't argue that point, that would be silly...

I still don't get your point here. Gamma Was very likely a hurricane and will probably be upgraded in post analysis. The CONUS just had Cat 2 landfall and it's possible 95L may be another CONUS landfall... September was record active this year so of course there's going to be a drop off in October lol.

But why is the drop off usually much more obvious from September to October as compared to from August to September? Since isn't technically the same distance from the "Peak"?

[ConvergenceZone]

WHAT??? Two major hurricanes and Gamma arguably being a hurricane as well as another storm or two seeming to be on the way before month's end. We are already ahead in October of some other active years such as 2017. You can't walk yourself into this conversation without noticing how this October has already been...

Sorry, I should have elaborated more. I meant Hurricanes effecting the USA mainland. And I'm not buying into Gamma being a hurricane either..... I'm a skeptic on that....Also, of course there will be a couple of other fish Storms.....You aren't getting my point either. The point I'm trying to get across is the significant drop off in storms after the end of September....You can't argue that point, that would be silly...

I still don't get your point here. Gamma Was very likely a hurricane and will probably be upgraded in post analysis. The CONUS just had Cat 2 landfall and it's possible 95L may be another CONUS landfall... September was record active this year so of course there's going to be a drop off in October lol.

I went back to re-edit my post as the following:

Sorry, I should have elaborated more. I meant Hurricanes effecting the USA mainland. And I'm not buying into Gamma being a hurricane either..... I'm a skeptic on that....Also, of course there will be other ocean bound Storms and maybe carib islands.......You aren't getting my point either. The point I'm trying to get across is the significant drop off in storms after the end of September....Even though that's just after the peak, so you wouldn't expect that type of drop off(In Numbers) after the peak.....You would would think the curve would be more smooth and the amount of storms would gradually decrease. Just look at the number of storms we got before we hit the Greek Alphabet and then the much obvious slowdown after we hit the Greek Alphabet....This all coming in an insanely active year...

[ElectricStorm]

Sorry, I should have elaborated more. I meant Hurricanes effecting the USA mainland. And I'm not buying into Gamma being a hurricane either..... I'm a skeptic on that....Also, of course there will be a couple of other fish Storms.....You aren't getting my point either. The point I'm trying to get across is the significant drop off in storms after the end of September....You can't argue that point, that would be silly...

I still don't get your point here. Gamma Was very likely a hurricane and will probably be upgraded in post analysis. The CONUS just had Cat 2 landfall and it's possible 95L may be another CONUS landfall... September was record active this year so of course there's going to be a drop off in October lol.

But why is the drop off usually much more obvious from September to October as compared to from August to September? Since isn't technically the same distance from the "Peak"?

October has been much more active than August in recent years

[ConvergenceZone]

I still don't get your point here. Gamma Was very likely a hurricane and will probably be upgraded in post analysis. The CONUS just had Cat 2 landfall and it's possible 95L may be another CONUS landfall... September was record active this year so of course there's going to be a drop off in October lol.

But why is the drop off usually much more obvious from September to October as compared to from August to September? Since isn't technically the same distance from the "Peak"?

October has been much more active than August in recent years

I still believe that in number, July to first 1/2 of September is much more active than last 1/2 of September through December, even though they are equal distance away from the peak..If I'm wrong, maybe it's because most of the storms from October to December don't affect the USA, so I'm not remembering them.

[Deshaunrob17]

I still don't get your point here. Gamma Was very likely a hurricane and will probably be upgraded in post analysis. The CONUS just had Cat 2 landfall and it's possible 95L may be another CONUS landfall... September was record active this year so of course there's going to be a drop off in October lol.

But why is the drop off usually much more obvious from September to October as compared to from August to September? Since isn't technically the same distance from the "Peak"?

October has been much more active than August in recent years

Honestly, August has been trending more and more quiet and the years go by. Not to discount Laura and Harvey, but when look at many of the past Augusts(including this year) systems struggled!!!

