ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

I thought PDO was positive.

That's what I think too. We saw positive PDO readings for some months now, didn't we? Is it expected to return to negative in the coming months? Also, if this brewing El Nino turns out to be a strong one, is it going to help sustain +PDO?

The PDO as the name suggest is a multi-year index. Several months or even a year doesn't change the overall state it is in. Just like in 2009 the El Nino turned the PDO positive for several months but it is still regarded as -PDO era from 2007-present. It takes several years of +PDO readings (subsequently on and off El Nino vs multiple La Nina's) to call it a +PDO. What the readings do say is that short term the PDO is not fighting whatever Nino that is trying to turn on.

[stephen23]

Finally some warming in the Atlantic MDR and Caribbean.

[Yellow Evan]

I thought PDO was positive.

That's what I think too. We saw positive PDO readings for some months now, didn't we? Is it expected to return to negative in the coming months? Also, if this brewing El Nino turns out to be a strong one, is it going to help sustain +PDO?

The PDO as the name suggest is a multi-year index. Several months or even a year doesn't change the overall state it is in. Just like in 2009 the El Nino turned the PDO positive for several months but it is still regarded as -PDO era from 2007-present. It takes several years of +PDO readings (subsequently on and off El Nino vs multiple La Nina's) to call it a +PDO. What the readings do say is that short term the PDO is not fighting whatever Nino that is trying to turn on.

Yea, though PDO tends to have up phases within down phases and visa versa. PDO was positive in the early 2000's despite an overall negative phase since 1995 (or 1998).

[xtyphooncyclonex]

As of now, I can now see the warm pool getting nearer to the surface. Are we currently at warm neutral?

[cycloneye]

As of now, I can now see the warm pool getting nearer to the surface. Are we currently at warm neutral?

If this data is right,Nino 3.4 is in cold neutral borderine dead neutral.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

As of now, I can now see the warm pool getting nearer to the surface. Are we currently at warm neutral?

If this data is right,Nino 3.4 is in cold neutral borderine dead neutral.

http://oi60.tinypic.com/fteypl.jpg

Oh.. The question now: When could we see our first positive [warm neutral] anomalies and first El Nino threshold temps? And will this be Modoki or Traditional?


I don't like the effects of El Nino here. It causes a drought and high temperatures across our country, and occasionally causes famines and starvation.

[cycloneye]

When could we see our first positive [warm neutral] anomalies and first El Nino threshold temps? And will this be Modoki or Traditional?

You can follow on a daily basis the data by going to the first post of this thread where there are plenty of graphics including the one I posted above. Modoki or traditional is not known yet but I suspect that by Mid April thru May there will be a better idea.

[dexterlabio]

Oh.. The question now: When could we see our first positive [warm neutral] anomalies and first El Nino threshold temps? And will this be Modoki or Traditional?

I don't like the effects of El Nino here. It causes a drought and high temperatures across our country, and occasionally causes famines and starvation.

Here here. The previous El Nino's, especially the strong ones which I had gone through (1982-1983, 1997-1998) brought very dry and scourging condition in SE Asia. The last drought and extreme heat outbreak we experienced was during the 2009-2010 El Nino..and I tell you the drought during the first months of 1983 was far worse than that... We couldn't even get a single drop of water from deep wells for weeks.

It's interesting though that most of the active cyclone seasons in SE Asia and NW Pacific was during El Nino years...and yet the Philippines have always had a problem with drought.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Oh.. The question now: When could we see our first positive [warm neutral] anomalies and first El Nino threshold temps? And will this be Modoki or Traditional?

I don't like the effects of El Nino here. It causes a drought and high temperatures across our country, and occasionally causes famines and starvation.

Here here. The previous El Nino's, especially the strong ones which I had gone through (1982-1983, 1997-1998) brought very dry and scourging condition in SE Asia. The last drought and extreme heat outbreak we experienced was during the 2009-2010 El Nino..and I tell you the drought during the first months of 1983 was far worse than that... We couldn't even get a single drop of water from deep wells for weeks.

It's interesting though that most of the active cyclone seasons in SE Asia and NW Pacific was during El Nino years...and yet the Philippines have always had a problem with drought.

Different scenario in Cebu. We still get some rain, but is still WAY below average and is still harmful to our plants. We get rain probably 50% of normal and we get DRY DAYS AHEAD!

[Ntxw]

Nothing new to report today. Daily SOI did notch down a little but doesn't effect 30 day as we also lost very weak negatives vs the bigger gain.

Only news to give from the sub-surface is the cold pool below (west of 100W) is now completely gone replaced by 2C+ anomalies. What this means is Nino 1+2 is done falling, now up is the only way it can go. Unless colder waters appear magically out of somewhere.



The sub-surface of 2014 is essentially now a mirror image of March 1997. The ENSO anomaly for mid March 1997 was -0.4C as we are in now. The last week of March achieved to 0.0C. Can we do the same in 2014?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nothing new to report today. Daily SOI did notch down a little but doesn't effect 30 day as we also lost very weak negatives vs the bigger gain.

Only news to give from the sub-surface is the cold pool below (west of 100W) is now completely gone replaced by 2C+ anomalies. What this means is Nino 1+2 is done falling, now up is the only way it can go. Unless colder waters appear magically out of somewhere.



The sub-surface of 2014 is essentially now a mirror image of March 1997. The ENSO anomaly for mid March 1997 was -0.4C as we are in now. The last week of March achieved to 0.0C. Can we do the same in 2014?

Current Nino 3.4 Index says it's currently -0.05 and I saw it on the FIRST PAGE of this topic. Maybe it could reach +0.5 on Mid to Late-April.

[Kingarabian]

Nothing new to report today. Daily SOI did notch down a little but doesn't effect 30 day as we also lost very weak negatives vs the bigger gain.

Only news to give from the sub-surface is the cold pool below (west of 100W) is now completely gone replaced by 2C+ anomalies. What this means is Nino 1+2 is done falling, now up is the only way it can go. Unless colder waters appear magically out of somewhere.

[img][/img]

The sub-surface of 2014 is essentially now a mirror image of March 1997. The ENSO anomaly for mid March 1997 was -0.4C as we are in now. The last week of March achieved to 0.0C. Can we do the same in 2014?

Most certainly can. Nino 3.4 has been meandering just slightly less than 0.0C for the majority of the week now.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw, IMO this upcoming El Nino looks like after it peaks whatever number it does so,it comes down before 2014 is over. I say this because I see the models bending down at the end of their forecasts. How do you see it lasting?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, IMO this upcoming El Nino looks like after it peaks whatever number it does so,it comes down before 2014 is over. I say this because I see the models bending down at the end of their forecasts. How do you see it lasting?

ENSO events Nino/Nina peak in fall and winter of NHEM. Traditional Nino's tend to fade a little sooner while modokis like 09-10 and 02-03 have a second peak early the following year.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

All Nino regions are finally warming up!

[Kingarabian]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nino 1+2 is warming the fastest. Could we see a traditional El Nino?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Also, the sub-surface warm pool over the Pacific is enlarging, strengthening and moving eastward. I'm really interested and looking forward to our *future* El Nino! But, not its huge devastation in Southeast Asia.

[Ntxw]

This was tweeted by Mike Ventrice. While as mentioned a couple of readings does not dictate a +PDO overall, but it sure doesn't hurt.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This was tweeted by Mike Ventrice. While as mentioned a couple of readings does not dictate a +PDO overall, but it sure doesn't hurt.

When was the last time we had a +PDO?