[CyclonicFury]

But why is the drop off usually much more obvious from September to October as compared to from August to September? Since isn't technically the same distance from the "Peak"?

October has been much more active than August in recent years

I still believe that in number, July to first 1/2 of September is much more active than last 1/2 of September through December, even though they are equal distance away from the peak..If I'm wrong, maybe it's because most of the storms from October to December don't affect the USA, so I'm not remembering them.

Historically the second half of September and October is much more active than July.

It's not like this October has been free of US threats, either...Delta was only the second Category 2+ US hurricane landfall in October since Wilma.

[SconnieCane]

For some reason October, while not as prolific as September, has produced some of the nastiest tropical cyclones around the globe including the strongest on record in three basins. Opal, Mitch, Wilma, Michael, Patricia, Tip, Hagibis...

[Hurricanehink]

And let's not forget that Sandy struck New Jersey on October 29th. Given this season, I fully expect another hurricane to form. Since 1995, we've had Tanya 95, Marco 96, Nicole 98, Lenny 99, Michelle/Noel/Olga 01, Epsilon 05, Noel 07, Paloma 08, Ida 09, Shary & Tomas 10, Kate 15, Otto 16, Oscar 18, and Pablo 19 all form after this date and reach hurricane status. That's 17 in 26 years. Also, Rina 11 formed on today's date in 2011.

[ClarCari]

Sorry, I should have elaborated more. I meant Hurricanes effecting the USA mainland. And I'm not buying into Gamma being a hurricane either..... I'm a skeptic on that....Also, of course there will be a couple of other fish Storms.....You aren't getting my point either. The point I'm trying to get across is the significant drop off in storms after the end of September....You can't argue that point, that would be silly...

I still don't get your point here. Gamma Was very likely a hurricane and will probably be upgraded in post analysis. The CONUS just had Cat 2 landfall and it's possible 95L may be another CONUS landfall... September was record active this year so of course there's going to be a drop off in October lol.

I went back to re-edit my post as the following:

Sorry, I should have elaborated more. I meant Hurricanes effecting the USA mainland. And I'm not buying into Gamma being a hurricane either..... I'm a skeptic on that....Also, of course there will be other ocean bound Storms and maybe carib islands.......You aren't getting my point either. The point I'm trying to get across is the significant drop off in storms after the end of September....Even though that's just after the peak, so you wouldn't expect that type of drop off(In Numbers) after the peak.....You would would think the curve would be more smooth and the amount of storms would gradually decrease. Just look at the number of storms we got before we hit the Greek Alphabet and then the much obvious slowdown after we hit the Greek Alphabet....This all coming in an insanely active year...

Since this is the models thread I’m going to tie in the models here as well as help you out.
You cannot look at curves in an individual season like that. We haven’t had a “average” season in over 25 years. Other years since either went below or above. The curve only applied to all seasons as a whole.
For this year, the quality per term has actually gone up in October. There is not a single naysayer on twitter who denied the likes of Vicky, Wilfred, Alpha, etc., that can deny any of the TC this month were absolutely name-worthy. That’s a sign that October is quite consistent with this season in having very above-average activity.

As for U.S. effects people will and should always expect a risk for storms. Noone has really called it that a storm was forsure gonna smash into CONUS this month as a major. And then you bring up named storms again so im thinking you have two different points. But now 4 and perhaps 5 named storms before next week ends and with already 2 majors and arguably all 3 so far hurricanes is not an indication of October failing our expectations. It’s meeting mines personally as this years October setup looked “spookier” lol than 2017 and alas is more active this year.

And funny enough to add to the overall thread, while the models of course overestimated how soon 95L was gonna form, every storm this month has had decent model support indicating it’s development, whereas quite a few storms from July-Sept. had little to none prior. It really helps to rethink when modeling is useful during a certain lull in the ATL and when it isn’t. (95L rn for ex.)